Katelyn Tuohy is racing at Holmdel Park NJ tomorrow. If she breaks 16:00 it will be the greatest HS achievement ever.

the maths wrote:

The 1.11 rule for male/female conversion is your friend.

Using Cheserek's CR as baseline, the rule would have predicted 16:31 for KT today. She beat it by ten seconds; excellent, but not startling.

Now take a realistic assessment of Cheserek's 5000m track fitness when he set that CR and apply 1.11.

13:53 x 1.11 = 15:25.

I'd give her that, and good for her.

So maybe sub 16 on that course is actually not impossible for a HS girl. Tuohy is simply breaking down barriers

Remember, Jakob ran 13:17 in HS

She ran 15:37 last year indoors. It’s safe to assume she can run at least 12 seconds faster. Mostikelu more than that. She seems to be well coached and had a thirst for glory and records. So exciting.

webby wrote:

I predict that this was a more impressive race than the one that LRC has a ticker running for.

I'm going make another bold post:

Unless Rupp runs under 2:06 tomorrow or Gwen runs under 2:23, KT has the performance of the weekend AND one of the races of the year, high school through pros.

PhantomRunnerKT wrote:

16:27

Nice prediction mate, you came awfully close! What time will I run in New York this November. If you get that close, I'll pay your way the following year;)

hart crane wrote:

webby wrote:

I predict that this was a more impressive race than the one that LRC has a ticker running for.

I'm going make another bold post:

Unless Rupp runs under 2:06 tomorrow or Gwen runs under 2:23, KT has the performance of the weekend AND one of the races of the year, high school through pros.

KT? Call her by her name, she's just a high school runner, let's not turn this into madness!

Vyvygggy wrote:

What if your name is Vedang Lad, a senior. He came 2nd in the B race in 16:18 and he has a 9:11 PB at 3200. He is probably thinking about scholarship, maybe making FL Nationals... then a HS junior girl comes 3 seconds behind him (running completely alone). How does he feel now?

He still has an excellent name.

Duane wrote:

that's right, they said she would run Sunken Meadows as a workout focusing on the hills.

Sunken Meadow - no “s” at the end.

Hbjhjhbhbjjbhjhbb wrote:

the maths wrote:

The 1.11 rule for male/female conversion is your friend.

Using Cheserek's CR as baseline, the rule would have predicted 16:31 for KT today. She beat it by ten seconds; excellent, but not startling.

Now take a realistic assessment of Cheserek's 5000m track fitness when he set that CR and apply 1.11.

13:53 x 1.11 = 15:25.

I'd give her that, and good for her.

So maybe sub 16 on that course is actually not impossible for a HS girl. Tuohy is simply breaking down barriers

Remember, Jakob ran 13:17 in HS

it depends on the context of the question. 15:25 is already 12 seconds faster than the HS record. An American HS girl with the strength to run a hilly xc course at equivalent quality to sub-15:05 on the track, which is what it would take, would be another quantum leap.

Are there, or could there be, HS-age females on the planet who could run sub-sixteen at Holmdel with the aid of the best of modern "technology"? Yes, I'd say so..

the maths wrote:

Hbjhjhbhbjjbhjhbb wrote:

So maybe sub 16 on that course is actually not impossible for a HS girl. Tuohy is simply breaking down barriers

Remember, Jakob ran 13:17 in HS

it depends on the context of the question. 15:25 is already 12 seconds faster than the HS record. An American HS girl with the strength to run a hilly xc course at equivalent quality to sub-15:05 on the track, which is what it would take, would be another quantum leap.

Are there, or could there be, HS-age females on the planet who could run sub-sixteen at Holmdel with the aid of the best of modern "technology"? Yes, I'd say so..

Okay, so, pretty much everyone who pondered it agreed that 1) she was freaking incredible, and 2) there was still no way in hell she'd even approach 16 minutes, right?

Ponder a little more: she ran 16:21, with, obviously, *no one* to push her at all, didn't know the course (which definitely has some quirks), made it look pretty easy, and then nonchalantly declared afterwards that, with a little more familiarity, she's pretty sure she can run faster.

Think about it: if she were coming back here at season-end, could get a little taper, and you stuck her in a boys' race with some comparable talent to push her, she really COULD challenge 16-flat.

It turns out it's NOT so ridiculous. (I mean, yeah, it's *ridiculous,* but she'd actually have a shot to *do* it.)

This girl's in a whole different *dimension.* There's no longer really any measuring stick among American girls, ever.

We need to start comparing her to Kenyan juniors. Somebody remind me what Zola Budd ran at a comparable age.

Katelyn might actually have a shot at 15 mins on the track in high school. No American girl's ever *dreamed* of that.

I don't know how long she'll be able to hold this improvement-curve, but holy crap is she exciting to watch in the meantime.

At 17 Budd turned out a 15:01 ...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zola_Budd

Speak for yourself. I thought she'd run in the 16:20's. You just don't know her and what she's capable of.

the maths wrote:

The 1.11 rule for male/female conversion is your friend.

Using Cheserek's CR as baseline, the rule would have predicted 16:31 for KT today. She beat it by ten seconds; excellent, but not startling.

Now take a realistic assessment of Cheserek's 5000m track fitness when he set that CR and apply 1.11.

13:53 x 1.11 = 15:25.

I'd give her that, and good for her.

^^^^Great post. We need a thumbs up for posts like that.

Hounddogharrier wrote:

Have to say she looks like a lock to make the 2020 Olympic team at 5000. Should be able to make the Olympic finals.

^^^^^ FALSE. Yes, if she continues to improve or keeps up her form but you need to remember she's not even at the age where people like Mary Cain/Melody Fairchild, etc started to SLOW DOWN.

rojo wrote:

Tullyrunners Bill Meylan has given it a 177.0 speed rating. That's 1.3 points higher than her run at Ocean States (each point is worth 3 seconds). It would be the 3rd highest girls rating ever.

[quote]Meylan wrote:Based on previous year's results at Holmdel, Katelyn Tuohy race time of 16:21 would have been a speed rating of approximately 180 ... BUT for what ever reason, Holmdel on this particular day ran exceptionally fast ... Not just for Katelyn Tuohy, but for the vast majority of runners ... Speed ratings compare runner-to-runners and not runners-to-courses ... time differences between runners are the key factor.

Tully Runners’ Top 6 Girls’ XC Speed Ratings

180.3 Amber Trotter 12 Redwood Valley CA 16:24.07 (2001) — Orlando Foot Locker course record

177.9 Melody Fairchild 12 Boulder CO 16:39.2 (1990) — Balboa Park Foot Locker course record

177.0 Tuohy today - Broke CR by more than a minute

175.7 Katelyn Tuohy 11 North Rockland NY 16:06.87 (2018) — Won Ocean State Invite by 2:15

173.7 Cathy Schiro 12 Dover NH 16:46 (1984) — Kinney Northeast (VCP record)

173.0 Julia Stamps 10 Santa Rosa CA 16:41.9 (1994) — Won FL by 30.2 seconds

rojo wrote:

the maths wrote:

The 1.11 rule for male/female conversion is your friend.

Using Cheserek's CR as baseline, the rule would have predicted 16:31 for KT today. She beat it by ten seconds; excellent, but not startling.

Now take a realistic assessment of Cheserek's 5000m track fitness when he set that CR and apply 1.11.

13:53 x 1.11 = 15:25.

I'd give her that, and good for her.

^^^^Great post. We need a thumbs up for posts like that.

Hounddogharrier wrote:

Have to say she looks like a lock to make the 2020 Olympic team at 5000. Should be able to make the Olympic finals.

^^^^^ FALSE. Yes, if she continues to improve or keeps up her form but you need to remember she's not even at the age where people like Mary Cain/Melody Fairchild, etc started to SLOW DOWN.

Man I wish your political posts were as good as your running related posts. Good post.

Weird, where is Claudia Lane?

Touche. wrote:

rojo wrote:

^^^^Great post. We need a thumbs up for posts like that.

^^^^^ FALSE. Yes, if she continues to improve or keeps up her form but you need to remember she's not even at the age where people like Mary Cain/Melody Fairchild, etc started to SLOW DOWN.

Man I wish your political posts were as good as your running related posts. Good post.

Agree that his political posts show a lack of understanding of the world. However I dont think this is a great post, it shows how feeble his writing skills are.

I will write what he meant to say:

"I disagree. Mary Cain looked like the next great hope at the same age, and she turned out to be a bust."

See how that is so much clearer? No need for lot of #&@^@_symbols and RANDOM capital LETTERS!!!! The phrase "you need to remember" has no place in an intelligent discussion.

My guess is that you were trying to be polite and throw him a bone.

Something is off about the speed ratings. We know that Holmdel is more difficult than the Orlando Foot Locker course, and Tuohy ran faster than Trotter, yet has a lower speed rating. We also know that Holmdel is very close in difficulty to the current Balboa course (within 5 seconds), and Tuohy ran 18 seconds faster than Fairchild, yet has a lower speed rating. The current Balboa course is actually slower than it used to be due to the addition of several very soft wood-chip areas, so Tuohy's race is even more impressive compared to Fairchild's.

It is clear that the speed ratings are skewed in favor of footlocker finals.

In order to match Jakob's 5000 on an age-basis, she would have to run under 15:10. I am not ruling that out anytime soon. A Zola Budd-level talent here and now.

Good observations. We all sort of do our own internal ranking based on course difficulty. I agree with your assessments but still appreciate speed ratings because we can’t be familiar with every course in the country.