Scorpion_runner wrote:
What? late in her career? She ran her first marathon in 2015! So what are you talking about? She is 31 and is still learning to run the marathon. Mary K has been running the marathon for years and at the age of 35 PRd last year for the fastest marathoner ever in a women's race.
She is young as hell in the marathon event. Runners leave the track at about 30-31 years old and then go off to the road. which is what she did. From 2009-2015 she ran track!
She will be marathon running for another 5-6 years ( 37), so not even close to the middle of her career as a marathoner.
31 is not even close to being young for a marathoner (Taylor is 32 today, btw). This isn't 2003. The marathoners who leave the track in their 30s are the rare ones who had the speed to be good on the track. The ones who didn't will typically go to the marathon in their mid 20s. And the ones who do go to the marathon after a successful track career typically reach their peak on the roads within a year or two because they already have over a decade of hard training in their legs. They may hang on and continue to be competitive for a while longer, but they rarely drop more time. Even Mary K (an outlier to be sure) didn't drop 3 minutes. I would bet that the statistical likelihood of any pro marathoner with three years of experience PRing by more than a minute (even spread out over multiple races), is under 5%.
Taylor very well may keep running marathons into her late 30s, and on the national stage the depth is such that she may continue to be in the mix, but I would be utterly shocked if she runs a 2:21. In fact, I would also be surprised if she even PRs on a record eligible course. Grandma's was very, very fast this year. The top 100 in that race was full of multi-minute PRs by experienced runners. That does not happen without a legit tailwind.
I don't mean to rip on Taylor. I think she's a badass runner, and I hope she continues to improve. I just think your optimism about her has no rational foundation.