Caster Semenya to run 2000m and 3000m ... how does this make sense?

The reason the ban was only for the 400 to mile is that the IAAF had to find some sort of scientific data to back their position.

The number of women, even at the world elite level, with Caster's level of T is extremely small. When you have a very small number in a study, it can skew the outcome. It did in their study. High T was only found to help in the 400-mile so those were the only distances the IAAF had scientific proof to ban.

If 46 XY DSDs were more common, say 1 out of every 10 women, then the database would be much larger and 46 XY DSDs would most likely dominate all track and field events.

Someone help me out here... how rare is the 46 XY DSD that Caster has? I've seen numbers as low as 1 in 10,000 and as high as 1 in 400 (in certain regions of some countries).

Thank you for your response.

The benefits of testosterone in sports are well-established and obvious. In sports as diverse as swimming, cycling, and weight lifting men are, on average, better (stronger, faster, etc) than women. This is true in every country on every continent and has been documented for decades if not centuries. The exceptions, if any exist (ultra long distance swimming?), are exceptions that prove the rule.

Do you think that since Caster Semenya competed mainly at 400 meters, 800 meters and 1500 meters, that there is insufficient data to support regulations regarding her involvement in the 1000m ? No. Common sense tells us that if XY athletes have an unfair advantage at the 800m and the 1500m, they also have an unfair advantage in the 1000m . No 1000m data were needed. This is called interpolation and it is a perfectly reasonable method.

By the same logic, extrapolation to both shorter and longer events is reasonable, i.e, if Semenya has a unfair advantage in the 1500m she surely has one in the mile as well, even if there were no mile -specific data to support such an inference. The same logic should have been applied across the board, in my opinion.

colorunner123 wrote:

Do you think that since Caster Semenya competed mainly at 400 meters, 800 meters and 1500 meters, that there is insufficient data to support regulations regarding her involvement in the 1000m ? No. Common sense tells us that if XY athletes have an unfair advantage at the 800m and the 1500m, they also have an unfair advantage in the 1000m . No 1000m data were needed. This is called interpolation and it is a perfectly reasonable method.

By the same logic, extrapolation to both shorter and longer events is reasonable, i.e, if Semenya has a unfair advantage in the 1500m she surely has one in the mile as well, even if there were no mile -specific data to support such an inference. The same logic should have been applied across the board, in my opinion.

I think you mean “by completely different logic”. You even used the terms, so don’t play dumb and act like you don’t understand. Interpolation is working within a data set, whereas extrapolation is applying your model to an untested region. Making assumptions, however right you may think you are in doing so, is not valid or reasonable and would not hold up in court. The IAAF did the research sufficient only to bar Semenya, Wambui, and Niyonsaba from their primary events. Anything more would require additional evidence.

Evidence to confirm the obvious. And to refute propagandists.

She could also participate in the 1610m run.

Any actual females who line up next to Caster are just contributing to the problem. Walk off... each and every time Semenya is scheduled to compete against actual females.

This sport is already being sunk with all the drug related issues..... this other nonsense has to go.

Create a third category and have them compete against their own, just like Special Olympics.

Time to BOYcott wrote:

Any actual females who line up next to Caster are just contributing to the problem. Walk off... each and every time Semenya is scheduled to compete against actual females.

This sport is already being sunk with all the drug related issues..... this other nonsense has to go.

Create a third category and have them compete against their own, just like Special Olympics.

The Pre 3000 is loaded and Semenya is unlikely to finish in the top 10. Why should anyone boycott the race? To protect the 11th place finisher?

fisky wrote:

Someone help me out here... how rare is the 46 XY DSD that Caster has? I've seen numbers as low as 1 in 10,000 and as high as 1 in 400 (in certain regions of some countries).

We don't know how rare 5-ard is. There are some estimates of other DSDs. See "population figures" below.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

The Pre 3000 is loaded and Semenya is unlikely to finish in the top 10. Why should anyone boycott the race? To protect the 11th place finisher?

I think you are underestimating how competitive she'll be. I remember watching Semenya win a 3000 a couple of years ago. Granted, it was much lower level of competition but she lingered and passed effortlessly.

Ability is ability. It is always dangerous to make assumptions that demote someone with unusual ability. Semenya is not going to start falling down or running backwards simply because it is a much longer distance than we are accustomed to seeing her at.

Once the testosterone ruling came down with the specified distances involved. I guarantee Semenya simply started adjusting her training toward the events not on the list.

Not exactly a perfect comparison but it reminds me somewhat of golf and the recent ruling that banned anchoring the club to the body, and specifically the putter. Fans on golf message boards were delighted because they thought it meant we would never see those long putters again. However, if was hardly a ban on the clubs...merely an adjustment on how they could be used. Bernhard Langer on the senior tour simply moved the butt end a quarter inch or so away from his chest. No big deal. Not anchored and he is still winning. Adam Scott has gone back to the long putter on the regular tour.

Now you've got outraged fans on the major golf forums, in disbelief that the clubs are still being used. They are whining all over the place, insisting that they club is still being anchored.

I mention this only because I expect the same type of thing here and on other track sites. Semenya may not be immediately a medal threat at the new distances. But I don't think it will take too long. And then the outrage returns, with posters condemning the ruling as an arbitrary joke in terms of what events were specified.

People are calling the iaaf dumb for only banning her from 400-1500m but they have to realize the iaaf knows that testosterone helps in every event. Caster challenges the integrity of the sport and is a huge risk. Therefore they took the safe route and banned her and the other intersection 800m runners from their primary events. Have to win the war battle by battle.

I’m happy that she will continue to compete. To be honest, I would almost always watch the women 800m when she ran. I doubt that I will tune in to watch women run 1:58 or 1:59 ( or even 2:00). She may make the 2000m (or 3000m) interesting, so I will watch that instead.

Ffgggg wrote:

I’m happy that she will continue to compete. To be honest, I would almost always watch the women 800m when she ran. I doubt that I will tune in to watch women run 1:58 or 1:59 ( or even 2:00). She may make the 2000m (or 3000m) interesting, so I will watch that instead.

She is such a sweetie pie -

Everyone who thinks she will be a factor go back and watch the Lausanne dl 1500m from last year. She got dropped by many, not even breaking 4 if I recall. This distance will be twice as long and while I’m not saying she will be terrible, I would be shocked if she hangs with Ayana, obiri, dibaba, Hassan, etc

Oh fuk off you bigoted idiot.

In response to an earlier question, DSD46XY athletes - as Semenya is - are estimated by the WHO to be 0.01% of the population. Yet the first three athletes in the 800m at Rio were DSD athletes. As the former Olympic swimmer and now BBC commentator Sharron Davies has said, "how can anyone think these athletes don't have an advantage in women's sport?" That advantage won't go away in other events.

It isn't so much about the events anomaly - that only proves the IAAF are dumb. The real issue is we had always men's and women's events, as expected everywhere ever throughout the world until only recently and only in the PC West, where now we have men's events and women's events and women+others events.

This is all about handling stupid conclusions resulting from false PC assumptions. So let's do that but seriously. We should either go whole hog-PC and make events 'non-gender neutral' where men will win everything. Or take the multiple gender argument on its face and still have boring old vanilla men's and women's events but also much more vibrant competitions for the dfgs and the mooses, and the faqgz, and the xyzs and everyone of the other 805 genders currently recognized on Western college campuses.

Even debating this means we're doomed as a civilization I fear.

Nick D. wrote:

Even debating this means we're doomed as a civilization.

+1

Non-PC China, Russia and other non-PC controlled countries will rise to take the place of the west.

Well, her her 3000 PR is 9:36 so she has a ways to go. It was discussed in another thread that no male or female has ever been world class at both 400 and 3000+.

The Semenya issue is over; she can no longer compete in events where she had an unfair advantage. The Pre 3000 might be the last time we see her in a major international meet.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

Well, her her 3000 PR is 9:36 so she has a ways to go. It was discussed in another thread that no male or female has ever been world class at both 400 and 3000+.

Well, Semenya is strictly speaking neither male nor female and very few people have tried to be world class at both 400m and 3000m. And we don't even know how hard Semenya tried at the 1500m.

The fastest 800m/3000m combinations is probably from (doper) Kazankina (1:54.94 and 8:22). I don't expect Semenya to run that fast but it does not seem impossible.