3 mil in the bank wrote:
The people who are a part of this community take inflation into account. They figure out a "safe withdrawal rate" which will be the amount you can safely withdraw from a portfolio that lasts, say, 30 years, *inflation adjusted*. For example, 4% has a very high probability of success. So if you have $1 mil saved, and are comfortable living on less than $40K in today's dollars, you can likely retire as long as your inflation adjusted spending doesn't exceed $40K in today's dollars going forward. There are 4 years in the past in which this strategy would fail.
That said, given the current historical bull run, I wouldn't be surprised is 2018 will be one of these years.
Not to mention 1) 50 years is different than 30 years, 2) seeing half of your money disappear and sticking to your guns that your not in one of the unlucky years that fail (your 4% has now become 8%) or even 20% of your money (where 4% is now 5%) seems unlikely to me, and 3) operating under the assumption that future you won't need or want to spend more money
The people who have successfully blogged about this have nice 50-500K incomes to offset these problems though