2018 Western States 100 Official Discussion Thread (this Saturday)

Look at the time tho wrote:

fatbody wrote:

That didn't take long. Jim is physically incapable of not front running lol

He may be in the lead, but he came through at 16 miles 15 minutes slower than last year. He is going easier. Almost a minute per mile slower is significantly slower.

Yup. The lead woman is going considerably harder than Jim, only 14 minutes back at 2:41 vs. 2:27.

fatbody wrote:

That didn't take long. Jim is physically incapable of not front running lol

All the other runners are physically incapable of keeping up with the slow jogging pace of Walmsley. He's barely under 10 minute mile pace at 15 miles into the race.

Pace so far wrote:

Walmsley's averaging 9:36 pace at 15.8 miles including a steep 4 mile uphill.

The course record average is 8:52 pace.

Oh wow. If he's going that slow and still leading, there's no way anyone will catch him. I think the best shot anyone has at beating him would be to make an early push and get Jim to trash his game plan and fall apart later on.

Looking at splits....... wrote:

fatbody wrote:

That didn't take long. Jim is physically incapable of not front running lol

All the other runners are physically incapable of keeping up with the slow jogging pace of Walmsley. He's barely under 10 minute mile pace at 15 miles into the race.

There is this little matter of a 4 mile long, steep mountain to climb over at the start. Yes, it is a mountain, and not a hill.

All four cowboys in the top 10 too!

fatbody wrote:

Pace so far wrote:

Walmsley's averaging 9:36 pace at 15.8 miles including a steep 4 mile uphill.

The course record average is 8:52 pace.

Oh wow. If he's going that slow and still leading, there's no way anyone will catch him. I think the best shot anyone has at beating him would be to make an early push and get Jim to trash his game plan and fall apart later on.

Walmsley game plan is: take the lead and run as fast as I can. That is it. There is nothing else he considers.

Looking at hills...... wrote:

Looking at splits....... wrote:

All the other runners are physically incapable of keeping up with the slow jogging pace of Walmsley. He's barely under 10 minute mile pace at 15 miles into the race.

There is this little matter of a 4 mile long, steep mountain to climb over at the start. Yes, it is a mountain, and not a hill.

Last year he ran up that mountain at a little over 10 minute pace and then got much faster.

This year he’s gonna finish like a train.

Looking at splits....... wrote:

Looking at hills...... wrote:

There is this little matter of a 4 mile long, steep mountain to climb over at the start. Yes, it is a mountain, and not a hill.

Last year he ran up that mountain at a little over 10 minute pace and then got much faster.

I think he went up faster in 2016. In 2016 he managed to walk to the finish, but got chicked. In 2017 he was DNF miles before he imploded at the river crossing. Last year he mentally gave up with many miles to go. Some type of severe vitamin deficiency, I think, for both years.

- wrote:

This year he’s gonna finish like a train.

A train needs rails to run. A train without rails spins its wheels.

Look at the time tho wrote:

He may be in the lead, but he came through at 16 miles 15 minutes slower than last year. He is going easier. Almost a minute per mile slower is significantly slower.

Thus he was averaging 8:40 pace at 15.8 miles a year ago, compared to 9:36 pace this year.

Weren't the conditions also much worse a year ago?

fatbody wrote:

Pace so far wrote:

Walmsley's averaging 9:36 pace at 15.8 miles including a steep 4 mile uphill.

The course record average is 8:52 pace.

Oh wow. If he's going that slow and still leading, there's no way anyone will catch him. I think the best shot anyone has at beating him would be to make an early push and get Jim to trash his game plan and fall apart later on.

Yeah, it seems there's not much competition this year. Last year other runners had a game plan to win, but this year they don't.

That Florian guy hyped earlier in this thread already bonked, 11th place.

Walmsley has picked things up big time. Average pace 8:41 now, under course record pace. Pace the last 8 miles has been 6:58....

Jim should test the effort of the field for a little bit and then drop the pace. I think waiting at midway would be a proper strategy to see how everyone is doing and access the second half of the race situation.

Is he going too hard now???? wrote:

Walmsley has picked things up big time. Average pace 8:41 now, under course record pace. Pace the last 8 miles has been 6:58....

Now the only question is where Walmsley will bonk.

Narway wrote:

Jim should test the effort of the field for a little bit and then drop the pace. I think waiting at midway would be a proper strategy to see how everyone is doing and access the second half of the race situation.

The problem is if he's close to CR divided by two. He'll make an attempt at the record if it's within reach. With predictable results.

He's not going to sit and wait.

I think yes, but I hope no. I am tired of these Euro champs.

He looks good at 24 miles.

https://twitter.com/iRunFar/status/1010549277079293952

Hasn't even broke a sweat yet. Looks like he's going for a stroll in the park. He's got this one, I believe.