Forest Gump here wrote:
This probably will go well as his sub 6 hour 100k last Saturday. He was just 55 minutes slower.
A 1:04 HM indicates a 2:13:26 Marathon according to one of the race calculators. 2 Minutes fast is a lot in this speed bracket. And isn't the next OT on a hilly course?
I am not seeing a strategy here. Walmsley is going back and forts between 100 milers, HM, 100k and Marathons. That that make sense? Probably not.
I know a conversion chart may say a 64 equates to 2:13. But in the real world I know a lot of 64 guys and none of them can run 2:13. Most of the 2:13 guys I know have run 62 high to 63 low in the half. I'll be honest I don't think the fact that he has an Ultra inclination makes much of a difference in this one.
Also you're right about the next OT course being hilly, it will be brutal. Remember Jim ran his half at Houston which may be the fastest non net downhill course in America. He's not running anywhere close to the standard at the trials and I would be surprised if he was under 2:15.