800 dude wrote:
CouchLover wrote:
He deserves a proper couch.
Agreed. He's had a long and distinguished career. He should put his feet up and play X-box from here on out. The guy definitely deserves a proper couch.
Dang it I'm too late.
800 dude wrote:
CouchLover wrote:
He deserves a proper couch.
Agreed. He's had a long and distinguished career. He should put his feet up and play X-box from here on out. The guy definitely deserves a proper couch.
Dang it I'm too late.
Run Down wrote:
I'm pretty sure I will get to see one in my lifetime now. Granted, Eliud Kipchoge is a once in a generation talent. I wouldn't put it past him to take the wr down to a low sub 2:01 before he's done. However, some of the young guys on the track now like Solomon Barega and such will have an even better shot at it once they attempt the marathon with possibly more speed and even better shoes. I think its just a matter of time now.
Bekele is more talented than kipchoge. He just doesn't train at anywhere near the same level. Kipchoge's massive improvement on the wr is fueled by shoe technology. A sub 2 is not imminent without technology breakthroughs and I dont mean in training or recovery. I mean drugs and more efficient shoes. If everyone was wearing non cheater shoes and not on PEDS no one would even be talking about sub 2.
Oh Please wrote:
3hr-marathoner wrote:
This is my first thought. The progression in the men's marathon over the last decade has finally brought the all time performances in line with those in the 5 and 10k. I think further improvements in the marathon world record will be rare and incremental from this point forward and will correspond with all-around improvements in distance running arising from better training, tracks, shoes, (drugs...). For instance I don't necessarily expect to see a sub 2-hour marathon before we see a sub 26-minute 10000m and considering how long the track records have lasted, it may be a while.
There are a couple of points that need to be considered:
1) Marathon is now the premiere event in distance running.
2) The 10000m is on life support as a global event.
Did anyone think Rupp would have the fastest 10,000 time of the past 6 years? But yet, he does.
which is also to say that no one has run within 22 seconds of the 10000m record in over 6 years. It's true that the 10000m is no longer attracting top talent on the men's side but whether the 10000m record will be broken any time soon isn't central to my point. For a long time the marathon record was ripe to be shattered. All that had to happen was for someone to wave money at a Geb or a Bekele when they were running low 26:20's for 10000m and they could have brought the marathon record to about where it is now, no revolution in training or equipment necessary. With Kipchoge's record I believe that's no longer the case. To shatter the marathon record again would require something new: new talent, new training, something.
I meant 28 seconds.
Sub 2 is inevitable as soon as the Vaporfly 8% is released.
Run Down wrote:
Is a sub 2 hour marathon pretty much certain in the next 10 or 15 years from now?
I'm pretty sure I will get to see one in my lifetime now.
What guarantee do you have that you will live another 10 or 15 years? Or until next year, or even tomorrow for that matter?
But the reason that Death Valley or the Dead Sea wasn't chosen for the breaking 2 attempt was because those two places are very hot and if the people behind the event decided to have at those two places. The trial would have to start at night and into early morning to get the 50 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit that they wanted.
the 10k on the track is dead.
2600 is the correct time for bekele paced well or better.
it there are five or six 202 guys out there in the future and they decide to get masterful pacing, then you'll see
200x marathon for sure, and under if all the stars allign with the conditions and a couple of guys being super max peak.
for sure. something like this happens.
Banana Bread wrote:
I don't think about it will happen anytime soon. Bekele is the world's greatest runner which ran a clean 2:03:03. He has the potential to get a low 2:01 with a consistent training and clearing up his injury problems. He deserves a proper couch but I don't think he seems to train on his own and isn't really getting any couching. That would help him.
Banana,
Your love of all things Bekele is troubling. I could see you with a peep hole camera at his hotel cranking one out in the hall way.
Give him a ring, maybe he goes your way?
Get it over with wrote:
Banana,
Your love of all things Bekele is troubling. I could see you with a peep hole camera at his hotel cranking one out in the hall way.
Give him a ring, maybe he goes your way?
Careful Banana Bread.
All African countries except South Africa hate gay people. That includes Ethiopia. Bekele man-love is strictly off-limits.
Gay people get beaten and stoned in Africa, despite Obama's useless pleadings which made Africans think that Obama and all Americans are gay.
“(A sub-2) probably won’t happen in my lifetime and I’m 39. There’s zero chance it happens before I’m 50 (2023). I’d be willing to bet anyone all of my eventual monthly social security checks I’ll get in 25 years that it hasn’t happened by the time I’m 65 (2038) as well.”
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/05/eliud-kipchoges-20025-monumental-step-forward-marathoning-no-not-still-20-years-away-legitimate-sub-2-marathon/I'm less confident in the 2038 than I used to be mainly because of the cheating shoes but still stand by most of what I wrote.
rojo wrote:
“(A sub-2) probably won’t happen in my lifetime and I’m 39. There’s zero chance it happens before I’m 50 (2023). I’d be willing to bet anyone all of my eventual monthly social security checks I’ll get in 25 years that it hasn’t happened by the time I’m 65 (2038) as well.”
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/05/eliud-kipchoges-20025-monumental-step-forward-marathoning-no-not-still-20-years-away-legitimate-sub-2-marathon/I'm less confident in the 2038 than I used to be mainly because of the cheating shoes but still stand by most of what I wrote.
My brain literally tells me you couldn't be 39 if your 50 in 2023 or 65 in 2038. I agree though that it won't happen by then clean. Evan if it does then it will be through doping and more carbon springs. The closest we will see anyone get is Bekele next year.
It's not uncommon for records like this to take 10-15 years to drop. Right now you have a whole Olympic team full of people who know Kipchoge is in another league. They may as well take up different events or just run for wins in lesser races. You could get a good talent who trains well like Kipchoge, but it's hard to imagine. Very few Kenyans and Ethiopians are stringing together long careers anymore. Bekele and Kipchoge are impressive for maintaining this so many years. How many other management teams will give their dime a dozen African athletes so many opportunities to improve? Most are getting dropped after just a few years of middling performances and many talents are never given a real opportunity. If people start running after 2, it will be because the old African talents step up as management teams and drop some big money on training groups in the years to come.
S_Dargula wrote:
But the reason that Death Valley or the Dead Sea wasn't chosen for the breaking 2 attempt was because those two places are very hot and if the people behind the event decided to have at those two places. The trial would have to start at night and into early morning to get the 50 to 70 degrees Fahrenheit that they wanted.
In December, Death Valley average low is 38 degrees, average high is 65. No problem. Do and out and back course from Badwater to Furnace Creek.
Of course it is. Not clean, of course. IMO sub 2:05 is not possible clean, African or not. PEDS and equipment will always improve, though.
considering they've already tuned the 4% to now 5%, it just takes one more generation of tuning
very late 2020 after the Olympics in the winter or early 2021
they'll take another ounce off the shoe for the elite version, maybe even find a way not to use the rubber tread and run directly on the pebax block and stiffen the spring further
Reading Letsrun Board it's funny how so many people here are brain washed by Nike's Tactic believing that Kipchoge runs with Vaporfly 4%
My brain literally tells me you couldn't be 39 if your 50 in 2023 or 65 in 2038. I agree though that it won't happen by then clean. Evan if it does then it will be through doping and more carbon springs. The closest we will see anyone get is Bekele next year.
Bekele needs to work on finishing a marathon, forget trying to go for a world record. Bekele is not comfortable with the marathon event. I don't get the sense that he enjoys it like a Kipchoge or Kipsang.
For everyone who seems to attribute the majority of the improvement of the record to advancing shoe technology: When (and who?) do you expect another human not named Eliud Kipchoge* to break 2:03? When do you expect another human to demonstrate that they are within 30 seconds of the performance Kipchoge exhibited in Berlin? Surely if the advances are mostly attributable to advancing shoe technology (that people other than Kipchoge also have access to), we would expect people to begin breaking 2:03 with some kind of frequency. I'm not entirely sure I see this happening...
* Of course Kimetto has already done it but I mean going forward
I think that Kipchoge may be able to continue to lower the record, and he will without a doubt be regarded as the best marathoner of all time (perhaps the best athlete), but he will not be the first under 2. I mean, while Berlin did not seem to be absolutely optimal conditions, a further improvement of 100 seconds is absolutely unfathomable. Who in the history of the sport has improved a world record by a staggering 1%, only to go on to drop it by a further ~1.4%, representing an overall 2.5% improvement on the record?
[Actually I just checked and Haile Gebreselassie more or less accomplished such an improvement, although he was not the only one dropping the record at the time. So maybe it is not out of the question, especially if the technology is improving as massively as some seem to think.]
Just to clarify, I meant that Geb achieved this in the 5000m. Before his first WR the record stood at 12:58; his last record was 12:39.