Expect a great year.
Expect a great year.
If you look at the stats this was a particularly bad year for u.s. men's depth in the 1500m:
2002 was the most recent year that our 2nd fastest runner was slower than Hunter's 35.90, and even our 3rd fastest 1500m runner was faster than this in all but 3 of the years from 2001-2017. In fact, the average time of our 3rd fastest runner from 2001-2018 was 3:34.89, over a second faster than Drew's time this year.
This was also the first year since 2009 that our top 5 were not all under 3:36. Even considering more modest goals, 2011 is the last year so few u.s. men ran under 3:40.
I'm not completely sure why this is the case, but if I had to hazard a guess; male middle distance runners tend to hit their peak around 25-28 years old. None of the recent sub-4:00 high school milers (or 4:00 guys for that matter) are that old yet. All of the current top milers are either guys that ran 4:03+ in high school, or under the age of 25. Lukas Verzbicas could've fit the bill but he chose a different path (and paid for it). The guys that are currently coming up on the beginning of their peak (Izaic Yorks, Craig Engels, etc.) were all 4:03+ in high school, which says that they might just not have the talent to run 3:30. The recent crop of sub-4:00 high schoolers are at most 21 years old, and that class (Fisher and Maton) have either moved away from the mile or moved away from running in general. The next year had Hunter and Slagowski; Hunter is running fantastically imo, but he's 20 years old and nowhere near his physical prime. Slagowski has also moved away from the elite running scene. And of course the next generation of Reed Brown, Cooper Teare, David Principe, Sam Worley, Casey Clinger, Brodey Hasty, Waleed Suliman are all too young to be expected to compete.
So in conclusion, the current 25-28-year-olds had a bit of a talent drought, accentuated by Verzbicas no longer running and a lack of development in the little talent that was there. The older studs are exactly that, getting a little long in the tooth and hampered by injuries and such. The young guns are talented, for sure, but too young to be running world-class times. Give them a few years and the 19-20 year olds running 3:35-3:40 now will be running 3:30-3:35 and the USA will be back in thee #2 middle distance slot (behind Kenya as always).
gahagand wrote:
Give them a few years and the 19-20 year olds running 3:35-3:40 now will be running 3:30-3:35 and the USA will be back in thee #2 middle distance slot (behind Kenya as always).
US is gonna be worse than freaking Norway for the foreseeable future. They went 3:30, 3:31, 3:35 this year, what two guys do we have who can touch 3:31?
Tony: wrote:
rojo wrote:
a 3:35.90 1500 is equivalent to a 2:11:40 marathon
Kawauchi ran 3:50.51 and 2:08:14 marathon
Because he is a marathoner and not a 1500m runner.
Equivalent means the times have the same “value”, not that you should be able to run one if you can run the other.
According to IAAF tables, my college 1500m was equivalent to a 10.48 100m but I couldn’t break 12 seconds with a flying start....
ric flair woo wrote:
because our best athletes go into basketball and football. nobody really cares about the mile except for track nerds
Which is a pity because basketballers and footballers make great milers.
Sub-3:32 guys are going be produced by high school lads with 400m/800m personal of bests while in high school of: sub-51/sub-1:52 400/800 like Steve Holman and Steve Scott. I know both Steves were close to those results in high school. I believe both were slower than 4:15 1600m/one mile in high school. That doesn't matter. You need guys with decent 400m speed in high school, not high mileage joggers with not so good 400m PB.
areusure? wrote:
they're just not very good wrote:
there aren't many US distance runners outside of Bowerman Track Club, the Army Group and Oregon Project that are serious medal threats on the global scene. the best guy in each of those groups is an absolute medal threat (Chelimo, Centro, Jager, Centro, Murphy, Rupp). In that group, we have a medal contender in every event from 800 to marathon. It's been decades since that was a statement you could make.
No there's no medal contender in the marathon in that group unless you give them a mile head start...then maybe.
Interestingly enough the one marathoner in the group already won an Olympic medal...
TheRunningTroll wrote:
areusure? wrote:
No there's no medal contender in the marathon in that group unless you give them a mile head start...then maybe.
Interestingly enough the one marathoner in the group already won an Olympic medal...
+1
There's always one. wrote:
ric flair woo wrote:
because our best athletes go into basketball and football. nobody really cares about the mile except for track nerds
Which is a pity because basketballers and footballers make great milers.
What a stupid response from you. Completely missing the point.
Nobody is saying the problem is that 6'7" 250-pound NBA or NFL players aren't running the mile.
The problem is that even the countless 130-150 pound weaklings in high school, the very basis for HS XC programs, would rather do any other sport.
Literally millions of lean to normal-sized, motivated kids would rather ride the bench on a ball team then do track, for many reasons. You don't think there might be some good milers in that? Or do you prefer the current intake process of just taking every kid who can't play anything else?
ric flair woo wrote:
because our best athletes go into basketball and football. nobody really cares about the mile except for track nerds
How would El G or Coe have done at basketball or American football.
ukathleticscoach wrote:
ric flair woo wrote:
because our best athletes go into basketball and football. nobody really cares about the mile except for track nerds
How would El G or Coe have done at basketball or American football.
What is your point?
One family in Norway plus one family in Kenya had five guys in 2018 better than the second fastest American at 1500m.
We are not developing our talent at the distance, despite a system with thousands of high schools and hundreds of D1 universities competing in the sport, plus big shoe companies and numerous post-collegiate training groups, plenty of high altitude locations for training, and better facilities than anywhere else.
The point is what would have Lebron done in the Mile/1500?
ex-runner wrote:
ukathleticscoach wrote:
How would El G or Coe have done at basketball or American football.
What is your point?
Daniels says 3:36 is actually equivalent to 2:08:48. And this was our worst year in the 1,500m.
Our marathoners are incredibly inept compared to our track runners.
zxcvzcxv wrote:
One family in Norway plus one family in Kenya had five guys in 2018 better than the second fastest American at 1500m.
We are not developing our talent at the distance, despite a system with thousands of high schools and hundreds of D1 universities competing in the sport, plus big shoe companies and numerous post-collegiate training groups, plenty of high altitude locations for training, and better facilities than anywhere else.
Wouldn't your argument show it's genetics, yet you are complaining about our system not working?
Think about it. The Manangoi and Ingebrigtsen's dominate Kenya and Norway and in America - our best is the son of a former American record holder.
I agree with this. I believe people like Paul Chelimo who have served in the military should be able to represent the US. However, they do break records that only an American should have.
TheRunningTroll wrote:
areusure? wrote:
No there's no medal contender in the marathon in that group unless you give them a mile head start...then maybe.
Interestingly enough the one marathoner in the group already won an Olympic medal...
. . . Unfortunately, it turns out that . . .
. . . He runs on a slender dirt road the color of rust. His legs churn with an easy rhythm as he passes clumps of snow, then thorn trees and sage swaying in the winter wind.
Out here on the Northern Arizona desert, he is easy prey.
It's January, and there's a stillness about Feyisa Lilesa, even in the 12th mile of a workout.
He is with another runner because it's riskier to train alone.
With every compact stride, Lilesa lands on the balls of his feet and then flicks his size 9 Nike™, creating a soft shushing sound.
. . . The stillness surrounding him belies the feelings in his heart.
Until late last summer, the 27-year-old called Ethiopia, not FLAGSTAFF, his home.
But since the Rio Olympics, when he won a SILVER medal in the Olympic marathon . . . and ABSOLUTELY DESTROYED/CRUSHED . . . Mr. Galen Rupp . . . AT THE SAME TIME.
For Example:
http://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/id/19265974/why-olympic-silver-medalist-feyisa-lilesa-go-homehttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/24/sports/olympics/feyisa-lilesa-marathon-olympic-protest.htmlOh well.
It's not a big surprise.
Your post has nothing to do with USA 1500m/one mile runners.
wow you don't get it at all wrote:
There's always one. wrote:
Which is a pity because basketballers and footballers make great milers.
What a stupid response from you. Completely missing the point.
Nobody is saying the problem is that 6'7" 250-pound NBA or NFL players aren't running the mile.
The problem is that even the countless 130-150 pound weaklings in high school, the very basis for HS XC programs, would rather do any other sport.
Literally millions of lean to normal-sized, motivated kids would rather ride the bench on a ball team then do track, for many reasons. You don't think there might be some good milers in that? Or do you prefer the current intake process of just taking every kid who can't play anything else?
Perhaps you should learn how to make your point:
"How to make your point. Choose your point before you start writing. Decide what you are trying to say before you actually start writing. Gather evidence to prove your point. You've got a point you want to make. Deliver your evidence and then trim away unnecessary material."