I bett it's even a lot higher than 43.6%. If Russian mid-d star Ekaterina Poistogova (1:57.53 PB/Silver @ London) can microdose EPO and take oxandrolone pills during the summer lead-up to London, and have a normal appearing passport - then why wouldn't so many others follow this same strategy? I don't think the Russians are the only ones using this strategy. Even superstar 1500m specialist Tomashova flew under the ABP radar for her entire career only serving a doping ban for tampering with her samples. The ABP thresholds are way to generous -- it's free ride for micro-doping.
casual obsever wrote:
The estimated prevalence of past-year doping was 43.6% (95% confidence interval 39.4–47.9) at WCA and 57.1% (52.4–61.8) at PAG. The estimated prevalence of past-year supplement use at PAG was 70.1% (65.6–74.7%). Sensitivity analyses, assessing the robustness of these estimates under numerous hypothetical scenarios of intentional or unintentional noncompliance by respondents, suggested that we were unlikely to have overestimated the true prevalence of doping.
So, 43.6% estimated prevalence* during the IAAF World Championship 2011, unlikely to be overestimated based on sensitivity analyses under numerous hypothetical scenarios (see discussion in the article for details).
Rek pretends the real result is either 29 or 30%, depending on his mood, based on his one preferred hypothetical scenario found in the main text and the appendix, ignoring the others found in the main text and the appendix.
*Note this includes only the previous 12 months, not those who doped earlier and stopped.