Thirty days until the Gold Coast marathon, here are sixty profiles, two each day.

Exposed form... Westcott has struggled to run under 68mins for a half in years while Adams ran a 62min half and has run many sub 2:14s in past few years. Westcott hasn’t been that fast since like 2009!

Westcott is old as balls!! wrote:

Exposed form... Westcott has struggled to run under 68mins for a half in years while Adams ran a 62min half and has run many sub 2:14s in past few years. Westcott hasn’t been that fast since like 2009!

Gotta love a slight exaggeration. 2009 should read 2013: 2.14.21 in Melb. Westcott ran 65.55 in 2016 warmup for the Olympics. And Adams was only under 2.14 in 2014 and 2017. We will see in 8 days.

Bernard Lagat is my choice for 12th across the line. He is 44yo and ranked 543. There are so many layers to writing something of interest about him. Went to college in the US from 1996 to 2000. Those last two years had an interesting progression in the mile and 1500m all improving his previous best times. March 99 ran an indoor mile in 3.55.65 then May 4.02.04 outdoors. August ran 1500 in 3.30.61 than April 2000 broke 4 outdoors for the first of many times in 3.54.97. Took that down to 3.49.84 in August and the next month won bronze in the Sydney Olympics in the 1500. Represented the US from 2004 or 5. More about him soon.

Only four more days and so much more to say. I will resume soon. Mostly done already in a notebook, just have to type it here.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Bernard Lagat is my choice for 12th across the line. He is 44yo and ranked 543. There are so many layers to writing something of interest about him. Went to college in the US from 1996 to 2000. Those last two years had an interesting progression in the mile and 1500m all improving his previous best times. March 99 ran an indoor mile in 3.55.65 then May 4.02.04 outdoors. August ran 1500 in 3.30.61 than April 2000 broke 4 outdoors for the first of many times in 3.54.97. Took that down to 3.49.84 in August and the next month won bronze in the Sydney Olympics in the 1500. Represented the US from 2004 or 5. More about him soon.

He has an imposing record at world champs, gold double in Osaka 2007 at 1500 and 5000, and three silvers other years. He is one of only four men to break 13min for the 5000 for three consecutive years of 2011-13. Add in the same effort in 2005 and 06. Ran his one and only marathon in New York last year, passing halfway in 66.06, but fading to eighth among Americans in 2.17.20. I am guessing he could run 2.14 if he goes out more conservatively.

Twelfth woman will be Yomogi Akasaka, 23yo and ranked 357. Her best is 2.32.28 in finishing 18th in Nagoya last year. Was 29th there this year in 2.34.05. Best at the half is 2.11.41 for 9th in Marugame in 2016, also running 4th in Matsue in 2.11.55 six weeks later.

Next man may be Noah Kigen, 30yo and ranked 233. His best time is 2.12.03 from Vienna last year, coming 5th. Also fifth was his best half time of 60.25 from Venlo, Netherlands, in 2017. That same year won another half in Udine, Italy.

Next female should be Nami Hashimoto, 27yo and ranked 379. In this her first year of running further than a half marathon competitively, this will be fourth event above that distance. I like to extrapolate from a shorter run what time may be achieved if only the athlete could maintain the pace. Nami ran 30k in 1.46.30, which at just under three quarters of marathon distance, equates to 2.29.48 over the classic distance. Her debut marathon is her PB at 2.33.22, 25th at Nagoya. I wrote a profile on her for the Boston marathon, obviously her first major, where i thought she could finish 24th and she was 27th in 2.40.41.

the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?

Aussiestatman wrote:

the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?

I let this conundrum delay me a few days when i didn't have a few days to let it delay me. i now have a window of a few hours and a new resolve. i will include Nobeoka 2019 with an asterisk, sort of like Grandma's at Duluth, CIM Sacramento, and Boston. so here goes:

14th finisher may be Hiroki Sugawa, 28yo and ranked 706 as a road runner. IAAF doesn't seem to recognize his PB of 2.11.46 in Nobeoka this year. i don't know where that time placed him in that run or even when that run took place? If it didn't happen, his only marathon was here in 2014 when 13th in 2.24.14. His consistent times of 1.03 plus for halfs neither support nor put doubt on the chances of him running that better time, in my opinion. He ran a slower half in the Netherlands only 23 days ago. Lets see what this morning brings.

Next woman could be Aussie Melanie Panayiotou, who turns 35 in two weeks and is ranked 544. Her best of 2.34.35 was in Rotterdam in 2015, finishing 5th. She ran in Hamburg at the end of April, 14th in 2.36.08.

Next overall finisher will be Saeki Makino [Sae Makino on his IAAF profile], ranked 587 and who knows how old? This will be his fifth marathon this year, including Vancouver. That gives me a clue that he may have traveled with Yuki and Yuko? His best among them was 13th in Seoul, 2.14.36. Among his three marathons last year was a win in my hometown, Brisbane. He debuted in 2011, so you would guess he is early 30's?

Fifteenth female could be Tennile Ellis in her debut. Ranked 573 as a road runner and age not known. Her best half time was here in 2017 in 1.15.13, finishing 6th. She had run the half here 5 consecutive years from 2013 to 2017, improving her time each year, so can i guess she is mid 20's?

Aussiestatman wrote:

the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?

Sixteenth man may be Gunji, 28yo and ranked 1228. If Nobeoka is on the table, his best was there this year in 2.12.55. If not, it was Paris 2017, 21st in 2.19.03. Has run three halfs in under 1.04 and another two under 65 so you would say, like Bernard Lagat, he hits the wall in his marathons. Nobeoka is the anomaly.

It’s 3.23am here, four hours until the start. Need a break for food and iced coffee.

Black caviar wrote:

As much as I like Westcott, Adams will beat him home...Benny saint my dark horse . Disregard his first marathon. Lagat runs 2:11.50

Benny Saint next, IMO, and i’ll explain why?

Sceptical wrote:

I'm surprised you've put Westcott as first Aussie. 3 years post his 2:15 at Rio and post a recent 1:09 Half, 30:36 10k I think he's closer to 2:20 now. Would have thought Adams, St Lawrence and Harman all likely to finish ahead of him

At last, you say, St Lawrence. But still no Harman until 20th.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Sceptical wrote:

I'm surprised you've put Westcott as first Aussie. 3 years post his 2:15 at Rio and post a recent 1:09 Half, 30:36 10k I think he's closer to 2:20 now. Would have thought Adams, St Lawrence and Harman all likely to finish ahead of him

At last, you say, St Lawrence. But still no Harman until 20th.

eighty minutes until the start.

Aussiestatman wrote:

Black caviar wrote:

As much as I like Westcott, Adams will beat him home...Benny saint my dark horse . Disregard his first marathon. Lagat runs 2:11.50

Benny Saint next, IMO, and i’ll explain why?

He is 37yo and ranked 419 as a road runner. His PB is 2.24.26, finishing 66th in Berlin in 2017. His best at the half is 63.41 in Gifu 2015, running 8th. Like Gunji, has two other performances at the half under 66 min over 6 years, so i guess seems to suffer 'the wall'. Can he convert today to a 2.17 full, we will see soon. His claim to fame over 10000 on the track is that for 3 weeks in 2013, he had the world leading time of 27.37.55, but ended that year with 34th best.