I will say that there is a possibility that she loses. Aside from the fact that it's cross country and that upsets can happen more often in cross country compared to track. The two only two ways she could lose is if she is out of shape or she runs a bad race strategy. Obviously she is not out of shape. She broke multiple high school record last year and seems to have carried that fitness over to cross country, as throughout the season she has broken multiple course record, including her own. So her fitness is not in question, in fact I would argue she is in better shape than Covert. The only other way she could lose this is if she just botches the race plan. Correct me if I'm wrong but she hasn't really had a race where she was challenged this season. This will obviously be the first time that she has actually had to RACE in a long time, probably over a year if you look at track. Racing in a pack, or with someone clinging onto her, introduces a new type of stress that she probably hasn't been exposed to in a quite a long time. How she handles this stress will determine the race result. If she freaks out and goes out to hard and dies in the last 800/1000, Covert will reel her in, she is fit enough to do that. If she is smart, relaxed, confident, and under control then she can either sit with the pack and leave them in the dust the last mile of the race or just go out from the gun and take the win that way. The point being anything can happen, but its going to come down to stress management for both of those girls. For the sake of entertainment I hope she sticks with the pack for a while.
Should be a good race! Best of luck to everyone competing