Aussiestatman wrote:
Next man to finish is the legend that is Yuki Kawauchi. His wife is running here too. Last year they both won their sections of the Vancouver marathon. There is so much to write, more later.
Gotta love a slight exaggeration. 2009 should read 2013: 2.14.21 in Melb. Westcott ran 65.55 in 2016 warmup for the Olympics. And Adams was only under 2.14 in 2014 and 2017. We will see in 8 days.
Westcott is old as balls!! wrote:
Exposed form... Westcott has struggled to run under 68mins for a half in years while Adams ran a 62min half and has run many sub 2:14s in past few years. Westcott hasn’t been that fast since like 2009!
He has an imposing record at world champs, gold double in Osaka 2007 at 1500 and 5000, and three silvers other years. He is one of only four men to break 13min for the 5000 for three consecutive years of 2011-13. Add in the same effort in 2005 and 06. Ran his one and only marathon in New York last year, passing halfway in 66.06, but fading to eighth among Americans in 2.17.20. I am guessing he could run 2.14 if he goes out more conservatively.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Bernard Lagat is my choice for 12th across the line. He is 44yo and ranked 543. There are so many layers to writing something of interest about him. Went to college in the US from 1996 to 2000. Those last two years had an interesting progression in the mile and 1500m all improving his previous best times. March 99 ran an indoor mile in 3.55.65 then May 4.02.04 outdoors. August ran 1500 in 3.30.61 than April 2000 broke 4 outdoors for the first of many times in 3.54.97. Took that down to 3.49.84 in August and the next month won bronze in the Sydney Olympics in the 1500. Represented the US from 2004 or 5. More about him soon.
I let this conundrum delay me a few days when i didn't have a few days to let it delay me. i now have a window of a few hours and a new resolve. i will include Nobeoka 2019 with an asterisk, sort of like Grandma's at Duluth, CIM Sacramento, and Boston. so here goes:
Aussiestatman wrote:
the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?
Sixteenth man may be Gunji, 28yo and ranked 1228. If Nobeoka is on the table, his best was there this year in 2.12.55. If not, it was Paris 2017, 21st in 2.19.03. Has run three halfs in under 1.04 and another two under 65 so you would say, like Bernard Lagat, he hits the wall in his marathons. Nobeoka is the anomaly.
Aussiestatman wrote:
the next few places become difficult as to whether you include the times recorded for Hiroki Sugawa and Takahiro Gunji in Nobeoka this year. i can't find their times on the iaaf website but they are listed as their PB's on the official elite list on the gold coast site. makes a big difference. sugawa best could be 2.11.46 or is it 2.24.14?
Black caviar wrote:
As much as I like Westcott, Adams will beat him home...Benny saint my dark horse . Disregard his first marathon. Lagat runs 2:11.50
Sceptical wrote:
I'm surprised you've put Westcott as first Aussie. 3 years post his 2:15 at Rio and post a recent 1:09 Half, 30:36 10k I think he's closer to 2:20 now. Would have thought Adams, St Lawrence and Harman all likely to finish ahead of him
Aussiestatman wrote:
Sceptical wrote:
I'm surprised you've put Westcott as first Aussie. 3 years post his 2:15 at Rio and post a recent 1:09 Half, 30:36 10k I think he's closer to 2:20 now. Would have thought Adams, St Lawrence and Harman all likely to finish ahead of him
At last, you say, St Lawrence. But still no Harman until 20th.
He is 37yo and ranked 419 as a road runner. His PB is 2.24.26, finishing 66th in Berlin in 2017. His best at the half is 63.41 in Gifu 2015, running 8th. Like Gunji, has two other performances at the half under 66 min over 6 years, so i guess seems to suffer 'the wall'. Can he convert today to a 2.17 full, we will see soon. His claim to fame over 10000 on the track is that for 3 weeks in 2013, he had the world leading time of 27.37.55, but ended that year with 34th best.
Aussiestatman wrote:
Black caviar wrote:
As much as I like Westcott, Adams will beat him home...Benny saint my dark horse . Disregard his first marathon. Lagat runs 2:11.50
Benny Saint next, IMO, and i’ll explain why?