PoliSci PhD student wrote:
3. Turkey: Doing it in Turkey was a ridiculous idea...
Obviously, it turned out that way, but it might have looked different from the The Kingdom before hand. Some possibilities:
1) They may have been trying to send Erdogan a message. After all, MBS was upset with Erdogan for interfering in the Saudi led boycott of Qatar. Maybe MBS's team thought killing Khashoggi in Turkey would scare Erdogan off.
2) They may have misunderstood the dangers. MBS's team has a history of over-reaching in their foreign adventures. The most obvious example is Tarek Obaid. In 2016, MBS's team asked the Chinese to arrest Obaid as a terrorist. Before sending him back to the Kingdom, the Chinese interrogated Obaid and examined his electronics. They decided the Saudis were lying, and released Obaid, who ended up in Switzerland.
MBS has a record of bold moves, many of which do not play out as he expected. Many chalk this up to his lack of experience.
In the jargon of PoliSci, it's all about ex-ante v. ex-post.