2:50 Guy wanting an OTQ in 5 years

It's impossible to tell because we don't know how long you've been running.

I'm going to assume about a year. Your results are ok. Not great, but not horrible either.

If you've been only into running for about a year and are running a 4:50 mile (about 4:52 converting your 1500), that is respectable. Your 20's and early 30's are ideal for achieving great athletic results.

To run a marathon in 2:19 means 5:20 miles (off the top of my head)

See if you can get to 70, 80 and even 100mpw.

Chances are (I don't want to sound negative) you will get some kind of injury that will keep you out for at least a short period of time. Almost every runner gets injured somehow.

Keep that in mind. Especially when you're running 10 miles or more/day.

Focus on putting in 100 mile weeks for the next 2 years.

If you are putting in 100 mile weeks regularly, you'll notice dramatic improvements.

Focus on increasing your volume for 100mpw for a full 2-3 years, gradually increasing the pace.

Months and years of consistent training lays a foundation to go leaps and bounds above what you are doing now.

If you could run sub-2:50 on relatively low mileage of 88 km chances are you can go pretty far. You an gradually increase it to twice as much and see gains almost regardless of the workouts you'll do, and if you train intelligently there'll be really massive improvements. But OTQ is such a long shot there's no way you can realistically plan so far ahead. Maybe try to qualify for Berlin/Tokyo at 2:45 first. Then Fukuoka at 2:35. Then break 2:30 to get sub-elite treatment (including comped entry at some races).

Slim

Set realistic goals

400m pr?

this guy has the shittiest blog i've ever seen in my life

Curtis wrote:

You need to average 5:20 pace for 26+;

Well that's a sure fire way to get 2:20 high or 2:21 low because to cover the actual measured distance (course measurement adds a slight overage to make sure the race distance is covered) plus the inevitable tangent-loss you will run about 26.32 minimum. You'd be a fool not to be prepared for 5:18 pace.

NewtotheSouthSide wrote:

What do folks think? In the spirit of this thread -- not trashing on OP & others working towards their goals -- what would be the right move now to try to bring the marathon down? At some point long tempos will stop working when your top end speed doesn't get any faster. I feel like if I don't improve at the mile/3k/5k then my ceiling for the marathon doesn't really move much. I'm also getting older (27) and you usually see people move away from the shorter stuff by then or around then but when I started running I just started running slow + long & eventually that got me somewhat fast but nowhere near OTQ level.

Also she ran an OTQ at CIM after that was published.

2:19 is not that crazy. Most sub elite guys that miss it fall apart by aiming to run 2:15-2:17 range rather than gunning for 2:19 and move from there. You can do it in 5 years man. You will need to up your volume. Start with 60mpw and improve by 10 miles a week per year. Limit the amount of marathons you race for the first 2-3 years. Focus on 5k's, 10k's, and Halfs to allow your body enough recovery time. Develop your body and muscles into a competitive runner. Eat clean. Strengthen your body head to toe. Be disciplined. In 5 years you can get to it. The only people saying you can't are these people on this message board who are too scared to try it for themselves or don't believe in themselves. Get out the door everyday and don't make excuses. If you want it, you start on Monday! Good luck!

Assuming you relatively new to the sport, sub 2:20 may be possible but if so you are going to need to see a lot of progress over the next year. I'd say that to have sub-2:20 potential 5-years out, you had better be running close to 2:30 a year from now. That means you need to break 2:40 this spring. My advice is to follow the same plan but peak at about 110km=70mpw and aim for a sub 2:40 this spring then report back. Don't worry too much about the shorter stuff. Running 2:50 off of 88km=55mpw and a 17:30 5K PR indicates that the marathon is probably your best distance.

Thanks, everyone for the input. Will try to increase mileage and decide some targets this year. Will get back again on this post if I see any significant improvement :)

Please keep us up to date. I’m in a similar boat but I’m giving myself more like 8 years to make it. I’m 31 now. I was pro in a different sport and it took me about 10 years to finally compete at a world class level. I started as an untalented novice in that sport and continually progressed and now I wonder if I can do the same with this one. I find it interesting that we don’t see more people with big goals like yourself in this sport. For what it’s worth I’m 2 years in with a 2:50 as well. What’s the worst that can happen? I hit a plateau in a 7 years and have to settle as a decent local runner...

I'm interested in a 2028 OTQ as well. I have a 2:51 from my first marathon. Also, I have improved my HM time from 1:22 to 1:16 since my marathon, so I should be due for a mean PR.

Goodluck with your training!

I ran 2:57 as a 54 year old. Do you think I can break 2:20 for the marathon? I did it averaging only 60 miles a week.

Age is against you

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I ran 2:57 as a 54 year old. Do you think I can break 2:20 for the marathon? I did it averaging only 60 miles a week.

Igy, how old were you when you broke 2:20? What was your first marathon time, and how long between that and your PR? Mileage during those years?

Allen1959 wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

I ran 2:57 as a 54 year old. Do you think I can break 2:20 for the marathon? I did it averaging only 60 miles a week.

Igy, how old were you when you broke 2:20? What was your first marathon time, and how long between that and your PR? Mileage during those years?

Allen1959,

I averaged about 110 miles a week from 1970-1976, age 19-26 when I retired. I competed in two OT marathons 1972 and 1976. I ran better in the non-Olympic years of 1973-1975 where I was top 10 US. My first marathon was at age 21 2:22:20 (3rd Mission Bay 1/1972) and at that time I had run 145 miles peak that fall while I was a student-atlhlete at Oklahoma State. My best year was 9/1973-7/1974 where I ran a 2;20:06 on a very windy day for 2nd at the Western Hemisphere Marathon (12/1973) and a 2:19:15 at Boston for 13th (4/1974). During that stretch of 9/1973 thru 7/1974 I probably averaged closer to 130 miles a week and raced maybe 16 times that year. In addition to the two marathons that year I raced 16 miles, 30 kilometers and 20 miles. Good or bad, there was some intensity in addition to the miles, all of which was common at the time.

I consider myself on the lower end of ability to run 2:20:00 and yet I still had 52 400m speed and a 4:13 mile. I routinely ran 10 mile races at 50:00 and 6 mile races in 30:00, with best 48:46 and 29:08. These were common racing distances in that era, equivalent to today’s 1/2 marathons and 10Ks. I also set the then American Record for looped 30 Kilometer road race in 1:35:30 or 5:08/mile or 31:50/10k, that race was one month before Boston,

The point here is I was a national class guy; one of dozens. Not that special. Still I had to have some basic ability to run 2:20:00. Of course anything is possible, but deluding yourself is not helpful.

Igy

peen nass wrote:

DietBacon wrote:

I'm gonna bookmark this thread and keep it updated with my progress. Official OTQ-aspiring hobbyjoggers thread. Wooo go us!

Well count me in.....if all goes well I'll be running a 2 fitty low on a hilly course this Spring at age 34. What are my odds of getting to OTQ?

Count me in as well; I have lifetime bests of 1:52 / 3:53 (800m / 1500m ). I started running again and am hoping to get an OTQ for 2024. I recently ran a 17:00 5k, so very far away right now, but I've only averaged 28 mpw so far.

Keeping this thread open - would love to hear how everyone's training is going! Hit 53 miles this week.

Did you run cross country in college, and if you did how did that go?

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

Did you run cross country in college, and if you did how did that go?

I did do cross country, but was always more of a middle distance guy. I think some of that was because I started running junior year of high school, and was only running about 35 mpw going into college. I usually got left off the bus on the traveling meets, and the meets I did go to, I tended to underperform.

I ran 19:36 on a hilly 4-mile XC course as a sophomore, but spent alot of time trying to keep up with the faster guys and ended up getting injured shortly after that with posterier tibial tendonitis and then IT band syndrome shortly after - these basically ended my college career. I see now that I should've taken my progression more slowly.

The most I ever ran was around 60 mpw, so I'm looking to slowly increase the mileage and see what I can do.