wrote: 4:49 to 4:10 Op here.. wrote:
I’m Not a troll . I agree with your 410 is equivalent to 1430 assessment. Even mid D1 schools say 410 to be recruited and I know those high school milers aren’t doing 1430. Either way, I imagine that this is a common problem without a great solution: there’s a kid who’s committed, doing 60 mile weeks on his own, not a great training squad or support around, ran 449 freshman mile, low 17’s Xc off 30 mile weeks. I know 410 is tough but he’s willing to work the next 2.5 years to get close. What are his options? Other schools won’t train him. I’ve found that Finding a coach is easier than finding training partners.
In other words there must be a way to train a committed talented kid who doesn’t have the right situation. Especially if we can pay. I just can’t find it.
If your son can go from 4:49 to 4:10, who gives a sh&t about his XC results. The person who holds my high school record in the mile, a 4:08.xx high school one mile runner, ran 440 yard relay legs in 51.xx or 52.xx. My college sub-4 minute 1500m teammates were all sub-1:53 800m runners. One's Marathon ceiling is based on a ratio of one's 1500m PB. The Bill Rodgers/Dick Beardsley types most likely raced Marathon 32.5 times their 1500m PB. Rod Dixon raced Marathon 36 times his 1500m PB. Most race Marathon 33 to 35 times one's PB. Your son's 400m PB is very important to know.
While I second, that it makes sense to progress the shorter distances, as they are important when someone wants to get really fast, I feel like your formula ist was oft the charts.
The assumption that most people are running marathons at 33 - 35 x 1500 time is perhaps indicator of optimal Marathon time, but for sure not normal. It is a rough guess for elites.
E.g.: Most 2:20 runners run master 1500 than 4:00 - 4:14.
Most 2:30 runners run faster than 4:17 - 4:32
Most 3:00 runners run faster than 5:08 - 5:27.
So for most people the Marathon ceiling is way slower than 33 - 35 x 1500 imo. But for very fast runners I like the formula!