Eluid Kipchoge Will Not Win the Olympic Marathon

Rio was hell of a hot marathon and Kipchoge sweeped the field. You think he won't do it in Tokyo. Please

With all seriousness, He's been at the top for so long, the time is coming for him to be taken down. With adverse conditions, and a tactical race, I think that the Olympic marathon is the most likely to be the one where he loses.

Other than that, I 'm just trying to cause controversy. It's his race to lose.

well,, wrote:

epicTCK wrote:

If the conditions are truly to be 80+ and humid, Kipchoge will lose.

Making my prediction 2 years early.

Yeah, it was not like it was hot in Rio...

You obviously didn't watch the Rio men's marathon. As it was raining the whole time...

epicQw wrote:

Rio was hell of a hot marathon and Kipchoge sweeped the field. You think he won't do it in Tokyo. Please

No it was not...

In just curious, where did this “Kipchoge not good in hot weather” BS came from?

And this “Rupp is good in hot weather” BS came from?

Rupp is better in hot weather than himself at cold weather, because he doesn’t function in cold weather. But Kip is 10 times better in both cold and hot weather

You think a high of 79 is hot? You must be one of these hobbyjoggers who doesn't run from June - September. Projected temps for Tokyo are much warmer.

If Kipchoge doesn't drop out (which I highly doubt he will) he will easily crush the field. Kipchoge will be unbeatable at the marathon til 2022 or so. Then he will become a masters road marathoner and be the fastest masters marathoner. Or he will retire in peace.

These kinds of attention seeking predictions are worthless unless you name who will beat him. If you are just saying that you think the odds are good that one of the other 3,500,000,000 men on Earth will beat him, okay, fair enough, but I'd still make a bet on him straight up against the field at this point.

I'd say the chances of either a Japanese man or Galen Rupp medalling are fairly good, maybe one or the other, but I think, statistically, it's pretty likely that at least two East Africans will medal.

Jggghh wrote:

In just curious, where did this “Kipchoge not good in hot weather” BS came from?

And this “Rupp is good in hot weather” BS came from?

Rupp is better in hot weather than himself at cold weather, because he doesn’t function in cold weather. But Kip is 10 times better in both cold and hot weather

Never said that he wasn't good in hot weather, however, as we know from Boston, extreme conditions cause top athletes to underpreform. I'M NOT DISSING KIPCHOGE. He is undisputably the goat. But if there is a time to beat him, it's in extreme conditions and it's in Tokyo.

epicTCK wrote:

Jggghh wrote:

In just curious, where did this “Kipchoge not good in hot weather” BS came from?

And this “Rupp is good in hot weather” BS came from?

Rupp is better in hot weather than himself at cold weather, because he doesn’t function in cold weather. But Kip is 10 times better in both cold and hot weather

Never said that he wasn't good in hot weather, however, as we know from Boston, extreme conditions cause top athletes to underpreform. I'M NOT DISSING KIPCHOGE. He is undisputably the goat. But if there is a time to beat him, it's in extreme conditions and it's in Tokyo.

What makes you think that hot weather conditions is extreme conditions for a 2:01:39 Kenyan guy??

ThatAverageRunner wrote:

epicTCK wrote:

If the conditions are truly to be 80+ and humid, Kipchoge will lose.

Making my prediction 2 years early.

Who do these brutal conditions suit more, then?

My guess, if not Kipchoge, it's going to be someone very new (young) and unexpected, like Ghirmay Ghebreslassie in Bejing World Champs '15.

at this point i expect kipchoge, rupp, and farah in that order. chicago will tell us a lot. osaka at world games was horrible conditions. 50km walkers kept coming off in stetchers. both hot and humid. tokyo will be the same. more like St. Louis in august. none of the other 2:04 runners can match those guys for speed in the last 3-5k of a 2:08 marathon pace.

So he runs 2:06 and some change, but he still wins. How about? It will be tough to get back to :02, or :03; maybe :04. He has nothing else to prove to anybody. He's won everything else.

This far out, I'd pick the field over Kipchoge. Even though he deserves to be the heavy favorite, there are just so many things that can happen to make him vulnerable: he might get injured, get sick or suddenly get old. He could also blow up do to bad conditions and it's always possible that another world-beater might emerge from the flock of 2:04 guys.

Jgfghh wrote:

epicTCK wrote:

Never said that he wasn't good in hot weather, however, as we know from Boston, extreme conditions cause top athletes to underpreform. I'M NOT DISSING KIPCHOGE. He is undisputably the goat. But if there is a time to beat him, it's in extreme conditions and it's in Tokyo.

What makes you think that hot weather conditions is extreme conditions for a 2:01:39 Kenyan guy??

Hey Eluid! How u doing today?

Your prediction could be possible only with this scenario: By 2020 Mo Farah will be a consistent 2:05 marathoner (with 2:04 low PB), the conditions are going to be worst than Rio (similar to Osaka WC's in 2007), and let's say that by 35k, he and Kipchoge are tied.

And assuming that Farah performs well in the heat+humidity+pollution+no pacers equation.

Oh Please wrote:

Hardloper wrote:

Extreme conditions could be an equalizer and open the way for an upset but Kipchoge would still be the heavy favorite.

Father time has to catch up eventually, but for now he seems to be waiting. I am curious to see how he'd do in those conditions though. It would not be surprising to lose. See Kipsang in 2012. He was pretty much invincible at the time and ended up getting it wrong that day.

.....

Whole post is spot on, enuff said. Move along everyone nothing more to see here.

As of 2018 he is A HEAVY FAVORITE...2 years anything can happen and often does so your prediction is just stating what most likely to occur. 2020 if he is in similiar 2018 form I wouldnt beat against him in a hurricane.

epicTCK wrote:

With all seriousness, He's been at the top for so long, the time is coming for him to be taken down. With adverse conditions, and a tactical race, I think that the Olympic marathon is the most likely to be the one where he loses.

Other than that, I 'm just trying to cause controversy. It's his race to lose.

Well who gives a s h i t anyway, he has already won gold and if he never breaks 3 hours again for a marathon he will still be the greatest ever by some distance in the marathon.