Major stock crash imminent

Gravy wrote:

Before the end of the year.

l think the U.S. markets are being dragged down by the U.S.-China trade war/tariffs, the almost daily announcements of threatened investigations by incoming U.S. House Chairmen (leading to political chaos & legislative inaction) and the Fed raising interest rates (taking away the low interest ‘punchbowl’). If any one of these things change, I think we can see a big rally.

I would expect a ~20% correction from the highs in this environment, but it’s holiday season and we just bounced off significant S&P weekly support level today.

If you can predict a crash and other major market movement accurately, that’s impressive. I’m sticking to shorter term trades until there’s a bit less chaos.

Mark’s Thoughts wrote:

Gravy wrote:

Before the end of the year.

l think the U.S. markets are being dragged down by the U.S.-China trade war/tariffs, the almost daily announcements of threatened investigations by incoming U.S. House Chairmen (leading to political chaos & legislative inaction) and the Fed raising interest rates (taking away the low interest ‘punchbowl’). If any one of these things change, I think we can see a big rally.

I would expect a ~20% correction from the highs in this environment, but it’s holiday season and we just bounced off significant S&P weekly support level today.

If you can predict a crash and other major market movement accurately, that’s impressive. I’m sticking to shorter term trades until there’s a bit less chaos.

WTF?...a ~20% correction?!? ?

A lot of people are going to lose a lot of dough with a scarnio like that. Think of all the people with company 401(k)s, IRAs, 457s, etc. People aren't going to put with losing 20% of their hard-earned dough because of the Wallstreet cartel & stupid Fed policies. ?

The first thing that needs to be done is for the Fed to bring interest rates back down to zero (0). People aren't buying houses like they use to because of these damn high interest rates! Dropping interest rates and rescind those damn tariffs would be a good start to get America back on track again!

On the other hand ridiculously low interest rates have lesd to spdculation in real estate, stocks and bonds while depriving retiees an adequate return on safe investments. Interst rates need to normalize.

Gasser

I assume you are joking...but if not your thoughts are utterly absurd.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

On the other hand ridiculously low interest rates have lesd to spdculation in real estate, stocks and bonds while depriving retiees an adequate return on safe investments. Interst rates need to normalize.

That is how trust fund kids talk who clip bond coupons with over ten million dollars; that is how seventy plus year olds talk who clip bond coupons with over ten million dollars. Am I right to guess you are in the second group?

that's how ... wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

On the other hand ridiculously low interest rates have lesd to spdculation in real estate, stocks and bonds while depriving retiees an adequate return on safe investments. Interst rates need to normalize.

That is how trust fund kids talk who clip bond coupons with over ten million dollars; that is how seventy plus year olds talk who clip bond coupons with over ten million dollars. Am I right to guess you are in the second group?

That is the thought process of a muppet that believes that central bank manipulation actually adds lasting value to markets. Am I right to guess your investments have taken a big hit this month? Get ready for more.

I think we drop to 22500-23500 by the end of 2019. No reason.

Alan

No reason the Dow doesn’t drop to under 10,000 in that same time frame.

Igy

Regarding investments, I look at markets and make one month to five year plans. I'll be ok if O.F.F. RATE and DISCOUNT RATE ARE 0.5%, 2.5%, 5% or 10%. As I stated to you previously, those with over ten million in investment accounts usually like to keep their money, tolerate little risk of principle and want to utilize a bond strategy. Rising interest rates are intended to slow growth a little or a lot. The majority of citizens of the world do better in low interest rate environments. Environments which encourage growth.

that's how ... wrote:

Regarding investments, I look at markets and make one month to five year plans. I'll be ok if O.F.F. RATE and DISCOUNT RATE ARE 0.5%, 2.5%, 5% or 10%. As I stated to you previously, those with over ten million in investment accounts usually like to keep their money, tolerate little risk of principle and want to utilize a bond strategy. Rising interest rates are intended to slow growth a little or a lot. The majority of citizens of the world do better in low interest rate environments. Environments which encourage growth.

That is nonsense. Interest rates should be set by the market.

Gravy wrote:

Before the end of the year.

You called it. Look at NVIDIA.

Um, maybe not. It went from 250s on Oct 8 to 130s today. The crash in tech already happened. Total disaster.

Stocks bounced today, but looks like return of the so-called PPT. Volume in these stock was very small on the recovery.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

that's how ... wrote:

Regarding investments, I look at markets and make one month to five year plans. I'll be ok if O.F.F. RATE and DISCOUNT RATE ARE 0.5%, 2.5%, 5% or 10%. As I stated to you previously, those with over ten million in investment accounts usually like to keep their money, tolerate little risk of principle and want to utilize a bond strategy. Rising interest rates are intended to slow growth a little or a lot. The majority of citizens of the world do better in low interest rate environments. Environments which encourage growth.

That is nonsense. Interest rates should be set by the market.

What is nonsense? You do know US Federal Reserve sets interest rate targets, overnight fed fund rate and discount rate. US Federal Reserve works with member banks. You do know this don't you? Do you believe there should be no central banks? That is a separate discussion.

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

On the other hand ridiculously low interest rates have lesd to spdculation in real estate, stocks and bonds while depriving retiees an adequate return on safe investments. Interst rates need to normalize.

Why didn’t those retirees invest in “real estate, stocks and bonds?”

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

No reason the Dow doesn’t drop to under 10,000 in that same time frame.

Igy

C'mon man...under 10,000? ?

Do you realize the financial Armageddon that would create? People's company 401(k)s annihilated! Massive loss of dough for many. Probably riots on the streets, civil unrest, alcholism rates exploding, etc. - an ensuing Depression. Then many people would want to tar & feather Trump and run him out of office.

Considering the repercussions of the market crashing like that, I don't see Fed Reserve & the Government letting that happen. The Fed Reserve is God like - they can create money out of thin air by just adding zeros on a computer. They can create Trillions out of nothing and pump it all back into the economy and buy their way out of any mess. Nothing is beyond their means. Heck, they could probably cure a rainy day.

This isn't the 20th century and American is the modern day Roman Empire. ?American runs the financial show (nothing new there). It's about $$$ - which is just zeros in a computer (money is not back by gold and is basically worthless). The Fed Reserve can add or delete zeros at will.

And 2008 showed us what the power to just print money out of thin air can do to help not one but TWO failing industries. What’s the long term generational affect? Is there one? I’ve been hearing about the ills of government overspending my entire life. What’s the end game?

Alan

Thank goodness I stocked up on enough running apparel to last a decade.

that's how ... wrote:

Ghost of Igloi wrote:

That is nonsense. Interest rates should be set by the market.

What is nonsense? You do know US Federal Reserve sets interest rate targets, overnight fed fund rate and discount rate. US Federal Reserve works with member banks. You do know this don't you? Do you believe there should be no central banks? That is a separate discussion.

Nonsense is QE, the process where the Federal Reserve moved bonds issued by the Treasury to their balance sheet to further distort interest rates. That balance sheet is $4.25 Trillion currently. The same process was followed by the ECB, the Japanese and Chinese Central Banks. This process along with lower their respective equivalent of the Fed Funds Rate created an environment for the first time in 4,500 years of financial history that there were negative interest rates. So any rational person would see this as nonsense. The malinvestment will be reconciled over the coming years. You will learn how nonsensical it really was, along with tens of millions of others. You won’t be alone unfortunately.

The Dow was 6,600 in March 2009 and 11,000 October 2011. Since then the markets have thrived on plentiful cheap money. Now if you believe that market manipulation has no end game, sure the concept of Dow 10,000 sounds ridiculous. But in my view what is ridiculous is companies that have no profits have become cult stocks or the foolishness of the cryptocurrency craze. It is the spirit of the times which will have a rationalization at some point. Concepts that have no foundation in a free market will adjust to normal environment that will end with a greater than 50% haircut to global stocks. We are just getting started.

My bitcoin stocks have already crashed and I'm hoping it is reversed(peaks and troughs). They are less then a quarter worth of what they were when I got them when they were pretty much as expensive as they could be. Most of my savings were in them($2,500), so I've literally lost $2k now. Can anyone advise me on any stock tips? Should I short sell now or hold out and hopefully they rocket up like people told me they would? I watched the film Limitless last year when bitcoin was going crazy(I'm not sure if I should have watched it) and I wanted to become a big trader like de Niro in that film or a mini Warren Buffet. I guess we all lose money and can struggle and then suddenly our luck turns.