I'm guessing zero wrote:
Quick question?
How many IPCC climate models predicted this cold vortex?
Really good question.
Also, how many IPCC climate models predicted Tom Brady to make it to 2019 Super Bowl?
Obviously, the work of the IPCC is HIGHLY suspect!
Just checking in to see if any interesting discussion has evolved.
Every couple of climate change threads I throw out an update of my late 2014 naive “prediction” of future temperatures, that I pulled together over about four hours in October that year. Recently I took a look to see how well I’ve done in comparison with the various IPCC reports predictions over the years. Maybe I’ll share an update after I get the December HADCRUT point so I can close out 2018.
My point of view has always been one of firm fence sitting; not with respect to the question of climate change (this is undeniably truly occurring) but rather on the degree with which human activity contributes. My evolving belief suggests that solar variability explains much more than expected in IPCC projections, and I’m still entirely uncertain as to the role of human activity.
This uncertainty renders me an admitted idiot with respect to understanding AGW. Or a paid shill, depending on your point of view. Happy to accept either label for my anonymous presence and contributions.
Some years ago, climate alarmists informed us "we don't get cold/snowy winters like we used to any more because of global warming.... " Now they are like "cold/snowy winters are caused by global warming."
Another example: in 2013 they claimed a link between GW and tornadoes. Now, with 2018 having no violent USA tornadoes, this trial balloon "theory" has been cricketed.
Heads: the climate industry gets funded $1.5 trillion dollars, tails: they get funded $1.6 trillion
Simply put, no predictive methods here, other than to predict everything, and then note that one of the predictions happened to pan out!
I'm guessing zero also wrote:
I'm guessing zero wrote:
Quick question?
How many IPCC climate models predicted this cold vortex?
Really good question.
Just like with the "Standard Model" of physics, where they predicted neutrinos were massless but then easily fudged it when experiment proved otherwise, there's enough parameters in climate models to evince almost anything if you try hard enough.
I.e., if there's 100 models (counting variations) and you exploit randomness (chaotic butterfly effect) and run each 1 million times for the year 2018 into January 2019, there's at least some chance that one of them might have a polar vortex hitting the USA midwest.
Anyway, here was the NOAA best-guess.
When it comes to the temperature, the entire country is expected to see warmer than average temps continuing throughout the second half of the season. Warmer temperature patterns across much of the United States are expected to continue straight through to March.
The 2018 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):
Temperature
Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.
The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
Thread humorist wrote:
https://twitter.com/dwallbank/status/1090580600241770496
It was close to minus 70 in other parts of the midwest! Global Warming ... really?
And don't forget this either!!! LOL
With ten years of hyped claims about Arctic sea ice declining, it takes effort to remember that ice in the Northern Hemisphere isn’t going away. This year’s monthly average for September (the annual minimum) is slightly lower than 2017, but still well above 2007. MASIE shows a surplus of 300k km2 and SII shows 450k km2. As a result, both linear trends are slightly positive, though I would call it a “plateau, ” as opposed to a “death spiral.”
https://rclutz.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/arctic-sept-2007-to-2018.png
Not even melting, already wrote:
With ten years of hyped claims about Arctic sea ice declining, it takes effort to remember that ice in the Northern Hemisphere isn’t going away. This year’s monthly average for September (the annual minimum) is slightly lower than 2017, but still well above 2007. MASIE shows a surplus of 300k km2 and SII shows 450k km2. As a result, both linear trends are slightly positive, though I would call it a “plateau, ” as opposed to a “death spiral.”
https://rclutz.files.wordpress.com/2018/10/arctic-sept-2007-to-2018.png
But what about the pics of polar bears desperately clinging to slivers of ice? Was that not true?
This thread gives me great hope that despite the MSM, academia, Big tech, and the democrats - there is still a healthy percentage of climate realists out there. By the way, according to the DMI, Arctic Sea Ice is doing quite well this season.
Forecasters warn to ‘minimize talking’ outdoors
Actually, I think this is a good idea in any weather.
Further, make sure your mouth is covered to protect your lungs from severely cold air," the NWS said. "Avoid taking deep breaths; minimize talking."
No penalty for being wrong wrote:
I'm guessing zero also wrote:
Really good question.
Also, how many IPCC climate models predicted Tom Brady to make it to 2019 Super Bowl?
Obviously, the work of the IPCC is HIGHLY suspect!
Just like with the "Standard Model" of physics, where they predicted neutrinos were massless but then easily fudged it when experiment proved otherwise, there's enough parameters in climate models to evince almost anything if you try hard enough.
I.e., if there's 100 models (counting variations) and you exploit randomness (chaotic butterfly effect) and run each 1 million times for the year 2018 into January 2019, there's at least some chance that one of them might have a polar vortex hitting the USA midwest.
Anyway, here was the NOAA best-guess.
When it comes to the temperature, the entire country is expected to see warmer than average temps continuing throughout the second half of the season. Warmer temperature patterns across much of the United States are expected to continue straight through to March.
https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/winter-outlook-favors-warmer-temperatures-for-much-of-usThe 2018 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):
Temperature
Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.
The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
You know you've lost the debate when you have to resort to mis-quoting the posts of others. So I fixed that up for you.
And again,
"Really good question.
Also, how many IPCC climate models predicted Tom Brady to make it to 2019 Super Bowl?
Obviously, the work of the IPCC is HIGHLY suspect!"
Oh, and you know how else you know you lost the debate? When someone points out to you the difference between weather and climate and you come back with more links about weather.
So, you are really making good points! (Tee Hee)
Should be above normal and rainy next week.
Then we can get back to our pre-programmed narrative of warming winters.
https://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2019/01/next-week-switch.png
Anyway, here was the NOAA best-guess.
The 2018 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):
Temperature
Warmer-than-normal conditions are anticipated across much of the northern and western U.S., with the greatest likelihood in Alaska and from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Plains.
The Southeast, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic all have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures.
No part of the U.S. is favored to have below-average temperatures.
What does "average temperature" mean anyway, when radiation-wise the Stefan-Boltzmann law says its a fourth-power relation (in particular, not linear)?
Just a reminder.
Last winter was "record cold" with a polar vortex also.
https://mashable.com/2018/01/25/arctic-blast-as-polar-vortex-shifts-south-toward-canada-us/
Snowflake poster wrote:
Just a reminder.
Last winter was "record cold" with a polar vortex also.
And the year before that too.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/09/the-polar-vortex-is-coming-heres-what-that-means-and-how-cold-it-could-get/1. The last time Central Canada saw the polar vortex set up around the great lakes was back in 2015.
2. Polar vortex over US brings abnormally mild weather (Jan 2014)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jan/10/polar-vortex-us-mild-weather-scandinavia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_North_American_polar_vortex
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014%E2%80%9315_North_American_winter
This is happening, and yet our media will only ask the politicians what the price of Cheerios is and what rap artists they listen to?
Same with the wildfires in CA, no accountability (well, PG&E is bankrupt, but will they be criminally jailed?)
