2:45 with pacers or 2:48 solo?

Use the pace group. Don't wear a watch.

Another thing I’m worried about is pacers hitting too fast splits, I ran with pacers 3 years ago when I wanted to run sub 3, and they split 1:27:10 which was way too fast.

Seven seconds per mile can work to your advantage 6:17 vs 6:24 pace

If you run off the back of the 2:45 group at 6:24 and they run 6:17

Your 2:48 pace is slower than the 2:45 pace by 30 meters per mile.

So at the halfway point you wold be about 400 meters back.

*about 30 meters per mile

s 4:18 meters per second vs 4.26 meters per second

.08 meters per second

Though about that as well, just focusing on distancing myself from them a bit every mile, and then after halfway if I feel good try to keep the same pace as them

Depends how confident you are of breaking 2:50. If you are right on the limit of 2:50 then run your own race. If you fully expect to do it then go for the 2:45. Worst case (barring complete meltdown) is you struggle for the last 6 miles but still run 2:50ish

I feel quite confident that I can run 2:48, have done some good long runs including a 34k run with 4x5k averaging 3:52/km

Orren wrote:

Another thing I’m worried about is pacers hitting too fast splits, I ran with pacers 3 years ago when I wanted to run sub 3, and they split 1:27:10 which was way too fast.

This is important. If you are thinking about running with the 2:45 pace group, ask the pacer before the start of the race whether he plans on running even splits or on "banking time" early. Someone pacing 2:45 might take you out at 1:20 figuring everyone will slow a bunch in the final 10K. If your training says 2:48 you may be OK with a 1:22:30 half, but a 1:20 half will probably toast you. Of course the pacer may not do what he says anyway, but if he plans on going out faster to bank time, don't try to go with him.

What marathon has a 2:45 pacer but not a 2:50 pacer? It would make a lot more sense to go with the 2:50 pace group for the first half if there was one.

Trying to PR puts your pacing on a knife edge, and the difference between 6:29/mile (2:50) and 6:17/mile (2:45) over 26.2 miles seems pretty significant to me. I think the chances are a lot higher that you'll blow up badly at the faster pace than you'll hang on for a big PR. You'll have to decide if that risk is worth it.

Another option is to just use your GPS watch or mile splits to keep yourself on pace.

Will you actually be solo running a 2:48 or just without a pacer?

I know in pfitzs marathon book he recommends if faced between the decision of running with a group going over goal pace or being on your own, go with the group

Can’t remember how much the quicker the group should be going though before it’s better to stay on your own

For sure there will be some people running 2:48, not sure how many though or if there will be a group or just a few runners.

If the pacers split very evenly, I can see a big advantage, but I believe that dissipates quickly if they are uneven.

The difference in bonking at 20 and running strong to the end is 8 seconds/mile. Three minutes faster is 7 seconds per mile faster but if you sit behind the pack and let them break the wind, you will get back 3 or 4 seconds.

A suggestion would be to run with the pace group the first half to 15 miles. At that point, back off for a few miles until you feel you can push hard to the finish.

my 2c wrote:

What marathon has a 2:45 pacer but not a 2:50 pacer? It would make a lot more sense to go with the 2:50 pace group for the first half if there was one.

Trying to PR puts your pacing on a knife edge, and the difference between 6:29/mile (2:50) and 6:17/mile (2:45) over 26.2 miles seems pretty significant to me. I think the chances are a lot higher that you'll blow up badly at the faster pace than you'll hang on for a big PR. You'll have to decide if that risk is worth it.

Another option is to just use your GPS watch or mile splits to keep yourself on pace.

Women's OTQ tho...

I would not run with the pace group in your scenario. Even if you might be able to survive a positive split, it is much more fun to be passing in the second half of the marathon and there will be at least a handful of runners to chase in the second half

I’m thinking I will line up with the pace group and run a few miles with them, if it feels comfortable I will keep going and then reevaluate after ~25k, otherwise I will slow down a bit and let them gain a few s every mile on me.

If you really get 3-4s/m if someone else is breaking the wind it kind of seems like a better choice to try and follow them

I assume he's running Seville this Sunday. It has a 2:45 pacer and a 3:00 pacer, but nothing in between. I have a friend running who plans to go with the 2:45 pace group. Weather is looking good -- good luck!

my 2c wrote:

What marathon has a 2:45 pacer but not a 2:50 pacer? It would make a lot more sense to go with the 2:50 pace group for the first half if there was one.

Trying to PR puts your pacing on a knife edge, and the difference between 6:29/mile (2:50) and 6:17/mile (2:45) over 26.2 miles seems pretty significant to me. I think the chances are a lot higher that you'll blow up badly at the faster pace than you'll hang on for a big PR. You'll have to decide if that risk is worth it.

Another option is to just use your GPS watch or mile splits to keep yourself on pace.

You are correct! Yeah conditions look perfect, so hopefully will finish the day with a big pr, good luck to your friend as well!

3 minutes in a full is possible on a good day, if it was a half that would be ill advised

"try to speed up after 25k" is a bad idea for a marathon IMHO

so go for it, you can always positive split if need be after mile 20-22

you will likely find other people falling off at that point as well so I don't think you'd find yourself alone

having a 2:45 pacer is rare treat, use it, try to play the mental game of seeing how little effort you can use to keep up and just maintain

make sure you hit all your fueling points because nutrition is going to be critical at that pace

good luck!!!

(and report back with result!)

Go for broke and surprise yourself. It's not that crazy different of a pace from what you are looking for, and it's a lot easier to latch on to a group and shut your brain off.

My pr is 2:37, so I'm an OK marathoner. Personally, I find it easier to do my own thing. I do 100% of my hard runs solo, and I find it mentally easier to clip off miles at a fast pace if I'm not thinking about what other people are doing. In my PR, I ran with a group going about my goal pace through 10k or so and then let them go when I thought they were pushing too hard on an extended climb. In the end, I did what felt best for me and I passed all of them before the finish. You should run on feel; if it feels ok to go with the group, do it. If it feels too fast, fall back. If it feels too slow, push ahead.