YMMV wrote:
1) be in 12:37 or 26:18 shape
2) a)run 12:37 or 26:18 from the front
b) throw in surges throughout the race and hope for the best
So, first off you have to be in better shape than Mo. If you're not, he holds every card. There is no answer. The best option then is just to sit and follow as efficiently as possible, make the race slower (more unpredictable) and hope that you have some amazing lucky day in the final 200m.
IF you are fitter, then you have more options.
Surges are dumb overall, unless you're significantly better and think you can actually crack the guy. If you're not significantly better, Mo just follows the surge, expending less energy in the draft and is fine. You wasted more energy. Each surge you do, that's repeated over and over. Moreover, surges increases the speed, thus the power needed to overcome wind resistance, and further increase the effect of the draft. If you're strong enough to surge Mo away, you're strong enough to just drop him with a straight pace right from the gun. The only benefit here is if you can mentally crack him by seeing effortless and controlled on the surges.
The only other thing you could do is a true attack like in cycling. Literal sprint, get a gap, be in PR shape and hold it. Hope the other guys won't do the work to close you down and instead slow down deciding who wants to run 12:50 pace that you're trying to run. If you're in close to Mo's shape, there is a small chance this can work, especially if there is infighting. If you're not in at least 12:45-12:50 shape...this has zero chance of ever working. The sprint will take something out of you and slow you down overall. If you're in 12:55 shape and try that you're going to run 13:10 or worse and have guys breathing down your neck.
The best, and only consistent option is just to be fitter than Mo. Come bring sub 12:40 or sub 26:20 game to town and drop him. Still might not be enough though. Drafting, on a good day, I think Mo could follow Bekele around to both of those times.