What will Jakob Ingebrigtsen's career look like when all is said and done?

He'll be caught for doping and won't do anything with his career. So will his brothers....

I think he'd be happy with the above. It would certainly make him the GOAT in my opinion, given that it's highly unlikely nobody has ran those 1500 - 5000 times clean.

We can predict times, but the medals are based on a lot of variables and unknowns. For example, it might depend on how effective the new doping measures turn out to be in Kenya and Ethiopia.

I think he'll end up running faster than those times. People have been saying he was going to plateau and that he was simply a hot housed kid being pushed into a faster rate of development, for the last couple of seasons now.

I hope he breaks El G's records. I think there's a very good chance. He probably was capable of sub 3:30 at Monaco this year, at 17.

I don't know about Doha next year. I would certainly pick him for gold if Tim/Elijah/George are dirty and they have to throttle back next year with the WADA lab and such. Otherwise, I think it will be a bit too early and you'd expect Tim to be a bit faster still next year and also to finally get it right at a major championships. And the Doha heat will be tough on Europeans.

But I think whether or not Tim and the rest are clean or not, Jakob will probably be running close to the WR when Tokyo comes round and he'll be just too good for any of them.

It's quite conceivable he could end up winning three consecutive golds in 2020,2024, and 2028, which would clearly make him the GOAT even if he never breaks any of the EPO WRs.

Zero Olympic medals.

One WC medal.

Retires with 3:30.xx and 13:0x.

That's right. Kid phenoms burn their candle at both ends. Peak as a teen, then leave the scene. Won't even beat Filip!

Bad Wigins wrote:

That's right. Kid phenoms burn their candle at both ends. Peak as a teen, then leave the scene. Won't even beat Filip!

He'll certainly peak in the next two years. I certainly think he'll do sub 3:30 (Monaco) and sub 13 (if he tries). Don't know how many medals he'll win though.

See Lance Armstrong

Mary Cain ? Anyone?

I'm surprised Coevett is the only other one on here besides OP who doesn't think Jakob will peak early. I think his dad's a smart enough coach that he wouldn't let that happen.

Dirtball wrote:

I'm surprised Coevett is the only other one on here besides OP who doesn't think Jakob will peak early. I think his dad's a smart enough coach that he wouldn't let that happen.

Yes, it's a good point. I'm sure his older brothers wont let that happen either.

People seem to think there's been loads of Jakob style teenage prodigies and they've all burnt out by 21 or whatever. There's never been a guy his age like this before. Jim Ryun comes close, but the idea he was burned out early is false. He was just mentally weak, and anyway would probably been double Olympic Champion if he hadn't had awful bad luck (mono, Mexico at altitude, tripped in Munich). He might also have gone on to win in Montreal if he hadn't chosen politics. He also didn't have the family support system of the Ingebrigtsens.

Alan Webb is another example, but Jakob is in a different league and again the situation is completely different.

Steve Cram was another teenage star, not achieving the times at quite such early ages, but given the decades between them, not entirely incomparable. Crammy didn't exactly have a shabby career, and with a bit more luck would probably be considered the GOAT.

Even if Jakob does peak at around 21 (which is still 3 years away - a long time for further improvements for a guy who has run an easy sub 3:31 and looked capable already of sub 13 minutes), just think how experienced he will be in major championships by the 2024 Olympics (when he'll still be only 23 or 24). A guy who can do the European double in consecutive days at age 17, looks to be a different sort of competitor entirely to Jim Ryun, or perhaps anyone we have ever seen before. Even if he 'only' gets to 3:27 or 12:50, he's going to be tough to beat indeed unless they secretly convert that WADA lab in Nairobi into an EPO production facility.

its impossible to say,or predict.i think hes gonna crash and burn.way too much too soon,and too much development,too early.ill be very suprised if hes still running in his early 20s.he could go on and have an amazing career,but its not likely.hes more likely to burn out from over training,injury,or drug use.i dont doubt his father is a good coach,but even then that can only take you so far.

jeff tallon wrote:

its impossible to say,or predict.i think hes gonna crash and burn.way too much too soon,and too much development,too early.ill be very suprised if hes still running in his early 20s.he could go on and have an amazing career,but its not likely.hes more likely to burn out from over training,injury,or drug use.i dont doubt his father is a good coach,but even then that can only take you so far.

This

Coevett wrote:

It's quite conceivable he could end up winning three consecutive golds in 2020,2024, and 2028, which would clearly make him the GOAT even if he never breaks any of the EPO WRs.

Will you change your handle to Coevettsen then?

Banana Bread wrote:

jeff tallon wrote:

its impossible to say,or predict.i think hes gonna crash and burn.way too much too soon,and too much development,too early.ill be very suprised if hes still running in his early 20s.he could go on and have an amazing career,but its not likely.hes more likely to burn out from over training,injury,or drug use.i dont doubt his father is a good coach,but even then that can only take you so far.

This

Says the guy who worships the Epiopian GOAT.

kokokokokokokokokok wrote:

Coevett wrote:

It's quite conceivable he could end up winning three consecutive golds in 2020,2024, and 2028, which would clearly make him the GOAT even if he never breaks any of the EPO WRs.

Will you change your handle to Coevettsen then?

Better than that - I will change my real name by deed poll to Jakob Coevett.

jeff tallon wrote:

its impossible to say,or predict.i think hes gonna crash and burn.way too much too soon,and too much development,too early.ill be very suprised if hes still running in his early 20s.he could go on and have an amazing career,but its not likely.hes more likely to burn out from over training,injury,or drug use.i dont doubt his father is a good coach,but even then that can only take you so far.

I've read conflicting things about his early development. I read an interview recently where it was said his father didn't let him train seriously with the older brothers until 13 or 14.

How do you know he's been training too much, too soon? Because he's running astonishing times for his age?

Steve Cram reached an Olympic final at 18. Steve Ovett was competing at a high standard in the sprints and cross country at a schoolboy level in the same years. He was even representing his club in the high jump and long jump. And he won 800m silver at the European Championships just a little older than Jakob. Neither of these two burnt out in their early twenties, and they didn't have the family that Jakob does. Maybe teen stars getting burnt out is just an American thing?

Banana Bread wrote:

jeff tallon wrote:

its impossible to say,or predict.i think hes gonna crash and burn.way too much too soon,and too much development,too early.ill be very suprised if hes still running in his early 20s.he could go on and have an amazing career,but its not likely.hes more likely to burn out from over training,injury,or drug use.i dont doubt his father is a good coach,but even then that can only take you so far.

This

I'm an evil comic book racist because I put the domination of East Africans down to doping, something which is becoming more apparent and blatantly obvious each year (at least outside this forum).

Jakob runs fast for a white guy and could end up running faster than even the likes of Bekele. Therefore, must be doping.

Yeah, I'm the racist.

Actually, he already has ran faster than Bekele did at 1500 - and at age 17.

No wonder you hate him.

olimpic gold in 5000, 10000

end in 1.59 in marathon

Coevett wrote:

Banana Bread wrote:

This

I'm an evil comic book racist because I put the domination of East Africans down to doping, something which is becoming more apparent and blatantly obvious each year (at least outside this forum).

Jakob runs fast for a white guy and could end up running faster than even the likes of Bekele. Therefore, must be doping.

Yeah, I'm the racist.

This made me laugh. I enjoy been entertained here. Maybe we should meet for coffee someday and you can tell me more jokes.