What are the odds we get a WR in the half and the full in the same day?

At first I thought you were suggesting that Kipchoge might break both in Berlin.

malmo wrote:

There is no way of calculating the odds that two future events will yield two predetermined results on the same day.

"In no other branch of mathematics is it so easy for experts to blunder as in probability theory." -- Martin Gardner

Not true - depends upon the events and the available data. If I've got two scheduled daily flights leaving an a airport on a given day and the historical data says they both leave on time 50% of the time, then there is a 25% chance they both leave on time that day...

Despite the withdrawal of Eric Kiptanui, it is still possible the half marathon world record goes down. I don't know if the organizers have made the changes but Daniel Kipchumba (59:06 on his debut) who paced Kiptanui to 58:42 and who was to pace him again for the world record, should be entered as a competitor to chase the record. As training partner of Kiptanui, he shouldn't be far off Kiptanui's fitness. Organizers can then get another athlete who can pace the group.

For the marathon, hoping the weather will be conducive, both Kipchoge and Kipsang should run faster than Kimetto's world record with Kipchoge winning by about 20 seconds(2:02:30 vs 2:02:50) .

Neither. Heat wave in Europe for two weeks.

77-85 degrees fahrenheit. 25-30 degrees celsius.

Is Abraham Cherobin still running it? He ran that ridiculous 58:40 in this race last year and I’d love to see him go for it again this year.

artojas wrote:

Neither. Heat wave in Europe for two weeks.

77-85 degrees fahrenheit. 25-30 degrees celsius.

I have no idea where you are getting your reading or when you did them but yours is completely off. Currently it is reading 65 - 69 on the feel side with actually temperatures below that. So my predictions still stand.

PrZ wrote:

Is Abraham Cherobin still running it? He ran that ridiculous 58:40 in this race last year and I’d love to see him go for it again this year.

Cheroben is the favorite if he brings his A game. But I don't think he has the ability to go faster than 58:35. Kipchumba is more mentally prepared for even a sub 58 time and though he has only run one half marathon in his life, both Kiptanui and himself have practiced the paces and everything in their training. Kipchumba wins with a world record or a time faster than 58:30 with Cheroben coming second.

Can we please get back to calling these events the "marathon" and the "half-marathon". The "f" word is not required here because "marathon" is a specific, set distance -- and came before the 50 percent version of it!

This is not being picky, this is simply applying logic.

why do you care?

douglas burke wrote:

round and round wrote:

you think rupp could break the half marathon world record right now?

why do you think that?

4:27 pace for 13.1 miles (27:40 10,000m pace)

please explain.

I said longshot 26:44 for 10000 and a VERY good marathoner (Top 3-5 in World)

You might be the only person that thinks Rupp could get the half WR, longshot or not.

Buddhia Patel wrote:

artojas wrote:

Neither. Heat wave in Europe for two weeks.

77-85 degrees fahrenheit. 25-30 degrees celsius.

I have no idea where you are getting your reading or when you did them but yours is completely off. Currently it is reading 65 - 69 on the feel side with actually temperatures below that. So my predictions still stand.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/de/berlin/10178/hourly-weather-forecast/178087?hour=58

Just looked it up again, heat wave starts on monday. They might get lucky on sunday!

Odds are11.11% of both records being broken in the same day.

3 outcomes for World Record in Marathon - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken

Thus there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new marathon world record.

Similarly, there are three possible outcomes for the Half Marathon WR - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken

So, also a 1 in 3 chance of a new half marathon world record.

And, as any 4th grade math student could tell you, when compounding odds, you must multiple the fractions together.

Thus: 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9.

End of Thread.

End of Letsrun.com message board.

Depends upon the data wrote:

Not true - depends upon the events and the available data. If I've got two scheduled daily flights leaving an a airport on a given day and the historical data says they both leave on time 50% of the time, then there is a 25% chance they both leave on time that day...

Not really because those wouldn't be independent events. If one is delayed the other is more likely to be delayed.

Hardloper wrote:

Depends upon the data wrote:

Not true - depends upon the events and the available data. If I've got two scheduled daily flights leaving an a airport on a given day and the historical data says they both leave on time 50% of the time, then there is a 25% chance they both leave on time that day...

Not really because those wouldn't be independent events. If one is delayed the other is more likely to be delayed.

How about if 2 coins are going to be flipped on Monday then?

I guess the degradation of language is something you think is unimportant?

GlobalView1 wrote:

I guess the degradation of language is something you think is unimportant?

That you think the subject title is degrading our language speaks more about you than it does about the use of "half" and "full".

Buddhia Patel wrote:

Despite the withdrawal of Eric Kiptanui, it is still possible the half marathon world record goes down. I don't know if the organizers have made the changes but Daniel Kipchumba (59:06 on his debut) who paced Kiptanui to 58:42 and who was to pace him again for the world record, should be entered as a competitor to chase the record. As training partner of Kiptanui, he shouldn't be far off Kiptanui's fitness. Organizers can then get another athlete who can pace the group.

For the marathon, hoping the weather will be conducive, both Kipchoge and Kipsang should run faster than Kimetto's world record with Kipchoge winning by about 20 seconds(2:02:30 vs 2:02:50) .

You guys act like it's so easy to just show up and crank out a 2:02:xx hahahahahaha. Even Kipchoge knows to run 2:02 EVERYTHING has to go PERFECTLY - weather, pacing, etc. There's a reason it's only been done ONCE. The chances Kipsang and Kipchoge both run 2:02? About .00000000003%.

I'll put Kipchoge's WR chances at 20% - and that's only because he's that much of a badass.

Confuzzled wrote:

It is obviously 25%. 50% chance for marathon, either they will or they won't, thus 50%. 50% chance for half, either they will or they won't, thus 50%.

Using basic stats:

50% x 50% = .50 x .50

.50 x .50 = .25

.25 = 25%

First good candidate

Math Genius wrote:

Odds are11.11% of both records being broken in the same day.

3 outcomes for World Record in Marathon - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken

Thus there is a 1 in 3 chance of a new marathon world record.

Similarly, there are three possible outcomes for the Half Marathon WR - Broken, Exactly Tied, or Not Broken

So, also a 1 in 3 chance of a new half marathon world record.

And, as any 4th grade math student could tell you, when compounding odds, you must multiple the fractions together.

Thus: 1/3 x 1/3 = 1/9.

This one is almost as good except poster put some silly stuff at the end that detracted from it.