Major stock crash imminent

How major?

Why?

Won't Trump prevent it?

Gravy wrote:

Before the end of the year.

Didn't know imminent lasted that long.

Are you sure? wrote:

How major?

Why?

Won't Trump prevent it?

You have to remember that he doesnt care about what is best for the country, only what is good for himself and his popularity. If the markets crash now he can say: "look, I told you what would happen if you let the dems take the house", and his supporters would soak it up and that's all you would hear from Fox News and the rest of the conservative media for the next year.

In reality if he started to relax the tariffs and returned to a more globalized/free trade outlook markets would recover somewhat. He only has so much power however, part of the reason for the recent decline is how quickly the fed is raising rates coupled with the deficit that once again balooned under irresponsible congressional (and presidential) leadership for the last 2 years.

Time to cash out and put it all into crypto currency.

So much for Trump's business 'genius.' That TrumpCONomy 'rocket fuel' he promised in his tax giveaway for the rich ended up lumps of coal.

The Fed lowers rates when the market tanks, Wall Street controls the Fed.

Trump is already planting the seed to blame the fed if the market goes down.

He will never admit the tariffs have anything to do with the decline or that the tax plan was a sugar high that pushed some tech companies to have unreasonable high multiples

Why would I care unless I’m looking to sell soon?

You already have a thread on this called "Down Goes the Dow" or something like that, please just post there.

afasdfasdf wrote:

You already have a thread on this called "Down Goes the Dow" or something like that, please just post there.

Is there an all inclusive "Running" thread?

On the consumer side, we are seeing demand for autos and tech gadgets (primarily smart phones) crest and begin to decline. There is also a lot of volatility in the social media companies over the conflict between revenue generating activity and the regulatory and popular push back over privacy/hacking and malicious content. Fed interest rate moves are starting to deflate some housing markets. But that is actually a good thing in the long run as the low interest rates were not sustainable and we are starting to see a return to some bad subprime lending practices. I think the Christmas shopping season in the US will be robust and will fend off the current set of headwinds. The real challenge next year will be whether the world economy will come back to life or move in a negative direction. China is feeling the affects of the tariffs. The most serious of which will go into effect in Jan of 2019. The Brexit deal is hanging on by a thread with Spain threatening to veto the deal if Gibraltar is included. If there is no trade deal with China and Brexit fails so that the UK crashes out of the EU, 2019 will see a bear market and probably a recession in the US. But I do not see a 2008 style crash coming. Too much of the current economy is built on solid ground. The economy in 2007-08 was built on sand with a large portion of economic growth coming from housing.

Gravy wrote:

Before the end of the year.

Good guess. Nothing with the stock market is guaranteed though.

The Dow right now is at 24,967; down from its high of 26,952, so we have already dropped a lot lately...but there could be more to come.

So, what to do?

Well, unless you are within 5 years of retiring, nothing. If you ARE within 5 years of retiring, then you COULD decide to move stuff to more conservative vehicles (MMA, CDs, only blue chip stocks or bonds, or even cash if you are very close to retiring), stop putting money in the markets and ONLY into conservative vehicles, or do nothing. I propose doing nothing, but there are caveats to that...

If you do NOTHING (which is what I will do), then you MUST have at least one of the following in place:

1) The will to work longer than 5 more years if the market doesn't recover quickly.

2) You are within the time frame in which you had planned to take social security, and that social security will allow you to pay your bills for at least 3 years while you let the stock market recover...for example, you are 62 and you planned to take SS at age 65. So, you continue to work for 3 more years and continue to put money into your retirement accounts as always, and then you retire at 65 and take social security only to pay the bills, but you leave your stock accounts alone so they can recover without any withdrawals.

3) You have three YEARS of expenses saved up in a liquid account (this is my situation).

4) You are just so wealthy that it doesn't matter what you do.

I agree with Flagpole here 100%. I'm planning to retire at the end of next year but am sitting tight on a portfolio that is 85% equities. I'll be collecting a pension and have 3 years of cash (CD's, Money Markets) set aside to complement the pension in case the market goes far south.

There are more than a few analysts who actually believe the market goes heavily bull next year - S&P to 3,100. One thing for sure, nobody has a crystal ball and "time in the market" beats "timing the market".

You are wise, brother. Enjoy that retirement!

afasdfasdf wrote:

You already have a thread on this called "Down Goes the Dow" or something like that, please just post there.

Isn't that where the guru Igy where posts 24/7? ?

Planning on retirement next year and you're in 85% equities? Wow!....you could lose your shirt if economist Harry Dent is right:

I'm running for cover! wrote:

Flag too wrote:

I agree with Flagpole here 100%. I'm planning to retire at the end of next year but am sitting tight on a portfolio that is 85% equities. I'll be collecting a pension and have 3 years of cash (CD's, Money Markets) set aside to complement the pension in case the market goes far south.

There are more than a few analysts who actually believe the market goes heavily bull next year - S&P to 3,100. One thing for sure, nobody has a crystal ball and "time in the market" beats "timing the market".

Planning on retirement next year and you're in 85% equities? Wow!....you could lose your shirt if economist Harry Dent is right:

https://youtu.be/oqmM_PjWcNg

Meh...He's covered...he's got a pension AND 3 years of expenses saved up. He can last AT LEAST 5 years on that if not more, and by then, even if the market hasn't recovered (unlikely), it is just that many more years fewer that he will be taking money from his retirement accounts. You only lose your shirt if you withdraw when stuff is low...he's in a great position to not have to do that.

I don't care for that thread wrote:

afasdfasdf wrote:

You already have a thread on this called "Down Goes the Dow" or something like that, please just post there.

Isn't that where the guru Igy where posts 24/7? ?

So says the guy that follows Igy around LRC. ?

You are wrong. The market won't move that much between Thanksgiving and Christmas. Then people realize they need to clean things up before the tax year window closes. Probably won't tank until April.

Holy crap, I actually agree with Precious Roy and Flagpole on this one.