My guess 6-8 on the modest side; 16-18 on the hopeful side.
My guess 6-8 on the modest side; 16-18 on the hopeful side.
There are at least 3 dozen Americans walking around right now who had the capability of running sub 10 but had absolutely no interest in running and never picked up the sport
If all of our top 10k runners ran marathon, and all of our top marathon runners ran fast courses, then we'd have about ten. We currently have 3* (I'm including Rupp)... If shadrack kipchirchir, Leonard Korir, Hassan?, Chelimo, ran a marathon on a flat course they'd all do it, and then a couple others that run 2:12 could probably get it done on the right day on the right course. Maybe even Biya Simbassa, Haron Lagat, Bor brothers could all do it too if they trained for it instad of the 5k-10k distances. Only 21 non-africans did it in 2018, and a few of those were actually born there but representing countries not in Africa.
They are playing other sports. Theres thousands of them. But marathons her are for people that suck at ball sports. Thats why i am here.
In Recovery wrote:
My guess 6-8 on the modest side; 16-18 on the hopeful side.
Likely so, if there existed a structure to support and inspire the majority of NCAA xc & 5k/10k all-American seniors each year to progress to the marathon within a few years of graduation. The back end of the 5k & 10k at each USATF Outdoor Nationals is littered with guys who should be able to make a better living (mid 5-figures) on the roads. Between meager, cutthroat shoe/apparel contracts and hungry foreigners, it looks like ghetto life to most anyone with a decent college education.
hardset nipples wrote:
In Recovery wrote:
My guess 6-8 on the modest side; 16-18 on the hopeful side.
Likely so, if there existed a structure to support and inspire the majority of NCAA xc & 5k/10k all-American seniors each year to progress to the marathon within a few years of graduation. The back end of the 5k & 10k at each USATF Outdoor Nationals is littered with guys who should be able to make a better living (mid 5-figures) on the roads. Between meager, cutthroat shoe/apparel contracts and hungry foreigners, it looks like ghetto life to most anyone with a decent college education.
All you have to do is look at Japan - if the US had the same corporate support structure and cultural support we would see similar results. As said above - if each year all those sub 30 10K guys saw 1/2 and full running as a viable career path depth would take off. But here , there is very little money and - significantly! - if you do choose slum it all you get is crap about how you are a no talent 2:13 guy (which is eventually where your 2:10 guys come from). Little financial support + little cultural support = little depth
Law of numbers wrote:
There are at least 3 dozen Americans walking around right now who had the capability of running sub 10 but had absolutely no interest in running and never picked up the sport
I disagree with your off the cuff ‘3 dozen ‘; we’d not know this because they’re not participating. Prerequisite skill set ~13:30/28:00/1:02:00 and a willfully perverse work ethic might produce 10-20 sub-2:10 each year. Something lacks in the coaching of the event in this country.
28:00? Are you serious?
5609 wrote:
28:00? Are you serious?
Ok maybe 28:15, close enough?
What is the total number regardless of aided course profile or windy, of sub 2:10 by the USA, what maybe 45? Meb must have 9 or 10 himself, honestly he might be the best marathoner we’ve seen when adding in his silver. If we pushed out 10 each year that would be a great start.
Dusty Street wrote:
5609 wrote:
28:00? Are you serious?
Ok maybe 28:15, close enough?
Derek Clayton 10k PB was only 28:45. Plenty of Japanese runners who have ran similar marathon times to Derek and similar 10k PBs. 5k and 10k PB to go sub 2:10: 13:55/28:45
Dusty Street wrote:
Law of numbers wrote:
There are at least 3 dozen Americans walking around right now who had the capability of running sub 10 but had absolutely no interest in running and never picked up the sport
I disagree with your off the cuff ‘3 dozen ‘; we’d not know this because they’re not participating. Prerequisite skill set ~13:30/28:00/1:02:00 and a willfully perverse work ethic might produce 10-20 sub-2:10 each year. Something lacks in the coaching of the event in this country.
That`s right ! If Salazar and JS were the only coaches to handle the Americans marathon coaching there should be even some 2:03-2:04 runners.
28:45 me thinks is too slow, except for those blessed with extreme fatigue resistance
Realistically?
The U.S. has produced 20 sub-2:10 marathoners over the last 40 years. Assuming that the population genetics and immigration framework, shoe technology and racing setup, and methods for identifying and supporting elite-ish marathoners stay about the same, we can expect to roll out 1 sub-2:10 marathoner every 2 years. Expecting more than that without making basic changes to the American system is unrealistic.
B.Sell didnt wrote:
28:45 me thinks is too slow, except for those blessed with extreme fatigue resistance
2:06 marathon with a 28:19 10000m PB and 13:54 5000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/japan/atsushi-fujita-1362712:06 marathon with a 28:26 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/japan/takayuki-inubushi-1728132:07 marathon with a 28:18 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/japan/masato-imai-1842842:07 marathon with a 28:41 10000m PB
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/japan/arata-fujiwara-2238122:08 marathon with a 29:02 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/japan/yuki-kawauchi-234792https://www.iaaf.org/records/all-time-toplists/road-running/marathon/outdoor/men/senior?regionType=countries®ion=jpn&drop=regular&fiftyPercentRule=regular&page=1&bestResultsOnly=true&firstDay=1899-12-31&lastDay=2019-04-23Ron Hill 2:09 marathon and a 28:38 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/great-britain-ni/ron-hill-9784
Hugh Jones 2:09 marathon and a 28:48 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/great-britain-ni/hugh-jones-9783
KOEN NAERT 2:07 marathon and a 28:32 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/belgium/koen-naert-272651
National record holder in the marathon for Korea, only has a 29:44 10000m PB.
Marathon is about strength wrote:
Ron Hill 2:09 marathon and a 28:38 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/great-britain-ni/ron-hill-9784Hugh Jones 2:09 marathon and a 28:48 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/great-britain-ni/hugh-jones-9783KOEN NAERT 2:07 marathon and a 28:32 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/belgium/koen-naert-272651National record holder in the marathon for Korea, only has a 29:44 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/korea/bong-ju-lee-20019
So the issue is lack of miles ..? What is the answer..?
In Recovery wrote:
Marathon is about strength wrote:
Ron Hill 2:09 marathon and a 28:38 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/great-britain-ni/ron-hill-9784Hugh Jones 2:09 marathon and a 28:48 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/great-britain-ni/hugh-jones-9783KOEN NAERT 2:07 marathon and a 28:32 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/belgium/koen-naert-272651National record holder in the marathon for Korea, only has a 29:44 10000m PB.
https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/korea/bong-ju-lee-20019So the issue is lack of miles ..? What is the answer..?
I have a fever and the only cure is more cowbell(mileage).
I’m guessing 8-12x produced by 6-10 athletes