Hey folks,
25 year old male, just finished Boston in 2:47:2X. I'm still relatively new to the sport and would like to get some opinions on how quick I could get in the marathon. Short history:
I started running in January 2017 with no running background at all but was an athlete in high school. Had ballooned up to close to 240 lbs at 6'0" and just wanted to lose weight so I trained for a half marathon. Currently I'm at just over 170 lbs.
Major race history is: 2017 NYC Marathon in 3:21, then the 2018 NYC Half in 1:19 (biggest jump), got hurt, recovered a bit for 2018 Grandma's in 2:56, got hurt again, then 2019 NYC Half in 1:18 low, then Boston in 2:47. So far in 2019 I've run 677 miles which averages to around 45 mpw and the last four months have been easily the most consistent and healthy training I've had. I'm still leaning out (lost 10lbs this training cycle and have room to go there).
Would it be reasonable to shoot for sub 2:35 by, say, CIM 2020? That would give me a year and a half to shave about 30 seconds/mile off my current marathon pace, but I feel my trajectory could back that up and I still have a lot of room to improve my body. Also all my races have been on (relatively) difficult courses besides Grandma's, so I might pick up a couple minutes over Boston there on the course and weather alone. What say you?