Semenya 5000m potential? 14:xx? 13:xx?

Caster equals a lesser D-1 male runner to better than average male D-2. Stop it right now with Caster and 13:xx 5K!

No, her 400 time is equivalent to a 44.5 for men. Nobody with that kind of speed is going to be good at 5/10. Do you think Rudisha would be good at 5000? Losing weight won't change the kind of muscles she has.

Two words: Steve Ovett

What about Steve Ovett wrote:

Two words: Steve Ovett

All I could find for Ovett was 47.5 which is far from world class.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

What about Steve Ovett wrote:

Two words: Steve Ovett

All I could find for Ovett was 47.5 which is far from world class.

Yes, but he went on to win the Commonwealth 5000m late in his career.

Yes. . wrote:

SDSU Aztec wrote:

All I could find for Ovett was 47.5 which is far from world class.

Yes, but he went on to win the Commonwealth 5000m late in his career.

Poster stated no one can be world class at both 400m and 5000m. Many would agree that at a slightly younger age, Caster could have earned at least a bronze, in either Olympics or World Championships in 400m. You responded, Ovett. Ovett never would have time qualified in 400m at Olympics. Ovett never was capable of earning at least a bronze, 5000m, Olympics or W.C.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

No, her 400 time is equivalent to a 44.5 for men. Nobody with that kind of speed is going to be good at 5/10. Do you think Rudisha would be good at 5000? Losing weight won't change the kind of muscles she has.

you probably also wouldn't think a world class female 400m runner with 49.6 speed would be able to run 3:59 for 1500m.

stater of nonsense! wrote:

Ovett never was capable of earning at least a bronze, 5000m, Olympics or W.C.

Ovett broke the 2 mile world record. 3:48 miler with tremendous strength, I think if he wanted to focus on the 5000 he could've won medals at the olympic 5000m and probably gone sub 13.

We just need to look to Jamin for the answers. They have a very similar build, 400, 800, and 1500m PRs. Jamin recently broke 15 in the 5000m and is hoping to run 14:45. I would expect Semenya to be in a similar league.

Yes he would've wrote:

stater of nonsense! wrote:

Ovett never was capable of earning at least a bronze, 5000m, Olympics or W.C.

Ovett broke the 2 mile world record. 3:48 miler with tremendous strength, I think if he wanted to focus on the 5000 he could've won medals at the olympic 5000m and probably gone sub 13.

Oh sure! Ovett preferred to race 1:52.xx 800m final at 1984 Olympics. Ovett preferred to drop out of 1500m final, 1984 Olympics. Ovett was a secret sub-13 5000m runner. Go back to your beer drinking.

Too lazy to master 5k, running 150-200k a week.

Ovett's cousin wrote:

Yes he would've wrote:

Ovett broke the 2 mile world record. 3:48 miler with tremendous strength, I think if he wanted to focus on the 5000 he could've won medals at the olympic 5000m and probably gone sub 13.

Oh sure! Ovett preferred to race 1:52.xx 800m final at 1984 Olympics. Ovett preferred to drop out of 1500m final, 1984 Olympics. Ovett was a secret sub-13 5000m runner. Go back to your beer drinking.

You're smoking crack if you don't think Ovett could've won the Olympic 5000m and went sub 13. We are dealing with Steve MF Ovett here, a GOD among men.

Look at him for goodness sake:

You're on crack wrote:

Ovett's cousin wrote:

Oh sure! Ovett preferred to race 1:52.xx 800m final at 1984 Olympics. Ovett preferred to drop out of 1500m final, 1984 Olympics. Ovett was a secret sub-13 5000m runner. Go back to your beer drinking.

You're smoking crack if you don't think Ovett could've won the Olympic 5000m and went sub 13. We are dealing with Steve MF Ovett here, a GOD among men.

Look at him for goodness sake:

http://media.gettyimages.com/photos/steve-ovett-smiles-as-he-crosses-the-line-to-win-a-1500-metres-race-picture-id506053752

Ovett was indeed a god and one of my favorite runners, but he wasn't a world class 400 runner. He did run a 8:13 WR, but that really isn't that fast when compared to his mile speed. Ritz,who was no where near as fast in the mile, ran 8:11. If Ovett lost that much pace going from 1 to 2 miles, there is no way he would have broken 13.

Low 15's. Maybe under 15 if she really wanted it but I don't think she'll ever put in the serious mileage to get there.

I don’t know the specifics of Semenya’s training, but an 800m specialist who’s been training at a world-class level for a decade is bound to have fairly well-developed endurance. I bet she logs some decent mileage and tempo sessions in base training, especially if she’s running good early-season 5ks.

I don’t believe there’s reason to bring in “male equivalent times” into the estimates. Think of her like any other muscular 49/1:54/3:59 runner you know.

If she spent the next 4 months focused on each of the following events, respectively:

200 - 23.1

400 - 49.5

800 - 1:54.0

1500 - 3:56.5

5000 - 15:15

10000 - 32:30

1/2 - 72:00

Marathon - 2:40

Rankerchief wrote:

I don’t know the specifics of Semenya’s training, but an 800m specialist who’s been training at a world-class level for a decade is bound to have fairly well-developed endurance. I bet she logs some decent mileage and tempo sessions in base training, especially if she’s running good early-season 5ks.

I don’t believe there’s reason to bring in “male equivalent times” into the estimates. Think of her like any other muscular 49/1:54/3:59 runner you know.

If she spent the next 4 months focused on each of the following events, respectively:

200 - 23.1

400 - 49.5

800 - 1:54.0

1500 - 3:56.5

5000 - 15:15

10000 - 32:30

1/2 - 72:00

Marathon - 2:40

She is already in 15:10 shape.

Rankerchief wrote:

If she spent the next 4 months focused on each of the following events, respectively:

200 - 23.1

400 - 49.5

800 - 1:54.0

1500 - 3:56.5

5000 - 15:15

So she spent 10 years going from 1:55,x to 1:54 ,2 in her best event.

She ran 1500m somewhat seriously since 2017 so for about two years and managed 3:59. Maybe she didn't race enough good 1500m races, but it is not at all obvious that she would easily and quickly gain another 3 seconds. As for the 5k, maybe she can run 15:15 but this no going to cut any mustard with half a dozen women capable to run sub 14:30 (and another dozen or more between 14:30 and 15:00. 6 women went unter 8:30 in the 3k last night and there are at least 6 more who can run such times who weren't there, like Gidey, Muir, Houlihan or Klosterhalfen.

You need ca. 15:00 ability to be somewhat certain to make an olympic or WC 5k final.

I don't know what Semenya would be able to within another two years or so. But she would need to get to ca. 14:50 to be any medal threat in the 5k and would still get dropped in a 14:25-35 race.

Ovett's cousin wrote:

Yes he would've wrote:

Ovett broke the 2 mile world record. 3:48 miler with tremendous strength, I think if he wanted to focus on the 5000 he could've won medals at the olympic 5000m and probably gone sub 13.

Oh sure! Ovett preferred to race 1:52.xx 800m final at 1984 Olympics. Ovett preferred to drop out of 1500m final, 1984 Olympics. Ovett was a secret sub-13 5000m runner. Go back to your beer drinking.

STFU, Ovett suffered documented health problems in 84 when he was already past his best. If he'd devoted himself to the 5000m in the 70's it's very plausible to believe he would have smoked Yifter and been the first sub 13:00 guy. He looked in close to sub 13:00 shape even in 86 after 1 year of 5000m training when he was past 30 and way past his prime. In 87 he beat both De Castro brothers (one of whom took silver, Hutchins again (who was consistent world top 5 guy), and the guy who took bronze Jack Hutchins was destroyed by him the year before in the Commonwealths. Unfortunately he suffered problems again before the world championships in Rome, moved back down to the 1500 the next year and was never the same.

Hutchins and Bucker were clearly top 5 guys when Ovett destroyed them with ridiculous ease at the Commonwealth Games. There's no doubt at that point, only Aouita was better over 5000m, and Ovett would have given him a good race in that form.

John Treacy finished 7th in the Moscow final, just 2 seconds behind Yifter, not in the best shape after collapsing in the 10000m . Ovett was cruising to victory against him the week after Moscow, but famously relaxed and celebrated too early and got pipped on the line. Ovett was suffering from a flu during that race.

Fun fact. Mo Farah 5000m pb age 23 = 13:30 Steve Ovett 5000m pb age 21 = 13:25 (whilst still moving up from the 400/800 to the 800/1500)

*Jack Buckner *Tim Hutchings - Just woken up, lol.