Sorry LetsRunners, I know this is a tiresome post and I have been trying to resist but I need some advice.
Running my first marathon in a week and a half, and need some advice on pacing.
Recent Stats:
65 MPW avg for several months. I am training at 5300 ft elevation. Marathon will be at 1000 ft elevation.
Key Recent Workouts:
18 mile LR at 6:24/mi with over 1000 ft elevation change.
Recent 22 miler with 14 miles at 6:10/mi pace.
Went to sea level and did a 20 mile LR with 10 miles at 5:54 pace. This felt easy.
10k time trial on my own in 36:45. Hate to make excuses for this but I was sick and totally energy drained. No doubt I could do this faster, especially healthy, in a race situation, and without wind.
Based off the 10k time equivalent it says I should shoot for 2:49 on Jack Daniel's VDOT. I think I am in better shape than this and could hit 2:45 maybe faster on a good day. That being said the weather for my race could be horrible with wind and/or humidity.
This is my first focused road racing effort as in the past I was a 30-40 MPW jogger without any structured workouts, never really running much faster than 7 minute mile pace. I have run in the past 4years a 17:06 5k, 27:48 8k, 60:00.40 10 miler in race situations again without focused workouts. In the past 2 years I have done exclusively trail/ultra without much speed work.
Any input is appreciated!!