Finished my season with a 4:46 1600 PR and a 10:25 3200 pr. I’m almost done with a week long break after my season that’s intended to heal my legs. I ran 35-40 MPW and I will be hitting 30 next week then increasing mileage to 45 by July. What is a good guess for my 5k time on July 4th?
16:50
Using VDOT to convert your 3200 to an equivalent performance would give a 5K of 16:49. I'd suggest going and trying something like 5 x 1K @ predicted 5K pace (or 3x mile @ predicted 5K pace) with 2 min / 400m recovery jogging between reps. Let us know how it goes!
17:10, accounting for your not being in peak condition, and conditions being warm. If you have no competition, maybe 17:30.
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