Tuohy will NOT win NXN

just as a point of reference, what time do you think Tuohy would do on the VCP 5 K? Correct me if I am wrong, but is not the 5 K the same as the 4 K except a flat 1 K added on that the start? Maybe 13:25 + 3:15 = 16:40?

Tuohy@VCP wrote:

just as a point of reference, what time do you think Tuohy would do on the VCP 5 K? Correct me if I am wrong, but is not the 5 K the same as the 4 K except a flat 1 K added on that the start? Maybe 13:25 + 3:15 = 16:40?

In a perfect scenario, in a championship race, where she stepped it up a notch over her best, I think she's around 16:20 on the Van Cortland Park 5k.

Also just checked the course record.

16:46, Schiro, '85.

That makes 16:20 seem even righter.

Ok so in a fresh 5000m on the track. You think Tuohy would beat Cain? In xc I'd give it to Tuohy but on a track Cain seems way stronger.

Tuohy running healthy at 5k is beat by no female, Cain included. Cain was never comfortable at 5k -- 1,500 was her best race. Tuohy is in a class by herself at this point. She'll win NXR easily even if she's not close to 100%.

so given that, the recent FL time by Masciarelli is good but not really competitive with Tuohy I guess. 16:20 was also what Tuohy ran in NJ this year, right? So that course is comparable to VCP?

Tuohy the goat no way she loses. She would have beat the majority of boys at every Nike and Foot Locker regional championship race. Ran a 15:37 5000m indoor.

westsouthrunner wrote:

Ok so in a fresh 5000m on the track. You think Tuohy would beat Cain? In xc I'd give it to Tuohy but on a track Cain seems way stronger.

Yes, absolutely. Theoretically, an uninjured Tuohy (basically her a month ago) vs Mary Cain at her prime in HS and I would still give it to Tuohy for the 5000m.

Cain's XC times, even on relatively flat courses, weren't particularly impressive compared to her 1500m/mile times. Her range over Tuohy would range up to about the 2 mile. I'd put them even at 2 mile. From then on, Tuohy all the way.

That being said, does this mean Tuohy will undoubtedly win NXN? IMO, no. Her injury leaves many people questioning her fitness.

westsouthrunner wrote:

Ok so in a fresh 5000m on the track. You think Tuohy would beat Cain? In xc I'd give it to Tuohy but on a track Cain seems way stronger.

One more thing: Tuohy is faster this year than last year. And last year, she ran 42 seconds faster than Cain did at 2.5 miles.

Ok, I'm done for the night!

Dwightarm wrote:

Dwightarm wrote:

Chill out. Facts are facts, America.

But I guess what I posted was kinda obvious so I do see your point. My bad.

Lol. This guy is reposting as other people to soothe his own ego. Dude, you’re pathetic. But kudos: I won’t be posting under this name anymore.

Tuohy@VCP wrote:

so given that, the recent FL time by Masciarelli is good but not really competitive with Tuohy I guess. 16:20 was also what Tuohy ran in NJ this year, right? So that course is comparable to VCP?

Sydney Masciarelli's race at VCP was exceptional, and she could certainly step up and become a real pain in the neck for Tuohy between now and the end of 2020.

But right now...no, she's not competitive with Tuohy.

I don't know enough about the NJ course to compare the two, but I know Bowdoin Park real well, and the VCP 5k tends to run about 10 seconds faster than Bowdoin, and I'm 100% convinced she's sub 16:30 at Bowdoin on a good day.

There's more to it than that, but that certainly plays into my 16:20 projection.

Completely gratuitous and irrelevant Tuohy observation...

She also looks like she could walk over to the shot put circle, pick up the ball and go 35' from a stand, just for fun.

She would absolutely kick Phantasy Star's azz in a fistfight.

Deadstream wrote:

Sydney Masciarelli's race at VCP was exceptional, and she could certainly step up and become a real pain in the neck for Tuohy between now and the end of 2020.

Sadly, I can't find too many results for Masciarelli out there. She's a bit of an anomaly, focusing on other sports instead. That seems to benefit runners who only haphazardly focus on running. Weren't Galen Rupp, Lukas Verzbicas, and Allie Ostrander the same?

I am not putting her as a favorite to win. I was adding a name to the list of runners that at one time, people were predicting to be the best of all time. Grace Ping was certainly in that category 3 years ago in 7th grade. It merely makes the point that we need to wait a year or 2 to see if Tuohy goes the way of Cain, or Houlihan or Schweizer. Both of those success stories are from Iowa by the way.

Mn runners are coming for you wrote:

I am not putting her as a favorite to win. I was adding a name to the list of runners that at one time, people were predicting to be the best of all time.

I think they’re saying that Tuohy isn’t on the list of runners predicted to be GOAT, she already is.

Personally I’d like to see her take a crack at either Mt SAC or Balboa Park so I know how she stacks up against those legendary times.

Mn runners are coming for you wrote:

I am not putting her as a favorite to win. I was adding a name to the list of runners that at one time, people were predicting to be the best of all time. Grace Ping was certainly in that category 3 years ago in 7th grade. It merely makes the point that we need to wait a year or 2 to see if Tuohy goes the way of Cain, or Houlihan or Schweizer. Both of those success stories are from Iowa by the way.

Ping has a good shot at a top 10 but puberty was a GOAT buster.

Doesn't Katelyn have some slow brothers? That is usually an indication of future success for a female.

Tuohy Family wrote:

Doesn't Katelyn have some slow brothers? That is usually an indication of future success for a female.

Very solid 4:20/9:20 kid who graduated last year and runs for Fordham University now.

There is no Tuohy on the roster.