The 2020 Olympics start 2 years today - Who will make the US team 800 through 10,000? These are our picks

in case you weren't aware wrote:

mwh wrote:

Ches will marry and get his green card. If necessary, I'm available for duty.

A green card won't cut it, you need to be a citizen

Even at that part of the new IAAF rules is a 3 year wait period so even if he was to get his citizenship today he would have to wait until 2021 to compete

Our women's picks are now up. Feel free to tell us what we got wrong.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/08/cancel-trials-u-s-womens-distance-runners-will-going-2020-olympics/

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Our women's picks are now up. Feel free to tell us what we got wrong.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/08/cancel-trials-u-s-womens-distance-runners-will-going-2020-olympics/

No shalane? Ouch, run slow eat slow.

"RJ: The locks for this event are easy — Mary Cain, Alexa Efraimson, and Katelyn Tuohy. Oh wait, it’s not opposite day. "

Nice one Rojo! Can always count on you for a good ole knee-slapper

Women’s marathon. I don’t see Cragg or Linden in the mix.

Thweat will be.

Hunter ...

labentraub wrote:

in case you weren't aware wrote:

A green card won't cut it, you need to be a citizen

Even at that part of the new IAAF rules is a 3 year wait period so even if he was to get his citizenship today he would have to wait until 2021 to compete

He didn't compete for Kenya though so he shouldn't need to "transfer"

Bmartinez not even mentioned?

Women’s marathon

Locks: None

Other picks: Molly Huddle, Jordan Hasay, Amy Cragg

If USATF needs to save money, I think this is one event where we can really help them out. Let only the following five people into the Trials: Shalane Flanagan (NYC champ, 2:21:14 pb), Des Linden (Boston champ), Amy Cragg (World Championship bronze, 2:21:42 pb), Jordan Hasay (2:20.57 pb), and Molly Huddle

now pick the field with the fantasy concept that shoes with springs are finally banned by 2020 trials

don't get me wrong, they are all incredible, but at marathon distance their performance drops radically without springs

Hasay, Flanagan, Cragg might all out (at marathon distance)

Desi is top 10 but not podium.

Huddle is the real deal, Sara Hall comes into play

Suddenly it's a level playing field and some less knowns and even unknowns have a chance.

Thought experiment: imagine springs are allowed at the trials but then banned at the Olympics. Near zero chance then against east-africans if spring-users are sent.

trackandxcrunner wrote:

Bmartinez not even mentioned?

Nor did we mention Gwen Jorgensen. We probably should have mentioned Gwen given how people are obsessed. We've already received a few emails.

Interesting stat about BMartinez that blows my mind. Guess how many US titles she has won outdoors?

Zero.

Now that's hard to believe considering she has a world silver medal but Montano and Wilson were/are both very good. And then again. her pb of 1:57.9 is barely faster than Ceiara brown's.

These are not really predictions. This is basically a list of who's running the best in 2018. A lot can change in two years. Two years ago who would've thought that 5k runner Shelby Houlihan would be the be #1 in the world in the 1500m? Two years ago, who would have thought Frerichs would hold the AR in the steeple? Two years ago after failing to make the Olympic final who would have thought Ajee Wilson would rebound to be the best non-intersex 800 runner? Two years ago after bombing at the Olympic Trials who would've thought Jordan Hasay would become the second-fastest American womens marathoner?

There's going to be new faces in 2020 and some of the "locks" are not going to make the Olympic team.

Conditions for marathon in Tokyo at beginning of August will be awful, probably making a mockery of serious competition and possibly bordering on life-threatening.

I have serious doubt Rupp will even bother. He could go full-body icepack and it wouldn't help.

Beijing '08, which was warm enough to take Hall and Ritz out of their comfort zone, took place on August 24. Average high/low for Beijing for that date is 84/66.

The average high/low for marathon day Tokyo 2020 will be 88/75. An overnight "low" almost ten degrees higher than Beijing. Humidity will be extreme.

Conditions in Atlanta on March 1 will bear no resemblance to what the athletes will face in Tokyo.

Doha 2019? Avg high/low on marathon day will be 99/77. Race will be at midnight.

Two lost years for serious marathoning at Worlds/Olympics.

Really liked the idea of picking this far out - heck I'm already interested in the 2022 USMNT (assuming we qualify this time).

With that said, to throw some cold water on the predictions, how much of a LOCK would Alan Webb have been at this point in 2007. you wrote about the "Summer of Webb" last year, but a quick recap of his June/July that year.

New York Mile (Grand Prix): 1st, 3:52.84

USA Champs 1500 1st, 3:34.82

Sweden 800m 2nd, 1:45.80

Belgium 800m 1st, 1:43.84

Paris 1500m (Diamond League): 1st, 3:30.54

Belgium Mile: 1st, 3:46.91

Woah. And obviously he got 5th in the trials and that was only a year away, not two. I will say I think this was, at least one of, if not the best stretch of middle distance running in US history and I don't think any American (Ryun, Centro, Scott, even Lagat) could have beaten Webb in Paris that day (as that seems to be discussed a lot on other threads).

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Our women's picks are now up. Feel free to tell us what we got wrong.

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2018/08/cancel-trials-u-s-womens-distance-runners-will-going-2020-olympics/

Noteable snub of Gwen Jorgensen for the marathon team.

Don’t sleep on Sisson.

I say Infeld doesn’t make the 10k team. Could very well see Schweizer in there.

First, Rupp would have crushed Kipchoge had he not run the 10,000 first. Not really debatable. I do respect him for trying the double though.

Also, lol @anyone thinking True can make the men's team. He is beyond DONE. Will run Beach to Beacon annually and cherry-pick additional road races until he completely flames out.

Lagat should give the marathon a go.

As far as the ladies go...

Ajee Wilson will make the 800 and 1500 teams.

Claudia Lane will make the 1500 team.

Gwen J is a meme, not a runner, and has no chance of making the team in any event. I look forward to the passive-aggressive pseudo-inspirational tweet/vlog nonsense that will follow the trials.

LRC was right not to mention Gwen Jorgensen. She's deluded and quite frankly she was being disrespectful to other athletes who've been training for this their whole lives when she said, like it's no big deal, that she's aiming to win the Olympic marathon.

Izaic Yorks will make the 1500m team. Robby Andrews or Sam Prakel both have a good shot too.

5000m will be Chelimo then Sean McGorty then Eric Jenkins. LR had good picks there already.

I think the 10000m will include Ben True even though he'll be around 34 years old.

Am I missing something in the men’s article - says no American other than Galen had broken 2:14 this year, then says Fauble ran 2:12.

I agree. I think he will stick to the marathon. If he wants gold he’s going to have to ditch the 10,000.

I wonder how his training going for Chicago.