Nice work, 2muchtime. Curl is magic. Even if you can't get precise times, the relative sequence of runners can be useful.
So here's a last look at whatever can be learned from the 2016 Oakland marathon. It's a frustrating case in some ways because there aren't many timing mats, all the photo locations are at the end of the race, and even the 12.75mi mat seems to give flaky results.
But it is possible to precisely identify three locations on the course: The 19.7 mile mat/Crucible "Arch of Fire" at the corner of Union/7th St.:
https://iconic-imagecdn.azureedge.net/MFT2016-01/22/793022/1001/0026.jpg?preset=p
The Lake Merritt Bandstand (around 23.76 miles):
https://iconic-imagecdn.azureedge.net/MFT2016-01/07/793007/1002/0028.jpg?preset=p
And the shore of Lake Merritt, just before the Pergola, around mile 24.57:
https://iconic-imagecdn.azureedge.net/MFT2016-02/79/792979/1001/0048.jpg?preset=p
https://iconic-imagecdn.azureedge.net/MFT2016-02/79/792979/1001/0049.jpg?preset=p
FM was no mid-packer in this race! Although he gave most competitors a nearly 2 minute head start, he had moved up to 8th place by the 10K mat. He was still in 8th place at 19.7 miles. At that point, he was 1:10 ahead of ninth place, #201, and 3:43 ahead of tenth place, #135. Both those runners would finish over 2 minutes ahead of FM.
#201, the overall women's winner and 42 years old, ran her final 6.5 miles at 6:53/mile. She appears in pictures with FM at the bandstand, which means she gapped him by 2:36 in the last 2.44 miles. If we assume metronome-like pacing, that suggests a pace of 7:57/mile for FM from the bandstand to the finish line. FM and #135 don't appear in pictures together, but to judge by the sequence, FM is still leading #135 at the Pergola. If we assume the separation at that point is minimal, it means that #135 gapped FM by 2:18 in the last 1.63 miles. Compared to #135's average pace of 6:34 over the final 6.5 miles, that again points to an average pace of around 7:58/mile for FM over the last few miles on the course.
Now the Oakland 2016 course also presents a bit of a problem for any would-be course cutter. There are multiple photo locations in the last 3 miles, and there's a big lake between you and the finish line. You'd better be prepared to run that last 5K under your own power.
FM had a lead of just over a minute on #201 at mile 19.7. Maybe he slowed to 7:10/mile and gradually lost ground to #201 so that she caught him at the bandstand. Or...maybe he started running, at 8:00/mile, about a mile from the bandstand. That would put FM back on the course at an interesting location, about 400 meters and around the corner (on Telegraph Ave.) from the First Presbyterian Church at the corner of 27th and Broadway. No photos were taken at the church in 2016. But it was a photo location in 2015:
https://iconic-imagecdn.azureedge.net/MFT2015-01/12/773412/1001/0035.jpg?preset=p
The evidence is not definitive and open to multiple interpretations.
One option: FM started 1:47 after the gun, valiantly fought his way through 676 walkers and joggers, got too ambitious and crossed the 10K mat in 39:47 (AG: 89.4%), slowed a bit after 20 miles, but still hung on for a sub-3 hour marathon (AG: 91.7%).
Another option: FM started running a quarter mile before the first expected photo location on the course.
I don't think people are giving FM enough credit for physical fitness. He looks like a pretty fit guy to me for his late 60s/early 70s. None of us look our best in every picture. If he ran 3.5 miles at around 8:00/mile in 2016, that would age-grade right around 70%. Not bad! The marathon equivalent would be a very credible 4:10. Which would have given FM top 3 in his age group, with a shot at top 2. He's got a good shot at breaking 26 in a 5K even now.