I'm calling it now, on 3-18-2019: Zion Williamson will be a BUST in the NBA

if you mean Larry johnnson before back issues, then you may not be far off,

He'll be midway between Blake Griffin and Charles Barkley.

the knicks will probably suck, but it won't be his fault.

The Jeff wrote:

He'll get picked by the Knicks where he will be stuck for years with poor management, coaching, rosters and will wistfully watch as teams in the same division, Philly and Boston, routinely make deep playoff runs. He's being projected to be a Charles Barkley type but will wind up more like Larry Johnson or Oliver Miller.

You're going to have to be more specific with how you define "bust." Some would say that with all the hype, if he's never the best player in the NBA and isn't a surefire HOFer, that's a bust. However, those who are more reasonable will still compare him to historical #1 draft pick status. You could make the argument that 5-8 all star games, some all-NBA appearances, and a few deep runs would mean he would not be a bust.

Blake Griffin or Larry Johnson is appropriate. Or here you go, to pull another Dukie: Elton Brand. He'll be at the ASG as a rookie, certainly, but won't make more than 4 more ASG's. We'll never see him in the Finals, unless he somehow winds up on the Lakers, Warriors, Spurs, or Celtics. He'll play for the Knicks until he gets to the option year and then he and his agent will push their way out to be traded to a team like the Magic, the Bulls, the Nets, or the Jazz.

any basis for your opinion?

Elton Brand had a fine career, worthy of a #1 pick and Zion's ceiling is certainly higher.

Zion is going to average 20-10 with good defense.....that's not a bust. A few months ago people didn't even think he was the best prospect on his own team.

1) Please define "Bust" in a way that will be specific and measurable later so we know if you're right.

2) I'll give you credit for laying some of your prediction on the failings of the Knicks organization and not just on a young man who is hyped relentlessly by other people.

3) I still nudge my friend who made virtually the same prediction years ago about some dude named LeBron James. And no, I'm not predicting Zion will be even nearly as successfully. I'm just saying that the occasional player does live up to the hype.

The Jeff wrote:

Blake Griffin or Larry Johnson is appropriate. Or here you go, to pull another Dukie: Elton Brand. He'll be at the ASG as a rookie, certainly, but won't make more than 4 more ASG's. We'll never see him in the Finals, unless he somehow winds up on the Lakers, Warriors, Spurs, or Celtics. He'll play for the Knicks until he gets to the option year and then he and his agent will push their way out to be traded to a team like the Magic, the Bulls, the Nets, or the Jazz.

Pretty funny, I can remember when the Warriors were AWFUL.

He's no LeBron, KD, or Kobe, like everyone seems to be saying. Won't be a generational player at the next level. He looks great charging through other 18 year olds who can't remember defensive set assignments.

From what I have seen of him, he is far, far better than Barkley.

Going out on a limb to say he will not be a bust by any normal definition (barring serious injury).

Luv2Run wrote:

The Jeff wrote:

Blake Griffin or Larry Johnson is appropriate. Or here you go, to pull another Dukie: Elton Brand. He'll be at the ASG as a rookie, certainly, but won't make more than 4 more ASG's. We'll never see him in the Finals, unless he somehow winds up on the Lakers, Warriors, Spurs, or Celtics. He'll play for the Knicks until he gets to the option year and then he and his agent will push their way out to be traded to a team like the Magic, the Bulls, the Nets, or the Jazz.

Pretty funny, I can remember when the Warriors were AWFUL.

That's great, me too! The Warriors minus KD and with Williamson, Curry, Thompson, and Green are still better than the Lakers with LeBron RN.

based on what? wrote:

any basis for your opinion?

Elton Brand had a fine career, worthy of a #1 pick and Zion's ceiling is certainly higher.

Zion is going to average 20-10 with good defense.....that's not a bust. A few months ago people didn't even think he was the best prospect on his own team.

This. I remember vividly hearing multiple talking heads and draft projectors saying RJ Barrett was the better pro prospect at the beginning of the season. I haven't heard that since the beginning of the season.

And saying he won't be a LeBron, Durant, or Kobe? So you don't think he'll be a top 15-20 ALL TIME NBA player? Wow, way to go out on a limb there. By that definition, every player taken in the draft for the last 10 years has been a bust.

I love how people claim he will be a bust and then cite Blake Griffin and Elton Brand, two borderline hall of famers.

Brand probably won't get in because of his Achilles tear, but according to Basketball Reference similarity scores, here are the 4 most similar careers to Brand's:

Elgin Baylor

Kevin McHale

Shawn Marion

Scottie Pippen

I haven't seen a #1 picked hyped like this since the LeBron, Carmello, Dwanye draft. That's the application of the term "bust."

Will not fulfill the expectations heaped on by the hype.

How about Melo, fair to call him a bust?

The Jeff wrote:

I haven't seen a #1 picked hyped like this since the LeBron, Carmello, Dwanye draft. That's the application of the term "bust."

Will not fulfill the expectations heaped on by the hype.

How about Melo, fair to call him a bust?

Trust me, I have great disdain for the way Melo plays and he's one of my least favorite players. But anyone who calls him a bust is a basketball idiot.

Luv2Run wrote:

From what I have seen of him, he is far, far better than Barkley.

Going out on a limb to say he will not be a bust by any normal definition (barring serious injury).

You are greatly underrating Barkley here. It would be tough to say ANY player ever was far, far better than Barkley besides Jordan, LeBron, Wilt and Kareem. Barkley is an all-time great, just below the top tier.

He does pass the eye test of being able to do everything Barkley could do, with a little added athleticism and better defense, so that bodes well though. As a prospect he certainly comes across as better than Barkley, but pro Barkley exceeded all expectations. Some guys just know how to get it done. Zion seems to have it, but let's hold off on calling him far, far better than a top 25 all-timer just yet.

Rob Wriggle Wroom wrote:

The Jeff wrote:

I haven't seen a #1 picked hyped like this since the LeBron, Carmello, Dwanye draft. That's the application of the term "bust."

Will not fulfill the expectations heaped on by the hype.

How about Melo, fair to call him a bust?

Trust me, I have great disdain for the way Melo plays and he's one of my least favorite players. But anyone who calls him a bust is a basketball idiot.

Exactly this ^

Only casual fans are throwing out ridiculous comps like "LeBron" for Zion. 12-year-olds on Reddit or 42-year-old YMCA heroes are not who sets the bar for 'bust', thankfully.

6 months ago a lot of these people were saying Zion would be a bust at Duke. Real fans tune that noise out, don't even consider it.

Rob Wriggle Wroom wrote:

The Jeff wrote:

I haven't seen a #1 picked hyped like this since the LeBron, Carmello, Dwanye draft. That's the application of the term "bust."

Will not fulfill the expectations heaped on by the hype.

How about Melo, fair to call him a bust?

Trust me, I have great disdain for the way Melo plays and he's one of my least favorite players. But anyone who calls him a bust is a basketball idiot.

So he's arguably fulfilled the expectations of a lottery pick who led his team to win the NCAA tournament? Can't build a championship team around him anywhere he's been in the NBA. Granted, there's more complexity and less luck involved in building an NBA champ compared with an NCAA champion, yet he couldn't make it happen in any one spot while LeBron has in multiple. Melo has certainly had his moments of brilliance at this level, do you consider him a surefire HOFer? LeBron certainly is, ditto Wade.

yes, this wrote:

Only casual fans are throwing out ridiculous comps like "LeBron" for Zion. 12-year-olds on Reddit or 42-year-old YMCA heroes are not who sets the bar for 'bust', thankfully.

33 year olds posting on a running message board from Mom's basement do, then? Lol

LeBron is tossed in as a proven generational talent in the NBA. Many thought in his first few seasons that he wouldn't mature into that. Kobe is another. Even KD is one, maybe that's a fairer bar for a #1 pick with this much hype around him? Tim Duncan?

I'll defer to Sports Illustrated on this one:

- Sports Illustrated

ouch. I think SI just called you a moran.

The Jeff wrote:

yes, this wrote:

Only casual fans are throwing out ridiculous comps like "LeBron" for Zion. 12-year-olds on Reddit or 42-year-old YMCA heroes are not who sets the bar for 'bust', thankfully.

33 year olds posting on a running message board from Mom's basement do, then? Lol

LeBron is tossed in as a proven generational talent in the NBA. Many thought in his first few seasons that he wouldn't mature into that. Kobe is another. Even KD is one, maybe that's a fairer bar for a #1 pick with this much hype around him? Tim Duncan?

did you just ask if it would be fair not to call him a bust if he has a Kobe/Duncan/KD type career? 0_0

ok, you are definitely out of your element here...