Barabbas wrote:
Farah will sit on Rupp. Rupp will try desperately to push the pace and get away. Farah will kick late in the race FTW. I hope I’m wrong. I’m rooting for Rupp.
Part of me says you have it exactly right.
Part of me says that the Marathon is not the 10k (or 5k). What Rupp has going for him is a good career already in UNPACED marathons, which means he knows how to race it and how to attack when he needs to attack. Both of Mo's runs were at paced London races, so clearly marathon experience is easily in favor of Rupp.
At the end of the day though, I think Farah wins it. His 206 at London was after all produced with a WR quality first half and he gamely hung on while the race went away from him in rather warm conditions. No doubt he was worth sub 205 that day, and I think Rupp may top out around 2:05:30, just good enough for the AR.