Chances of Mo Farah beating Kipchoge in London?

John Treacy finished second in the marathon at the 84 Olympics. He'd never run one before.

I mention this because in the years leading up to the LA Games, nobody was going to beat Seko, Salazar, and DeCastella. Lopes became evident very late in the game, but Treacy and Spedding? Seriously? I mention this because, this is why they race. You have another warm London, you have the rabbits not quite up to the task, and you have a Kipchoge not at 100% and/or with insoles flopping out of his shoes, you never know. We're talking Farah. Adola had Kipchoge wincing a bit at Berlin 2017, you know.

AP5000 wrote:

You all do realize Kipchoge has only lost once in a marathon, where he finished 2nd. Mo Farrah has never broken 2:05 and even that's as a cheater. Kipchoge is the world record holder and has run 2:05:00 or faster NINE TIMES!. The only time he's been slower than 2:05:00 is when he went 2:05 and change in his first marathon and when he won the gold medal in the Olympics in 2016. You have to be on crack and meth at thensame time to think Farrah has a reasonable shot and winning unless Kipchoge is somehow hurt, which he never is. I mean seriously, you have to be a retard to think that.

Agreed. As if Meb would have a chance against this field:

Dennis Kimetto – 2:03:45 (Chicago 2013) Kenya

Lelisa Desisa – 2:04:45 (Dubai, 2013) Ethiopia

Gebregziabher Gebremariam – 2:04:53 (Boston, 2011) Ethiopia

Markos Geneti – 2:04:54 (Dubai, 2012) Ethiopia

Ryan Hall - 2:04:58 (Boston, 2011) USA

Wilson Chebet – 2:05:27 (Rotterdam, 2011) Kenya

Tilahun Regassa – 2:05:27 (Chicago, 2012) Ethiopia

Shami Dawud – 2:05:42 (Dubai, 2012) Ethiopia

Eric Ndiema – 2:06:07 (Amsterdam, 2011) Kenya

Frankline Chepkwony – 2:06:11 (Eindhoven, 2012) Kenya

Micah Kogo – 2:06:56 (Chicago, 2013) Kenya

Adil Annani – 2:07:43 (London, 2012) Morocco

Paul Lonyangata – 2:07:44 (Xiamen, 2013) Kenya

Joel Kimurer – 2:07:48 (Gongju, 2013) Kenya

Lusapho April – 2:08:32 (Hannover, 2013) South Africa

Mebrahtom Keflezighi – 2:09:08 (Houston, 2012) USA

When you get down to the "hey, you never know" scenarios you are down in the less than 5% chance range. Yes, technically there is a chance anyone could beat Kipchoge, however only one person in the world ever has. But yeah, sure, put your money on the 2:05 guy to beat the 2:01 guy. Say that out loud and hear how dumb that sounds.

I'm certainly not putting money on Farah over Kipchoge if they had even odds. I don't even know if anyone on this thread has said as much.

It's more in response to the idiocy of the OP. He actually wrote if Mo "dusts" Kipchoge... I mean it takes a special kind of idiot to type that out. To even comprehend that it would somehow be possible for anyone on earth to "dust" Kipchoge is beyond me. And if someone could do it, it most certainly would not be a 2:05 guy.

Fair enough.

No has no chance of beating Kipchoge (assuming they are both healthy) and he knows it. That's why he keeps talking about going back to the track. He knows at best he'll only be second fiddle on the roads and he still wants to win. Ironically this side show of Mo going back to the track makes his chance of beating Kipchoge even smaller, since only someone completely dedicated to marathon training would ever have a chance to beat Kipchoge to begin with...

AP5000 wrote:

When you get down to the "hey, you never know" scenarios you are down in the less than 5% chance range. Yes, technically there is a chance anyone could beat Kipchoge, however only one person in the world ever has. But yeah, sure, put your money on the 2:05 guy to beat the 2:01 guy. Say that out loud and hear how dumb that sounds.

Hey, you never know...it could be pouring down rain, 35 degrees with 30 mph headwind like Boston 2018....Then maybe, just maybe, Mo wins.

Mo is not the GOAT, but he’s the winningest distance runner. Look at his Wikipedia. Lotta gold medals.....

Who cares who is the GOAT. Everyone will never agree on that title

Also, to the poster who said Salazar was a drug cheat- please provide link that illustrates his guilt.

Byeeeeee

The funny thing about this is, a race with Kipchoge and Farah is actually only 25 miles. Because if Farah is still there at 25 miles, it's no longer a race involving Kipchoge.

AP5000 wrote:

It's more in response to the idiocy of the OP. He actually wrote if Mo "dusts" Kipchoge... I mean it takes a special kind of idiot to type that out. To even comprehend that it would somehow be possible for anyone on earth to "dust" Kipchoge is beyond me. And if someone could do it, it most certainly would not be a 2:05 guy.

Farah can run under 2:04.

That’s not hard to see. He hasn’t, but he can.

FFF wrote:

The funny thing about this is, a race with Kipchoge and Farah is actually only 25 miles. Because if Farah is still there at 25 miles, it's no longer a race involving Kipchoge.

that's terrible logic.

have you ever run a marathon and felt mile 25?!

i have a much faster mile and 3000m PB than my friend, but he is a better marathoner and would "dust me" if i ever managed to get equal with him at mile 25.

you know farah is only faster in a few distances (1500m, 2-mile, 10,000m) over a career, right?

oh cmon please wrote:

One should absolutely in now way ever be mentioned as GOAT if you don't have a single WORLD RECORD!!

Thats craziness! Mo doesn't even have the Euro 10k and half marathon record!! Barely has the Euro record which he may lose this year.

Farah has the WR in the indoor 2-mile, if we're getting technical.....

OneMoMofo wrote:

I've heard through the grape vine about some ridiculous workouts that Mo has been dropping in Ethopia. Like crazy workouts indicating 2:03 shape...

Will not be surprised if Mo can beat Eluid. But Eluid has run 2:01...so hey, probably not.

30% chance he does it. Which is quite high when you think about it.

Like what? Can you give an example?

"Farah can run under 2:04.

That’s not hard to see. He hasn’t, but he can."

Yeah, well Kipchoge actually HAS run 2:04 or better EIGHT times. But I'm sure you feel good about your point.

You can be a great track runner while running slow times like Mo because the important races aren’t the same as the fast races. People love to talk about Mo’s undefeated streak on the track, but he never tested himself in a fast race. You don’t need to be in WR 5k shape to dominate the Olympics, you need to be a 12:50 guy with a savage kick.

Mo beat 12:45 guys, but never in a 12:45 race.

The problem is that marathon majors are a different beast. The fast races are the same as the important races. You can’t win Berlin or London with a sit and kick; Mo needs to be in (almost) WR shape to come out on top. You actually need to run 2:03 to beat the 2:03 guys.

So far there’s no reason to think he can run 2:03. I wouldn’t be shocked if he does, but I definitely wouldn’t bet on him over the guys who actually have.

And picking him over the 2:01 guy is madness.

Lofty Goals, thank God you are here to talk some sense into the guys. I swear there's 5 posts swearing Mo is "in 2:03 shape."

These are the same guys who claim all the US guys running under 2:10, when there is exactly one who "is," and might possibly never do again.

Exactly. You ask them for a name and you get one of two responses: a): a 2:12 guy who COULD run 2:10 next time, or b): someone who did it seven years ago (Ritz) and hasn't since. What you never get, however, is a guy who has actually done it, because none of them have.