the maths wrote:
Like I said, she's off the charts. To hold her to a 1.11 multiple of guys' times is clearly too conservative.
Before she's done, she might be more like 1.07, or something absurd like that.
You somewhat mix up the logic of the conversion factor in some of the things you say.
Rather than parse it all, I'll point out that the 1.11 factor applied to the boys' HS records at 1 mile, 2 mile and 5000m yields marks of 4:19, 9:25 and 15:06 for girls.
Let's see Tuohy approach those times before we say that the factor is too conservative in comparing her to "the guys".
The 1.07 you hypothesize yields 4:09 mile, 9:04 two mile and 14:34 5000m. Um, no.
1. The baseline *you* used was Ches. That's what we were talking about. As *you* pointed out, she's already significantly *faster* than 1.11 x *his* times, and still seems like she might have lots of room left for improvement. (Especially since one of those races, where she's *already* well ahead of that benchmark, was one where she clearly wasn't that close to all-out.)
2. Bringing mile-times on the track into it is kinda stupid, since that's not at all what we're talking about, and nobody thinks she's anywhere near as good at that as she is on the x-c course (at least so far).
3. Again, by the benchmark *you* used, she already looks to be somewhere around 1.10 x those times, and is clearly still getting better, and will probably run at least some of those courses again next year.
Will she be still better next year than this year? No one knows. But there's certainly a pretty good shot.
Changing those 1.1's to 1.07's would mean dropping another 25-30 seconds, I guess.
Maybe that was a little strong. Could she drop another 15, or maybe even 20? Yep, she might.
Maybe I should've said 1.08, or 1.09, to be more conservative.
The more I think about it, she *does* have a chance to push 16, if she really wants to go for it, at Balboa. (Even though I guess you've pretty much 'informed' us that it's 'mathematically impossible.')
We'll see.
So far, everyone who's doubted her, put limits on her, and told us what she *can't* do, has looked pretty stupid.