After multiple VERY lackluster years, will Boris Berian get cut or reduced from $125,000 after his contract this year?

Genuinely Curious wrote:

What does irritate me, is that a guy like Erik Sowinski probably has a much worse contract than Boris Berian, but is far more consistent year to year and has consistently performed at a high level over the years.

TL;DNR: The reason Sowinski makes less is not because he has a "worse" contract. He makes less because he's a "worse" runner.

Bingo! As you say, Sowinski performs at a high level, but Berian performs at the highest level. Sowinski is fast enough to win races in the US, even championships, but is not good enough to compete in the top-tier international races. When he gets into those races, he seldom is anywhere near the front. Berian, on the other hand, can win top-tier races. Since shoe companies care about performance in those top-tier races, they will pay Berian a lot more than Sowinski.

Perhaps this analogy would help explain why this is so. If Sowinski and Berian were financial assets, Sowinski would be a municipal bond from Des Moines, while Berian would be Facebook stock at the IPO. Like a muni, Sowinski is safe but boring -- nobody gets rich off of munis. Like FB, there were no guarantees Berian would continue to there are no guarantees, but he had a huge upside. And for one year at least, he delivered on his promise.

Sowinski could probably make as much ore more than Berian right now. To do that, he would just have to fast enough, or win big enough races, to qualify for bonuses.

Thank you for that post, I actually agree with a decent bit of it, mainly in regards to financial analogies.

But, aren't we being a little generous in the analogy of Berian being the track version of Facebook IPO?

Anyway, at the end of the day, high school Americans who see people winning races in the US at a high DOMESTIC level will still buy *SOME* shoes. I would argue that Nike ultimately sells more gear and shoes through Sowinski over 6 years of consistency than Berian through 3 years of erratic performances. His performance at New Balance Indoor Games was difficult to watch, and I was rooting for him. Yes, I am fully aware he was injured a decent bit, as I read the articles on letsrun.

But, ultimately, these brands are truly performing charity work when it comes to professional track and field. They are not getting profitable return on their investment. All of them, including Nike, deserve applause for what they do for the sport. People on here give Nike a lot of s***, but they are ungrateful, and do not grasp the bigger picture financially.

I'd love to see Nike's marketing numbers. I wonder how many mid-d runners have any real name recognition. I also wonder how much of their marketing is doing stuff like in-stores or visiting hs meets, etc. i know sponsored athletes in sports like volleyball have to do a lot of those.

Athletic pay is generally crazy. A handful of stars make most of the money in most sports, and rookies/youngsters imake way less than veterans. If you think track is bad, you should talk to minor leaguers. Some of them do ok, but many are playing for the equivalent of free shoes.

PS FB probably isn't the right analogy, but you get the point: Compared to Sowinki,guys like Berian hasve a higher expected value and a higher variance, so of course, sometimes they bomb out. That is why contracts have reduction clauses.

Sowinski's incredibly consistent but has never been able to improve over this time, no better than 1:44.58 marks him as good on the American level and with a shot to make national teams. He should really investigate his training plan and coaching to make it to the next level. It is obvious that he's doing something right (consistency) and wrong (inability to improve).

But Berian ran 1:43.34 in 2015. That is an absolute top level talent, ranking him seventh best American of all time. The fact that he injured his achilles is no moral strike against him. He showed in his last race that he's on the way back. I would not be at all surprised to see a 1:44 or even 1:43 high from him this year if he can get into a fast race. You go with the high ceiling talent, not guys whose best isn't good enough even to win a U.S. championship. And he's got a good backstory and is charismatic.

Strange man love of Berian for a lot of people along with a massive hype. Some claiming he's 1:41 runner and possibly a Olympic Champ and maybe even a WR holder. Amazing! People have quite the fantasies about particular runners.

If you open your eyes and look at this objectively Berian is simply a rung above Sowinski and a rung below someone like Adam K.

He can win one indoor 800 which no one cares about and his results in world outdoor competitions is mediocre.

I think he only has two runs under 1:44. A 1:43.4 and a 1:43.8. In 2015. That's only good enough to barely squeeze in the top 10 that year. Besides that he's not very good.

Berian Wins! wrote:

Bcvdhvhfxvxb wrote:

That’s why you have reductions. Nike dodged a bullet here.

Actually, it's Berian who dodged the bullet. Nike would have been able to cut its loses; NB is on the hook for the whole amount.

No. It was Nike. Remember? Nike claimed they matched the “no reductions” clause. They would’ve been stuck with a one-hit runner that they couldn’t reduce.

Plus Murphy medaled at the OGs.

I have a friend who’s dream is to get rich by being a youtuber. He gets high all the time and lives with his parents.

You sound like that friend.

I can literally make cannabis strains, and create genetically modified food. What can you do?

Gdhgbjvnbn wrote:

No. It was Nike. Remember? Nike claimed they matched the “no reductions” clause. They would’ve been stuck with a one-hit runner that they couldn’t reduce.

Actually, I had forgotten Nike matched. So you are right, Nike dodged a bullet on this one. But Berian also dodged a bullet by not signing a contract with reductions.

Perplexing wrote:

If you open your eyes and look at this objectively Berian is simply a rung above Sowinski and a rung below someone like Adam K.

I agree with you about Berian. At this point, he's almost all promise with very little delivery. He had a pretty good 2015, including two fast races in a little over a month. In 2016, he ran better.Then he got hurt, and now he's starting back. His record is so thin that, as you point out, any opinion about him is based on projections from a handful of races.

PS I compared his record over those two years with Adam K's record over the same two years. I was surprised at how comparable they were. Who knows whether that would have held up.

Genuinely Curious wrote:

New Balance has him currently on that $125,000 contract that runs up at the end of this year, and that has to be one of the highest paying mid to long distance contracts in the United States. Even with his recent 1:45.73, that wouldn't be considered that impressive for college kids nowadays.

What do the experts here know/think will happen to hos contract?

Uhhh only a few collegians ever run that fast each year (usually a handful at most). So yes, that would be very impressive for college kids nowadays.

He won't get reduced since its an off year. They'll giving him another year to come back around. He's progressed to a 1:45 800 this season and he's New Balance's Premier Athlete in US Track and Field. He's a very likeable person with a great story. They've got to give him the time to get back into his 1:43 shape, if not, a team like HOKA will pick him up and end up profiting from his name and presence (similar to Leo Manzano). He's young and able to recover at a quicker rate. He still has a lot of life and running left in his legs. If he was 28-29 then he may get reduced, but that's not the case. He opened the season running 1:50's and gutted out a 1:45 so it shows he's coming along. Have patience for the guy.

I assume NB also has a better idea than we do about what exactly his injury was, and how his rehab has gone.

Shoe companies aren’t doing ‘charity work’ by paying professional runners, and I see this said so often here. People saying that aren’t looking at the big picture. Without the concept of pro track athletes existing, the number of starry eyed hs and college kids buying shoes for seasons upon seasons and hoping to live the dream of being pro would vanish. Pro athletes as a concept keep the sport alive, even if their names are not well known. Without pros, the sport dies out at all levels. Sport dies out=no one to sell shoes to.

We had a volunteer assistant coach in college, who had placed in the top 5 in his respective distance event in the Olympic Trials, and was technically a professional runner. I use the word technically due to his contract terms stated below...no salary.

What was his contract? Free gear and a travel stipend. No salary. He had to work multiple part time jobs. Why? None of us, or most likely many others, would end up being more likely to buy this brand's shoes or gear solely because of him after we were done with getting our free Nike gear from our university.

I think there’s a misconception that track sponsorships are charity. Sponsoring said athlete doesn’t lead directly to increased sales, but it increases the perception that your brand is legit. Brooks got better market share after Hansons and the Beasts; no one buys Reebok right now for running but might in 5 years if Fox successfully builds a group around Knight. Nike sponsors every good runner they can find so that all the 4:20 and 5:20 high school milers keep buying Nike zoom victories. Skechers sponsors 29:30 guys by the bushelful to increase the brand respect among the running population. Since Berian is the only New Balance male I can think of who’s American (the only other person I know of is Hawkins, but of course, I’m not at all affiliated with this industry), it’s unlikely he gets cut. Speaking anecdotally, it seems like New Balance has more brand respect among women runners than men right now. That’s how it is on my team, anyway.

I think you're spot on about brand respect for New Balance amongst the female competitive running population. Jenny Simpson and Emily Sisson are both great brand ambassadors, and Sisson will be a great torch bearer for the future. We briefly interacted at FL nationals one year, and I thought she was a very genuine, nice girl. She has developed really well, and it also does not hurt that she is very attractive.

Does running have the most toxic fanbase out of all sports? Or have the Brojos created this by refusing to upgrade their message boards or move to reddit-style voting/accounts? Either way, it's crazy to me how the big-name runners gets absolutely thrashed on these boards on a consistent basis. I see Mary Cain or Centro's name in a post and I already know what kind of comments will be in it.

Anyway, the man has been injured. He'll be back. I think we'll see a world's or Olympic medal out of him in the next 2 years.

Interesting conversation here regarding marketability of an athlete. I think it would be good to hear why a Letsrunner buys gear. Here's me:

I'm a huge Altra fan because when I tried the Torin (deep discounts on RW), they were the only shoes that I could run in when I had metatarsal stress reactions last year. The low drop, foot shape "gimmick" worked for me, I guess?

I'm a huge Saucony fan just because of the Kinvaras (once again discovered after good reviews and great discounts)

However, I've also purchased some Nike gear due to what the "pros" are running, primarily Kipchoge. At least Nike has done a great job using him for marketing (Pegasus, 4%, Streak 6, etc)... I'm a fan of Rupp and Hasay (and Nike OP, in general) but it's rare for them to even post what shoes they're wearing on IG (Rupp doesn't have one, and Hasay hardly ever posts about gear). I'm a fan of BTC, but once again I don't know what they're wearing. I have purchased Skechers purely because Meb was wearing them- they were actually great.

So in summary, for me at least, I buy shoes based on website reviews (runrepeat, for example) and would try others purely based on the elite athletes. Say what you say about Sage Canaday, but whenever he posts about his shoes, I do get genuinely curious to buy my first pair of Hokas (if they weren't ridiculously expensive!)