Can Houlihan Compete in sub-14:30/sub-3:55 Race?

pessimistic fans ruin the sport wrote:

No, it's not healthy to doubt impressive performances. That is very unhealthy for the sport. I, for one, love to see the best athletes run fast times/splits and always like to see improvements in runners I've followed for years. Why do you even watch running if you suspect doping whenever somebody becomes too dominant? Do you do the same for Federer, Lebron, or Brady?

There's a difference between optimistic and naïve.

I think you should get back to us in a few years, after your parents talk to you about Santa.

It is probably safe to say that if a runner from Eastern Europe had improved for more than 10 secs. from 4:09 to sub4 within 2-3 years in their mid-20s and was closing with 57 sec. laps, all kinds of red flags would be raised. Of course this does not mean that anybody is not clean.

Good morning, Mr. Ostrich wrote:

pessimistic fans ruin the sport wrote:

No, it's not healthy to doubt impressive performances. That is very unhealthy for the sport. I, for one, love to see the best athletes run fast times/splits and always like to see improvements in runners I've followed for years. Why do you even watch running if you suspect doping whenever somebody becomes too dominant? Do you do the same for Federer, Lebron, or Brady?

There's a difference between optimistic and naïve.

I'd prefer to be naïve and enjoy watching track then constantly worry about doping.

tbh it doesn't even really faze me when athletes test positive, I just move on. I enjoyed watching Kiprop, and it doesn't make me enjoy watching Monaco 2015 any less to know he was doping. It's still an awesome race.

Jo72 wrote:

It is probably safe to say that if a runner from Eastern Europe had improved for more than 10 secs. from 4:09 to sub4 within 2-3 years in their mid-20s and was closing with 57 sec. laps, all kinds of red flags would be raised. Of course this does not mean that anybody is not clean.

I agree: The extent of the homer-ism here is pathetic, as is the willful ignorance of SH's actual record. Maybe she had great range against Iowa HS runners, but not in college. Until Pre, her times were nothing special -- she was one of many Americans stuck at 4:03. And if she's always been an amazing kicker, how come she got run down (by a sophomore) at NCAAs her senior year?

I'm not saying she's dirty, or that she's not going to be a great runner. I just think we should wait and see how her summer unfolds.

2:01 800 pb and closing a 1500 in 57 while walking down Jenny? That's not a normal result, worthy of skepticism.

rojo wrote:

OP,

I'm curious as to why you think Houlihan - one of the best women's pros in the world - would start competing in mixed gender all-comers meets? She can make a lot of money on the DL circuit competing in women's races.

Why would she start running mixed-gender races? Simply to get 3:55 competition?

In the history of the world, a non-Chiese women has never run 3:55 and lost.

The fastest runner-up showing for a non-chinese was Hassan's 3:56.05 in Monaco in 2015.

Where does the OP say she should start competing in mixed gender, all-comers meets???

rojo wrote:

OP,

I'm curious as to why you think Houlihan - one of the best women's pros in the world - would start competing in mixed gender all-comers meets? She can make a lot of money on the DL circuit competing in women's races.

Why would she start running mixed-gender races? Simply to get 3:55 competition?

In the history of the world, a non-Chiese women has never run 3:55 and lost.

The fastest runner-up showing for a non-chinese was Hassan's 3:56.05 in Monaco in 2015.

The OP didn't say anything about mixed gender races, nor about Chinese women.

Mods be moddin'

Huh ??????? wrote:

rojo wrote:

OP,

I'm curious as to why you think Houlihan - one of the best women's pros in the world - would start competing in mixed gender all-comers meets? She can make a lot of money on the DL circuit competing in women's races.

Why would she start running mixed-gender races? Simply to get 3:55 competition?

In the history of the world, a non-Chiese women has never run 3:55 and lost.

The fastest runner-up showing for a non-chinese was Hassan's 3:56.05 in Monaco in 2015.

The OP didn't say anything about mixed gender races, nor about Chinese women.

Rojo is simply pointing out that there's no such as thing as "being competitive in a sub-3:55 race" since there are no competitive sub-3:55 races. The title of the thread should have been sub-14:30/sub 4:00 to be more reasonable.

[/quote]2:01 800 pb and closing a 1500 in 57 while walking down Jenny? That's not a normal result, worthy of skepticism.[/quote]

She ran a 2:01 back in 2014, that's four years to develop her game in her early 20's. It's certainly not the norm, but it's a pretty typical path for a Rowbury, Martinez, or Simpson type of athlete. Shelby was also one of the favorites to win NCAA cross as a senior before finishing in the top 10 (similar to Simpson and Centro). In other words, she's shown a very atypical range early in her career.

Since turning professional, she's gotten marginally better each season and has consistently won US championships with her finishing speed. Similarly, Colleen, Emily, and Courtney have all made huge strides under Jerry, though Houlihan appears to be the most durable and, subsequently, the most consistent.

Anyone who knows Schumacher and his neuroses would laugh at the baseless accusations. Jerry is literally obsessed with long-term focussed development and his track record for the last 20+ years speaks for itself. He's got a killer group of competitive female athletes with great personalities that are incredible ambassadors for the sport.

Perhaps we could enjoy their success or root for their competitors without automatically assuming they're pumped with chemicals? Never mind, it's LetRun.

NFW wrote:

2:01 800 pb and closing a 1500 in 57 while walking down Jenny? That's not a normal result, worthy of skepticism.[/quote]

She ran a 2:01 back in 2014, that's four years to develop her game in her early 20's. It's certainly not the norm, but it's a pretty typical path for a Rowbury, Martinez, or Simpson type of athlete. Shelby was also one of the favorites to win NCAA cross as a senior before finishing in the top 10 (similar to Simpson and Centro). In other words, she's shown a very atypical range early in her career.

Since turning professional, she's gotten marginally better each season and has consistently won US championships with her finishing speed. Similarly, Colleen, Emily, and Courtney have all made huge strides under Jerry, though Houlihan appears to be the most durable and, subsequently, the most consistent.

Anyone who knows Schumacher and his neuroses would laugh at the baseless accusations. Jerry is literally obsessed with long-term focussed development and his track record for the last 20+ years speaks for itself. He's got a killer group of competitive female athletes with great personalities that are incredible ambassadors for the sport.

Perhaps we could enjoy their success or root for their competitors without automatically assuming they're pumped with chemicals? Never mind, it's LetRun.[/quote]

She also ran 2:01 in 2015 and 2016, then stopped running the event. No speed progression at that distance. So she's a mid 4:0X's woman without blistering speed, and then suddenly she's the best 1500 runner in America, closes in 57, and runs 3:59? Seems very abnormal. We'll have to see how the rest of her season goes.

rojo wrote:

OP,

I'm curious as to why you think Houlihan - one of the best women's pros in the world - would start competing in mixed gender all-comers meets? She can make a lot of money on the DL circuit competing in women's races.

Why would she start running mixed-gender races? Simply to get 3:55 competition?

IDK, rojo. Why did Lynsey Sharp, one of the best women's pros in the world, run in a mixed gender all-comers meet last week?

rojo, I think you're combining two separate threads. I'm talking about Houlihan being able to kick in a world-class race, which is usually run under 14:30 and sub-3:55 to medal. I think you are showing your age and not realizing how much the W distance races have progressed. The WR for 5000m is down to 14:11 and the 1500m is down to 3:50. There have been 45 sub-14:30 performances for Women and a dozen sub-3:55. Not sure what that has to do with mixed gender and all-comers. It seriously takes sub-14:30 and sub-3:55 fitness to medal nowadays... Maybe you are unawares, but Helen Obiri (KEN) won the 2017 IAAF World Championships in 14:34, closing in 59-seconds and that's not even the championship record, which is 14:26. In that same race, just last year, Houlihan was pretty much dead last and not competitive in 15:06,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90BHdoWHA0w In the 2016 Rio Olympics, Vivian Cheruiyot (KEN) won the 5000m final in 14:26, running hard from the gun,http://www.nbcolympics.com/video/kenya-goes-1-2-womens-5000m-final At the 2015 IAAF World Championships, Almaz Ayana (ETH), won the 5000m final in 14:26 as well, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOJ9gw0YonE So, thanks for playing along, man, but pay attention to the women once in a while.

rojo wrote:

OP,

I'm curious as to why you think Houlihan - one of the best women's pros in the world - would start competing in mixed gender all-comers meets? She can make a lot of money on the DL circuit competing in women's races.

Why would she start running mixed-gender races? Simply to get 3:55 competition?

In the history of the world, a non-Chiese women has never run 3:55 and lost.

The fastest runner-up showing for a non-chinese was Hassan's 3:56.05 in Monaco in 2015.

She also ran 2:01 in 2015 and 2016, then stopped running the event. No speed progression at that distance. So she's a mid 4:0X's woman without blistering speed, and then suddenly she's the best 1500 runner in America, closes in 57, and runs 3:59? Seems very abnormal. We'll have to see how the rest of her season goes.[/quote]

Right, she runs an occasional early season 800, but has not contested a hot race since her college days nor is her overall training and racing schedule geared toward the distance.

She ran 4:03 is 2016 and 4:06 in 2017 while training for the 5K and racing shorter distances as a tune up effort, not her primary event. Perhaps her blistering speed comes from the fact that she ran an open 400 in 55.5 back in 2011 and occasionally ran the 4x400 back in her college days? Clearly she has legit top end speed, most likely superior to Simpson. In a race that averaged 67 sec pace through 1100, is it really that hard to imagine a well conditioned athlete with a running start could come within 2 secs of their 400 PR from high school?

Finally, is it any more abnormal than Jenny Simpson's 4:08 to 3:59 progression?

alij wrote:

I'm talking about Houlihan being able to kick in a world-class race, which is usually run under 14:30 and sub-3:55 to medal.

On what planet???

In the last decade, only Dibaba has run sub-3:55, and she has only done that twice. Once was at the DL race in Monaco in 2015, the other was two weeks before that in a definitely non-world class race in Barcelona. The only woman other woman to run under 2:56 in that time is Muir.

Of the many "world-class" races run in the last ten years, only 25 were won with times faster than Houlihan's 3:59.06 at Pre. None of those were at the Olympics or World Championships. And plenty of other "world-class" races were won with times slower than hers.

I could go on, but why bother?

Here are the facts:

Umm, only one runner has broken 3:55 in the past 20 years. So naturally the only way Houlihan would ever compete in a sub-3:55 race is if it was mixed-gender or has Dibaba in it.

You guys love misrepresenting what people write. I said she needs to showcase sub-3:55 fitness to medal. Do you not realize that the championship races are closing in sub-2:00 for the final 800m? So, you need to be in sub-3:55 to medal.

Here are the last successive championships over 1500m, which you guys are making it sound is going to be her event of choice and she has zero chance over 5000m. I am also speaking from personal experience as a sub-14:30 and sub-3:59 guy. She needs to be in sub-3:55 fitness -

2017 IAAF World Championships - 4:02.59 (last 300m in 43.65, previous 400m in 61.80)

2016 Olympics - 4:08.92 (last 800m run in 1:57.2 by Kipyegon; third lap in 56.80)

2015 IAAF World Championships - 4:08.09 with third 400m in 57.22, final 300min 45.22, last 800m in 1:58)

So there you have it. Sub-3:55 fitness is needed. Glad I could help break it down for you guys.

alij wrote:

You guys love misrepresenting what people write. I said she needs to showcase sub-3:55 fitness to medal. Do you not realize that the championship races are closing in sub-2:00 for the final 800m? So, you need to be in sub-3:55 to medal.

Here are the last successive championships over 1500m, which you guys are making it sound is going to be her event of choice and she has zero chance over 5000m. I am also speaking from personal experience as a sub-14:30 and sub-3:59 guy. She needs to be in sub-3:55 fitness -

2017 IAAF World Championships - 4:02.59 (last 300m in 43.65, previous 400m in 61.80)

2016 Olympics - 4:08.92 (last 800m run in 1:57.2 by Kipyegon; third lap in 56.80)

2015 IAAF World Championships - 4:08.09 with third 400m in 57.22, final 300min 45.22, last 800m in 1:58)

So there you have it. Sub-3:55 fitness is needed. Glad I could help break it down for you guys.

Thanks for using this thread to tell us you were once fast enough to be an inconsequential, mediocre college runner...

Shut up, troll.

alij wrote:

You guys love misrepresenting what people write. I said she needs to showcase sub-3:55 fitness to medal. Do you not realize that the championship races are closing in sub-2:00 for the final 800m? So, you need to be in sub-3:55 to medal.

Here are the last successive championships over 1500m, which you guys are making it sound is going to be her event of choice and she has zero chance over 5000m. I am also speaking from personal experience as a sub-14:30 and sub-3:59 guy. She needs to be in sub-3:55 fitness -

2017 IAAF World Championships - 4:02.59 (last 300m in 43.65, previous 400m in 61.80)

2016 Olympics - 4:08.92 (last 800m run in 1:57.2 by Kipyegon; third lap in 56.80)

2015 IAAF World Championships - 4:08.09 with third 400m in 57.22, final 300min 45.22, last 800m in 1:58)

So there you have it. Sub-3:55 fitness is needed. Glad I could help break it down for you guys.

How do you explain Jenny Simpson then? She has medalled at the past two major championships despite never having broken 3:57. Are you contending that she has had sub-3:55 fitness but somehow has never managed to break 3:57 in losing efforts?