David S wrote:
It's just going to be two separate races. Mo isn't going to try to run 2:02.
Are you sure about that?
Last year Mo DID go out at 61 flat like Kipchoge did. I think that means he will indeed go with the lead group no matter what. It was warmer London than usual, and he still held together "OK" considering the fast start. Then in Chicago, he ran 205 with a pretty nice negative split of 63/62. At what point, if any, would you like Farah's chances?
61:00 (2:02:00) - Nope
61:15 (2:02:30) - Nope
61:30 (2:03:00) - Nope
61:45 (2:03:30) - Doubtful, but I think Farah would be in the picture at the finish.
62:00 (2:04:00) - Still doubtful, but if Kipchoge is not in top shape, then it is possible.
62:15 (2:04:30) - Even odds. Kipchoge has only went this "slow" like once outside of the Olympics, and Farah should have the strength by then to finish fast.
62:30 (2:05:00) - Farah. Either the weather was bad or Kipchoge was totally off his game to go this slow.
Any pace first half with a significant slow down in second half, which is not due to hot conditions, I think favors Farah as well. Championship pedigree, improving rapidly at the marathon, and Kipchoge has to eventually have a bad day, right?