Coevett wrote:
unless they secretly convert that WADA lab in Nairobi into an EPO production facility.
I would not be surpised if they have done that already. Test samples going straight into the trash with EPO dispensed liberally for a small fee (something like the price of a cup of tea in Kenya). This would seem to be a much better way for the Nairobi lab to make money ....
Threshold pace leveled up to 23 km/hr... First man under 2:00 for the ‘thon. International sporting superstar - savior of athletics.
Who can say wrote:
My Predictions:
800m: 1:43
1500m: 3:27 at age 21-22
Mile: 3:45
5000m: 12:48
Seems unlikely he'll run 1:43 and break 12:50. Has anyone ever? Alan Webb peaked early and rounding down ran 1:43/3:30/13:10. Do we think he has the speed of Webb? My guess is Jakob Ingebrigtsen ends up with a line similar to Webb's but a few seconds slower at 800m and proportionally faster at 5000m. I'll say 1:44/3:30/13:00 and maybe he gets caught in a fast race in Monaco and breaks 3:30 at 1500m by a hair.
I think he's still got a lot of improvement left in him based on the fact that he actually looks like a teenager. He's got some development left in him and will get faster. I wouldn't be shocked with a high 3:28 and a low 12:50 which would be very fast and put him down as one of the best ever for that combination. Now for the medals, it is so difficult to win those. He has to have his best race on the right day to win one. There are multiple other guys that can run sub 3:30 and sub 13:00 that have just as good a shot. If he wins a medal in a third of the next two world-olympic-world cycle races he'd be doing very very well (12 opportunities considering 1500/5k, so 4 medals would be very impressive)
You have to stay healthy to run very fast. Jakob's brothers have had inconsistent health. However, he runs his workout times with very little physical cost because of his unbelievable lactate levels at the start and finish of workouts and in treadmill tests, and his father does not have them doing much work at top speed at all, because of his training philosophy. Nor is he running very high miles. The kid has terrific biomechanics, and his improvement this past year as he physically matured and grew much taller than anticipated for the year was extraordinary, taking him right past almost all the 3:30s from 3:39 down to 3:31. His yearly drops cannot be as dramatic in the future, but you would expect at least two more years of improvement at the distance, which definitely means contemplating times as fast as 3:27-28 by the end of 2020. His ceiling at the 5000m is very high in my opinion. While he has shown an outstanding kick at both distances, he has not yet run anything fast at 800m or 400m. But he has shown the ability to maintain a very fast 5000m pace. Just the fact that he could kick at that pace in a 13:20 race at world juniors indicates how easy the pace was for him and the quality of his competitors at the end (especially Barega, whom he beat, later running 12:43, but also Zakayo and Waithaka) indicates that he was capable of running well under 13 already this year.
I would be very surprised if he is both healthy and does not break 12:50.
xcvxcvxcv wrote:
the year was extraordinary, taking him right past almost all the 3:30s from 3:39 down to 3:31.
Nothing to see here.
3:28
12:54
2-3 senior global championship medals
That's my guess
800m - 1:45.5
1500m - 3:29.5
Mile - 3:46.0
5000m - 12:55
1:43, 3:27, 3:45, and 12:48 are fantasies. He’ll undoubtedly be relegated to the minor medals in the Doha 1500 (Manangoi and Cheruiyot). 2020 will be a repeat.
He has an extremely good chance at gold in 2024 but a double is too much.
His best chances are in the steeple and the 5k.
Coevett wrote:
Dirtball wrote:
I'm surprised Coevett is the only other one on here besides OP who doesn't think Jakob will peak early. I think his dad's a smart enough coach that he wouldn't let that happen.
Yes, it's a good point. I'm sure his older brothers wont let that happen either.
People seem to think there's been loads of Jakob style teenage prodigies and they've all burnt out by 21 or whatever. There's never been a guy his age like this before. Jim Ryun comes close, but the idea he was burned out early is false. He was just mentally weak, and anyway would probably been double Olympic Champion if he hadn't had awful bad luck (mono, Mexico at altitude, tripped in Munich). He might also have gone on to win in Montreal if he hadn't chosen politics. He also didn't have the family support system of the Ingebrigtsens.
Alan Webb is another example, but Jakob is in a different league and again the situation is completely different.
Steve Cram was another teenage star, not achieving the times at quite such early ages, but given the decades between them, not entirely incomparable. Crammy didn't exactly have a shabby career, and with a bit more luck would probably be considered the GOAT.
Even if Jakob does peak at around 21 (which is still 3 years away - a long time for further improvements for a guy who has run an easy sub 3:31 and looked capable already of sub 13 minutes), just think how experienced he will be in major championships by the 2024 Olympics (when he'll still be only 23 or 24). A guy who can do the European double in consecutive days at age 17, looks to be a different sort of competitor entirely to Jim Ryun, or perhaps anyone we have ever seen before. Even if he 'only' gets to 3:27 or 12:50, he's going to be tough to beat indeed unless they secretly convert that WADA lab in Nairobi into an EPO production facility.
If anyone won't suffer the prodigy burnout it's going to be Jakob. The consistency in his family/support system is something the likes of an Alan Webb didn't have to keep him mentally grounded.
Who can say wrote:
I know Jakob is only like 17-18, and it's impossible to predict for sure how the future will go for him, but how will the rest of his career play out? What will his times be? Will he win World Championship/Olympic medals and if so how many? Honestly, I could see him reaching his PR's in the next 3 years or so considering that he's been training at a high level since he was 10, while his brothers didn't start focusing on running specifically until they were like 14 or 15. Filip and Henrik are both 25 and 27, way older than Jakob, but he's probably at or near their level of development as a runner.
My Predictions:
800m: 1:43
1500m: 3:27 at age 21-22
Mile: 3:45
5000m: 12:48
Wins Gold Medal in the 1500m at the World Championships and 2020 Olympics, then Double Olympic Champ in 2024 in 1500 and 5000m, along with 2-3 world championship medals in between.
Dream on!!!
800m: 1:44 flat
1500m: 3:28
Mile: 3:46.50
5000m: 12:54
Wins minor medals at a couple of WCs maybe one Olympic medal.
fbdfb wrote:
Who can say wrote:
I know Jakob is only like 17-18, and it's impossible to predict for sure how the future will go for him, but how will the rest of his career play out? What will his times be? Will he win World Championship/Olympic medals and if so how many? Honestly, I could see him reaching his PR's in the next 3 years or so considering that he's been training at a high level since he was 10, while his brothers didn't start focusing on running specifically until they were like 14 or 15. Filip and Henrik are both 25 and 27, way older than Jakob, but he's probably at or near their level of development as a runner.
My Predictions:
800m: 1:43
1500m: 3:27 at age 21-22
Mile: 3:45
5000m: 12:48
Wins Gold Medal in the 1500m at the World Championships and 2020 Olympics, then Double Olympic Champ in 2024 in 1500 and 5000m, along with 2-3 world championship medals in between.
Dream on!!!
800m: 1:45 flat
1500m: 3:28.50
Mile: 3:47.00
5000m: 12:56
Wins minor medals at a couple of WCs maybe one Olympic medal.
When he plateaus in the middle distances he can still do the 5'000 and 10'000 and later go to the roads up to the marathon.
Btw the Ingebrigtsens are perfectly built for middle distance running. Do you think they could also run world class times in the 'thon?
I belive they could go well under 2:10 with a solid build up.
Bad Wigins wrote:
That's right. Kid phenoms burn their candle at both ends. Peak as a teen, then leave the scene. Won't even beat Filip!
I think there have been some who were exceptional teenagers and ran well for a while after. I know a lot of people are sceptical of African teenagers. Maybe some were overage when supposedly running as juniors, but ones who kept running fast for decades (notably Geb and Kipchoge) surely must have been fast as teenagers.
Jim Ryun. Any others?
ToBeasy wrote:
When he plateaus in the middle distances he can still do the 5'000 and 10'000 and later go to the roads up to the marathon.
Btw the Ingebrigtsens are perfectly built for middle distance running. Do you think they could also run world class times in the 'thon?
I belive they could go well under 2:10 with a solid build up.
They have run 3:30.01, 3:31.18, 3:31.46 for 1500, which is a lot more competitive than 2:10 or even 2:07, The father says Jakob can run under 60:00 for the Half Marathon NOW, which indicates a 2:06-2:07 NOW, my guess is if/when they go to the Marathon, the Goal would be at least the European Record of 2:05.11.
Next Year will be Jakobs last as a Junior, he is 5th on the WJ list, the WJ Record is 3:28.81 which coincidentally is the same as the European Record, so that may be the goal or at least sub 3:30.
5th at 1500 World Junior.
douglas burke wrote:
ToBeasy wrote:
When he plateaus in the middle distances he can still do the 5'000 and 10'000 and later go to the roads up to the marathon.
Btw the Ingebrigtsens are perfectly built for middle distance running. Do you think they could also run world class times in the 'thon?
I belive they could go well under 2:10 with a solid build up.
They have run 3:30.01, 3:31.18, 3:31.46 for 1500, which is a lot more competitive than 2:10 or even 2:07, The father says Jakob can run under 60:00 for the Half Marathon NOW, which indicates a 2:06-2:07 NOW, my guess is if/when they go to the Marathon, the Goal would be at least the European Record of 2:05.11.
Next Year will be Jakobs last as a Junior, he is 5th on the WJ list, the WJ Record is 3:28.81 which coincidentally is the same as the European Record, so that may be the goal or at least sub 3:30.
Yeah I don’t think the European record will be 2:05:11 when Jakob moves up to the marathon.
seasoned ranker wrote:
douglas burke wrote:
They have run 3:30.01, 3:31.18, 3:31.46 for 1500, which is a lot more competitive than 2:10 or even 2:07, The father says Jakob can run under 60:00 for the Half Marathon NOW, which indicates a 2:06-2:07 NOW, my guess is if/when they go to the Marathon, the Goal would be at least the European Record of 2:05.11.
Next Year will be Jakobs last as a Junior, he is 5th on the WJ list, the WJ Record is 3:28.81 which coincidentally is the same as the European Record, so that may be the goal or at least sub 3:30.
Yeah I don’t think the European record will be 2:05:11 when Jakob moves up to the marathon.
I agree, Farah will probably better it in London.
seasoned ranker wrote:
douglas burke wrote:
They have run 3:30.01, 3:31.18, 3:31.46 for 1500, which is a lot more competitive than 2:10 or even 2:07, The father says Jakob can run under 60:00 for the Half Marathon NOW, which indicates a 2:06-2:07 NOW, my guess is if/when they go to the Marathon, the Goal would be at least the European Record of 2:05.11.
Next Year will be Jakobs last as a Junior, he is 5th on the WJ list, the WJ Record is 3:28.81 which coincidentally is the same as the European Record, so that may be the goal or at least sub 3:30.
Yeah I don’t think the European record will be 2:05:11 when Jakob moves up to the marathon.
Such irony. Everybody seems confident Jakob will either plateau at 18 or burn out completely by 21.
On the other hand, Mo Farah will be breaking the European Marathon Record next year at 36, and no doubt threatening to be the first man under 2 hours around the time he turns 40 (if 50 year old Kipchoge hasn't already done it).
Ooops, I hope I haven't upset Banana Bread again. I didn't mean to leave out Bekele. Of course he's going to be the first man under 2 hours. Hell, he could even pip Jakob to Tokyo gold in the 1500m if he decided to train for it, AND break El G's WR while doing it. The guy has barely started his career at 36.
787u87ty8u7 wrote:
xcvxcvxcv wrote:
the year was extraordinary, taking him right past almost all the 3:30s from 3:39 down to 3:31.
Nothing to see here.
Exactly. He is white so it's all fine.
Coevett wrote:
seasoned ranker wrote:
Yeah I don’t think the European record will be 2:05:11 when Jakob moves up to the marathon.
Such irony. Everybody seems confident Jakob will either plateau at 18 or burn out completely by 21.
On the other hand, Mo Farah will be breaking the European Marathon Record next year at 36, and no doubt threatening to be the first man under 2 hours around the time he turns 40 (if 50 year old Kipchoge hasn't already done it).
Ooops, I hope I haven't upset Banana Bread again. I didn't mean to leave out Bekele. Of course he's going to be the first man under 2 hours. Hell, he could even pip Jakob to Tokyo gold in the 1500m if he decided to train for it, AND break El G's WR while doing it. The guy has barely started his career at 36.
I never said that Jakob will plateau at 18, burn out by 21, that Mo will break the European Record next year, or break 2 hours in the marathon. Hyperbole and lying are for the weak.