Chances of Mo Farah beating Kipchoge in London?

The Snowman wrote:

round and round wrote:

Interesting logic.

I can't wait to come back to this tread after the race, @Tarckstar

regardless of the outcome, it'll be cool to reread everything based on what happens. I hope the weather in London creates perfect race conditions....

I hope it snows. Mo will win easily. It can snow that late in the UK (we had some the other day in fact).

Uh-huh. Betting that Farah is mentally tougher than Kipchoge is a sure money loss.

Why would head-to-head record be the only metric used? Mottram is 14-10 against Farah, would you say that means Mottram was a better runner?

I honestly don't know what their head to head is as it isn't relevant to whether or not it is idiotic to use a 2012 indoor 2 mile as "evidence" that Farah wouldn't be able to beat Kipchoge at the end of a marathon if they are still together, and it is only one of many pieces that would be considered in who has had the better career. Farah was training towards winning the Olympics that Kipchoge couldn't even make it to.

British Farah is going to demolish the African imposter. Kipchoge will DNF. You saw it here first. Farah will win the London marathon. The decision has already been made.

God BLESS MOMAHHMED.

God is great.

All hail Mohammed wrote:

British Farah is going to demolish the African imposter. Kipchoge will DNF. You saw it here first. Farah will win the London marathon. The decision has already been made.

Allah yubarik fik MOMAHHMED.

Allāhu akbar.

Fixed it.

andthen wrote:

Why would head-to-head record be the only metric used? Mottram is 14-10 against Farah, would you say that means Mottram was a better runner?

I honestly don't know what their head to head is as it isn't relevant to whether or not it is idiotic to use a 2012 indoor 2 mile as "evidence" that Farah wouldn't be able to beat Kipchoge at the end of a marathon if they are still together, and it is only one of many pieces that would be considered in who has had the better career. Farah was training towards winning the Olympics that Kipchoge couldn't even make it to.

What a ridiculous comment. Mottram racked that many wins on Farah because he WAS a better runner. He was 12-0 on Mo at one point. Mo Farah was nothing until he got with Salazar and Aden. He wasn't even in the same league. In fact Mo was training partners with Mottram for parts of the year prior to that and he was getting dominated by Mottram in almost every race. The records DO count. And his rise to the top was objectively very suspicious. Mottram also had a swift decline as well. That's beside the point, to be super fit to ensure that you make the Kenyan team and then run well at the Olympics is way harder than having to make the GB team. I can't even name another person that was on that team. It's a joke. Farah doesn't even have to be anywhere near great shape or to even taper to make the team, it's a huge advantage. He could show up with a strained calf and still make it.

andthen wrote:

Why would head-to-head record be the only metric used? Mottram is 14-10 against Farah, would you say that means Mottram was a better runner?

I honestly don't know what their head to head is as it isn't relevant to whether or not it is idiotic to use a 2012 indoor 2 mile as "evidence" that Farah wouldn't be able to beat Kipchoge at the end of a marathon if they are still together, and it is only one of many pieces that would be considered in who has had the better career. Farah was training towards winning the Olympics that Kipchoge couldn't even make it to.

If you can't figure out why head to head wouldn't be the optimal metric, then you honestly can't be helped. There's really no reason to discuss it further, in my opinion. Though, I would be interested in their head to head numbers. As an aside, Mottram crushed Farah as training fodder each day in practice. Did you know they were training partners? Of course, this was all before magic Mo's miraculous rise in performance after moving to Portland, then becoming involved in extended training camps with Jama Aden. Mo didn't even make the final in Beijing. I suppose we'll agree to disagree on this one. However, I'd submit that any association with dopers, known doping coaches, or shady behavior (missing tests, etc) should disqualify an athlete in any rational mind as being the greatest ever.

Didn't even read far enough down to see this post. This guy/gal is spot on. Almost exactly what I just posted.

Yeah it's absolutely backwards that someone could think that a talented guy like Mo is going to be on a program that works for some of the best runners and Mo still wasn't able to be world class. It worked for Mottram, it worked for Sonia O'Sullivan, it worked for Benita Willis, but not Mo. That guy Salazar and Aden over there, now they're doing something different that will take me to the next level. I wonder what that something could be...

This is where I read to last time

Mottram was better than Mo in Craig’s prime, before Mo’s prime, which was my point. Primes don’t always overlap, causing head-to-head records that wouldn’t point to who had the better career. You can’t actually believe Mottram had the better career. I don’t believe anyone could be that ignorant.

If you’re too much of a simpleton to see the imperfections of using ONLY head to head records as the measuring stick when runners’ prime of their careers and main event/s didn’t overlap, then you can’t be helped. I never said Mo is the greatest ever (he’s not), so I’m not sure where that comment from you is coming from.

It’s laughable that you guys think Mo would’ve had troubles making any Kenyan team when he beat them when it count every time for 7 years. Kipchoge was SEVENTH in the race that mattered most to him in 2012. But hey he won an indoor two mile so it’s worth it, right?

Disingenuous wrote:

If you can't figure out why head to head wouldn't be the optimal metric, then you honestly can't be helped.

Also, you aren’t even able to use the English language correctly. Re-read what you wrote here, maybe a couple more times, and you’ll see that you are arguing my point. I can figure out why head to head wouldn’t be the optimal metric. You are the one who can’t. Way to go.

Dude you're being the ignorant one in believing that someone can be training at a high level their entire life and then hit their prime at 28. This isn't basketball it's running. It has never happened in any other case before. There isn't a single time a world champion has done this. I honestly can't believe you just called someone ignorant when talking about Mo freaking Farah's career when you haven't even touched on doping yourself in any post here.

I haven’t touched on doping because I’ve been posting about factual accomplishments, not speculative opinions.

andthen wrote:

Disingenuous wrote:

If you can't figure out why head to head wouldn't be the optimal metric, then you honestly can't be helped.

Also, you aren’t even able to use the English language correctly. Re-read what you wrote here, maybe a couple more times, and you’ll see that you are arguing my point. I can figure out why head to head wouldn’t be the optimal metric. You are the one who can’t. Way to go.

Like I said, agree to disagree. A head to head seems to be the gold standard in the majority of people's minds- comparing who beat who, etc, etc is hardly a reliable measure. The only other objective yardstick would be times run. I'm certainly not arguing your point- not by any stretch. And incidentally, English is my 5th language- Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, Icelandic, English- call me names all that you desire- makes not a difference to me.

The only other objective yardstick would be times run, eh? Medals/championships aren’t objective in your world?

You guys are nuts. Please don't suggest somehow that Mottram had a better career or was "cleaner" than Farah.

You complain about doping, you complain that Farah never ran "super fast", just sit and kick races, yet surely you don't believe a 10000WC race where the second half was run in 12:57 was clean, right? Or a 1500WC won in 3:27. On and on.

If winning is what counts, then Farah is the best TRACK distance runner there is. MAYBE Geb could have done similar had he not had 10000 heats to run.

When it comes to times, his PR in 5000 was at the very beginning of his dominance. He schooled those guys that ran 12:40s multiple times. He did run 801 2 mile (or maybe it was 803?), still a world best. In the span of a year he ran 3:28 and ~59:20 half marathon, and in his first serious marathon he went out in 61:00 and still ran a 206.

If anyone is suspicious, I'd argue its a guy that only races twice a year and runs sub 204 or better every time. Year after year after year. It's so unbelievable I can't believe EK has the reputation he does here. I guess because he's humble.

dbsquirtNXC21 wrote:

I don't know why people are so reluctant to think of Mo as the next great marathoner. Like kipchoge, he had great success on the track (dare I say way better) and is making the proper transition to the than. He's gonna be a great.

no

Put it to the test wrote:

Phantasy Star wrote:

40-year-old Kipchoge will be loaded with dope and will be wearing cheater spring shoes. He can't be beat.

Kipchoge 2:04:15

Farah 2:05:30

Farah is 2 years older. Farah will be wearing he exact same model of shoes- prototype or not. EK is not associated with Jama Aden, missed drug tests with suspicious excuses, nor was he ever labeled by the blood passport as "likely doping".

Is that real age 2 years older? Seems hard to believe. Eliud must have had a very heavy paper round back in his youth...