While it's tempting to think I showed cause, looking for a "footprint" with an expectation, and even finding examples which appear to match, is not sufficient to show both cause and effect. Drawing this kind of conclusion is the same "proof by example" fallacy which I keep saying is not valid. Notably, I did not draw this conclusion in my analysis, nor did I state that this expectation was "a goalpost". The performance analysis only shows effect. Confirmation of expectation is comforting, but falls far short of actually showing cause.
You might ask, what is the point then. The goalpost was never to show that EPO caused East African performance (something this analysis does not and cannot show), but to quantify, in terms of quality and quantity, my previously unsupported claims that statistics would show how most of the world performed rather poorly compared to expectations, in an era named after EPO. I said we should see this footprint outside of Africa. We should have seen it, for example, in Spain, where we only saw 1 athlete in 10000m (0.0%) and 1 athlete in the marathon (0.3%). We should have seen it in Morocco, and we saw 0.9% in both the 10000m and marathon, which is fairly close to MY estimation of less than 1%.
I didn't pick Spain or Morocco as cherry picked bad examples, but you guys cherry picked Spain and Morocco as the best "doped to the gills" examples of the EPO-era. These are contradictions which force us to refine our expectations.
Looking at the 101 East Africans in the 10000m and the 201 East Africans in the marathon, how many were busted for EPO or ABP? Just Kisorio and Erupe? Anyone else?
So we have examples of countries known to dope that did not perform as well as should be expected (Spain, and Morocco, and lets not forget Russia), and we still have a largely unmet burden to show that the "top" East Africans in the marathon even used EPO. That's where I left you at the end of my analysis.
Whatever you think I suspected going into the analysis, I'd have to say the suspicions of a globally available, globally effective, globally undetectable, powerful endurance drug, were not confirmed according to expectations.
And lastly, why are you so confused about why I used times not busted for EPO, or if i was "looking for confirmed EPO positive/ABP hematological sanction cases or just suspected cases?" I used all performances, including these annulled due to doping. Rather than subjectively excluding performances, I included all of them, and the results need to be interpreted with that in mind. If you develop a model, it needs to explain all the historical facts and real world observations. If I constrained myself to using just known doped performances, many events, including the 10000m and the marathon, would have no entries at all, and I would have to conclude that EPO made athletes much slower -- something I did not do, and something that cannot be reliably shown with so few samples.
Think This One Through wrote:
Nice backpedaling job - do you even bother to read what you write? Read this paragraph from your introduction: "It may not be the 3-6% individual improvement, but nevertheless, we should be able to see some sort of "EPO footprint", showing how the "game changed", resulting from a drug often described as a "game-changer." Too funny - for the E. Africans you found 3.2% for the marathon, 3.0% for the 10,000 & 2.6% for the 5000.
Therefore, two events (marathon and the 10) were right on the money, and were in fact at the low end of the "3-6% individual improvement" that you thought might be too high and the 5000 was fairly close at 2.6%. And further down on page 1 under the 5000 analysis you mention "Would expect EPO helps 5000m." So you new this all along...good job. 👍
And you say your analysis was performed without any knowledge of EPO use by the athletes, but you're suspecting it based on some of your comments, right? And if the the fast times were set by athletes "not busted"for EPO then why did you use them in the first place? Were you looking for confirmed EPO positive/ABP hematological sanction cases or just suspected cases?
You keep moving the goalposts now to deflect from the significant performance improvement seen in the longer events with the E. Africans, based on your own analysis, coupled with the recent EPO busts of top performering Kenyans. 😉