Could Sydney McLaughlin break the women’s 800m world record?

Phoebe Wright wrote:

The year I ran 1.09.7 in the indoor 500m, I ran 1.58.2 outdoors.

Sydney could break the American record if she *wants* to. That's a big if. The 800m is all about the motivation.

The world record is probably untouchable. At least for a while....

What ever you can run in the 400m add 5 seconds and that's what you can come through in. The last lap is 59 seconds if you are super fit. That's the ceiling.

-Phoebe Wright

Actually, she thought about doing an 800 during her year at UK, but Floreal talked her out of it. He did think that she could run 2:03-04 at the time.

bbn wrote:

Phoebe Wright wrote:

The year I ran 1.09.7 in the indoor 500m, I ran 1.58.2 outdoors.

Sydney could break the American record if she *wants* to. That's a big if. The 800m is all about the motivation.

The world record is probably untouchable. At least for a while....

What ever you can run in the 400m add 5 seconds and that's what you can come through in. The last lap is 59 seconds if you are super fit. That's the ceiling.

-Phoebe Wright

Actually, she thought about doing an 800 during her year at UK, but Floreal talked her out of it. He did think that she could run 2:03-04 at the time.

Impressing a coach in a workout session is not the same as racing well. 400m athletes have the psychological temperament and are physically accustomed to doing intense workouts. I am sure S.M. was able to do 9x300m workouts at 800m 2:03 race pace. 400m runners often over achieve in workouts. Besides high school P.E. class, I do not think S.M. has even raced 600m. Let's see a good 600m time before well call S.M. a good 800m runner.

Phoebe Wright wrote:

The year I ran 1.09.7 in the indoor 500m, I ran 1.58.2 outdoors.

Sydney could break the American record if she *wants* to. That's a big if. The 800m is all about the motivation.

The world record is probably untouchable. At least for a while....

What ever you can run in the 400m add 5 seconds and that's what you can come through in. The last lap is 59 seconds if you are super fit. That's the ceiling.

-Phoebe Wright

I didn't know whether to add an e after the b in my username as that would sound like two phoebes, I wish!!

Anywhoo, do you think that rule of thumb holds true for someone like Syd who has raw leg speed? She wouldn't have the endurance to go through in 55-56-57 and hold a 59-60 in my opinion. Syd's a great all round talent obviously but the 8 is a monster for those who succeed at the sprints bar Juantorena and Korir oddities and Syd would have more raw leg speed on a gender neutral scale than those two. I gotta go with the hyenas on this and say 2:02-2:04 max.

P.S Why are you married? We could've had fun together.

Shamier Little has similar PR's to Sydney (including the exact same 400m hurdles PR) and ran a 2:16.03 this month for 800m

https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/united-states/shamier-little-258893

Look up these girls with similar 400H PR's to Sydney, who's run 800m.

https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/jamaica/melaine-walker-135197

2:21.99! From the looks of it she wasn't in shape at the time (ran a 55.X 400m hurdles soon after but still ran 52.73 a few months later, faster than Sydney's PR)

https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/united-states/lashinda-demus-173392

2:07.49. Ran 52.77 for 400 hurdles that year and 52.47 the year before (Sydey's PR is 52.75 FYI)

https://www.iaaf.org/athletes/united-states/kim-batten-60132

2:10.35. Ran 52.97 400m hurdles that year.

My guess was 2:08-2:10 for Sydney. These seems reasonable, if not even a high guess. Of course, this would be her starting time off of her sprint training, I'd bet with 800m training she could break 2:00 at least (but NO WR, obviously).

Also, the fact that Sydney ran like a 25-min 5k does NOT help her case vs. these girls, if anything it further proves the point that she's all fast-twitch... and her fast twitch also seems to be greater than these girls I listed (faster 100 and 200 times), correlating to a slower 800m than them.

Like Really Bro wrote:

The women’s 800m needs to be cleaned up. With other events, you could argue and postulate and infer all sorts of things, lacking proof all the while.

With the women’s 800m, all you have to do is use your eyes. It would be extremely hard to confuse the world record holder for a woman. She is clearly not, at to where her drugs took her physically. We have openly trans women competing all throughout the world, dominating the 800m from international level down to high school level.

...

It sounds like you've confused "trans" with "intersex". Don't conflate those; they're really different in terms of trying to define fairness.

We hear this sort of thing all the time about 400 runners and their potential over 800. Surely, it is often said, a 45 second 400 guy could cruise through in 50 seconds and proceed to run 50-51 for the next lap? (Or a woman capable of 50 seconds could cruise through in 55 etc. etc.)

It never happens. The endurance needed to maintain the speed for another 400 (not just another 200!!) is always underestimated. The training needed is very different from that of a world class 400 runner. why would a world class 400 runner, who is making a good living from that distance, risk moving up to 800 when in all probability they will be no ,more than average?