Can I run a sub 3 hour marathon?

6:45-6:50 pace is starting to feel pretty doable. When I get down to 6:30 or lower it doesn’t feel sustainable

Yes, I’m like 95% sure I can do this.

18:00

37:15

1:25:00

are the general yardsticks I use for Sub 3 shape. Cal int'l is fast so you don't need much more than that.. And for stronger/not faster runners being say 1:03/4 for a 10 mile and/or 1:26 or so for a 1/2 could work.

Can you? Sure it seems you have the ability. But based on your provided times, and only doing 55 miles a week my answer is no.

you need to run at least 1:22 1/2 before you can run sub 3hrs...good luck

Sorry I missed the fact that your race is in a few weeks! Maybe some of the advice will be useful for the future instead. For now you just have to believe you can do it, prepare well (study the course), have a good fueling strategy, have a pacing plan and hope for perfect conditions.

The main thing is to talk your mind into being able to do it. Be realistic about your starting pace - you'll need to run fairly even splits because anything quicker will be uncomfortable and you're more likely to blow up. Mentally that's tougher in a way because you know you don't have time in the bag. That last hour is really tough to keep the pace going but willpower can get you through it if you focus hard, don't run out of fuel and run a great race.

And if you don't quite make it I'm sure you will in the spring with a few tweaks.

Best of luck!

Al

I would be cautious with those that say they ran a sub 3 with "only a 1:2X" half. My experience has found that those people are the exception, and not the norm. This can be for a variety of reasons, though. How does your 55-60 mpw average compare to what you've done in the past? How do these workouts compare to those you've done in marathon training in the past?

Either way, please keep us updated after the race, even if by chance it doesn't go well. It provides helpful baseline information for those that might come later looking for more data points in their quest for a sub 3.

if you did better training maybe, if you did correct training , definitely.

Lot of pessimists on the site. With your times and mileage, you have a great shot 80% if you run the race correctly. Make sure you go out around 7 minute pace the first 3 miles and between 129-130 half.

Also, you do have a little more speed than endurance so that makes it very easy to go out too fast. Remember there is only 8 to 10 seconds per mile difference between your potential at 18 miles and 26.2 miles. If you start running 6:40s, (even though it will feel easy) you probably won't be able to hold on.

Just for reference:

I had a 3:00 goal. When I reached it I did a 2:58, but shortly after ran 36:18 10k. The 2:58 was well paced - 1:30 at the halfway point. The 36:18 was not well paced, 17:00 at the 5K mark.

My mileage was 55 -70 miles/wk, but it was all done during about a year of consistent training when I was 30.

My first and only other marathon was a DNF, but I was at 1:24 halfway. Then I started increasing my long run distances each weekend - up to as high as 30 miles. I could never have finished in sub-3:00 without those because I think I’m more of a 400/800 type runner.

Jim Bob a Rooney wrote:

18:00

37:15

1:25:00

are the general yardsticks I use for Sub 3 shape. Cal int'l is fast so you don't need much more than that.. And for stronger/not faster runners being say 1:03/4 for a 10 mile and/or 1:26 or so for a 1/2 could work.

Yep, I did it.

With 38:30 10K and 1:26:00 half, I ran 2:59:30 full, mostly on long slow trail ultra training miles with some 5M, 10K and halfs thrown in for some speed and race training;)

RunningRules wrote:

Progression 1 - 10 mins @ Marathon pace, 10 mins @ HM pace, 10 mins @ 10k pace, 10mins @ 5k pace

Progression 2 - 20 mins @ Marathon pace, 45 mins @ HM pace, 15 mins @ 10k pace

Fartlek 1 - 15 x 1min @ 5k pace, 1min @ Marathon pace

Fartlek 2 - 8 x 4min @ 5k pace, 2min @ Marathon pace

Long run 1 - Run the last 4 miles @ HM pace

Long run 2 - Run all at marathon pace (2 or 3 weeks out)

This is a terrible schedule. The only person who will improve off a schedule like this is someone who has had a very training history and those people will literally improve off anything that addss volume or intensity but they won't be improving for long.

All of these workouts are almost races.

Progression 2 involves an hour of faster than half marathon pace running after 20 minutes of marathon pace. 15 minutes of 10k pace after an hour of hard running?

Fartlek 2 is 32 minutes of 5k pace running, over 8k at 5k pace and I pray to the lord that the 2 minute at marathon pace isn't done between reps?

Long run 2 is a full fu*cking long run at marathon pace 2 or 3 weeks before the race untapered.

Giving this kind of advice is irresponsible, anyone that can do this kind of workouts is overtraining and underperforming and you should keep them to yourself as it's irresponisible and incompetent advice.

Run fast for 3 hrs. Easy.

I'm glad someone else pointed this out.

I trained at 55-60 miles per week last year for the Austin Marathon, but I was over trained and beat up. This time around, I feel great and noticed recovery is happening faster, plus I ran a 21 mile workout faster than I ever have before.

This gives me hope. If you translate my 10 miler to a half, it would be 1:26. And I know I could run a 1:26, just havnt had the opportunity this training cycle. I have a 5k thanksgiving day (10 days before the race), so this might be a good indicator as well

Good point. You are right, 6:40s will most likely feel easy considering that’s what I ran during my long run workout (and it felt easier then too). I do plan to start around 7 flat the first mile or two, and then take it down to 6:50s. Hopefully by mile 20/22 I will have it in me to bring it down a bit more

Thanks for the positivity! I will start off at 7 most likely. I do have a coach and am sitting down with him next week to get a race plan, but we has a hundred other athletes so I’m here to get some extra opinions