Sub 2 45 marathon feasibility

Thanks for the encouragement and advice. Going to follow my even effort pacing band plan to Mile 20 in the Bronx and then pick it up if I have got it. Weather forecast currently seems to be a near ideal 49-54 degrees F with no rain and not much wind. Good luck to some dude and also running NYC.. let’s run a smartly paced race and go get that sub-2:45!

@GBohannon, Whoa, that is weird. Thank you!

@Bruin1996, I'm starting in Orange Wave 1 Corral A so will likely bump into one another without knowing it! Was training towards a sub 2:40 but it was always going to be an ambitious goal. I'll likely revise this partway during the race depending on how I feel.

In terms of training several of my weekly long runs in the last three months have involved large blocks at 3:44min/km pace (like 22K @ GMP in the middle of a 32K run) pace and have been going well. I've also done a few long runs with the last 10K @ GMP before breakfast and without fuel. Intervals have also been solid (5xmile @ 5:30 avg with 1 min jog, 8x800m 2:37 avg with 2 min jog, etc) and did a 5K "fun run" in 16:29 a week ago. Earlier in the year I did a 1:16 half.

Only thing I'm a little nervous about is my lack of miles, was meant to do more but didn't happen. Currently averaging 92K/week. (although this is still up from 62K/week last year which got me a 1:20 half and a 2:49 full).

@Bruin1996, I forgot to mention it is a good idea to have a plan to counter the inevitable overestimate that GPS watches will do (especially on a course with tall buildings like NYC).

Today I tried the "Race Screen" on my Garmin. I also turned off auto-lap and will manually lap at each mile marker. Tried out this morning and worked well.

Similar to the above - best run was 16 miles @ 6:15 with a couple very easy miles on both sides, 8k during training @ mid-26s, 70ish mpw with 90 peak. We'll see!

And from the little running I've done there, I've given up on the satellites in New York

@Also Running NYC

Impressive workouts! Thanks for the tip about the GPS.. I have never heard about this Race Screen.. is it available on the Garmin 935? I will try to manual lap my Garmin as well. Had similar GPS issues in Chicago last year. I also ran a 1:16 half.. interested to see how we both will do at NYC. I am in Green Wave 1 Local Competitive so we might run past each other after Mile 8.

@Still some dude

Nice.. I did 3 20-22 mile long runs with 26.2K@6:15 pace. Weather looks good so favorable conditions for a PR attempt.

don't bother with your GPS in NYC. They have timing splits at every single mile, so you can do the math at each marker. If you need a GPS in order to keep pace between mile markers, you're not doing it right.

Easy Peasy wrote:

don't bother with your GPS in NYC. They have timing splits at every single mile, so you can do the math at each marker. If you need a GPS in order to keep pace between mile markers, you're not doing it right.

Unless all your training and paces are known in km/min

So? You should have run your race by now?

What did you run?

I like to use the lap pace to control my running speed because when I run by feel I tend to overestimate my abilities and run too fast leading to a late-race faltering(or blow up in the marathon). This has happened in 10 mile tempo runs where I start out at an excessively fast pace and slow down the last few miles. When I have controlled my run to a target pace based on GPS, I am usually able to speed up and finish fast on the last few miles.

My point wasn’t that you don’t need to know your time, my point was that you have clocks at every mile marker and can just do the math to determine what your actual pace was. I was saying that you shouldn’t be relying on GPS, not necessarily that you shouldn’t be looking at the clock. Plus, for me at least, doing a little mental math each mile helps get my mind off of other things. Since you’ll be clocking miles right around 6:00, it should be relatively easy to do.

Not off 1:23 only you know if you can get in shape to go sub 1:20 needed to hit your goal.

Just train hard and see where it gets you.

Well, went well for me I would say! Was on pace for 2:40, blew up but still a good ways under 2:45. How’d you guys do?

@some dude: Congrats on the sub-2:45! I ran a 2:42 with a 1:10 negative split for my second half. Very happy with the way I paced the race and it ended up being just over a 10 minute PR for me. I felt fine after the race besides for sore legs so I think I could have gone a bit faster but I did not want to risk the late race crash and burn.

Cottonshirt wrote:

why do you label a session of 5 x 1000m at 5km pace "VO2max," ? this has nothing to do with your VO2max.

cheers.

Remember - to improve your VO2 Max, you must run at pace where you hit 97-100% of you maximum heart rate. So it is good to know your actual MAX HR. Helps you to train a lot smarter. VO2 Max is a pace that one can hold for 8-12 minutes. Elites longer than amateurs. So elite runners definitely can hit their VO2 Max pace at their 5K race pace, as they wrap those 5K’s up in 13 minutes.

You - recreational runner - will probably hit your VO2 Max for 1 or 2 minutes when you run 5x1000 at your 5K race pace. Maybe even 3 or 4 minutes. Even though your VO2 Max pace is closer to your 3K pace. If you keep your recovery between intervals short and active, you are likely to hit VO2 Max HR in the end of intervals 4 and 5.

Plus, if we factor in accumulated fatigue, meaning you do not taper for the session, instead you go into it 2-3 days after your 30+K long runs and what not, your heart rate will be slightly higher during the session already and your VO2 Max pace is probably closer to 4K race pace than 3K race pace. Runners subconsciously also speed up in the end and therefor exceed their 5K pace during the session anyway.

In conclusion - 5x1000 @5K pace is still a good workout and you are likely to improve your VO2 Max with this workout, but you are better off aiming slightly faster pace than your 5K race pace. That way you will spend more time in that VO2 Max zone (97-100% of your MAX HR).

EXTRA TIP - How to know your actual max HR without any expensive lab tests? Here's how ...

Take your watch with HR strap and find a 200m uphill stretch, that is demanding yet runnable. I recommend a minimum elevation difference of 15 meters and I strongly suggest you choose pavement over trail. Do a proper warm up. When ready, do the following test … Run those 200 meters uphill as fast as you can. When you get to the top, without stoping, turn around and run back down. Don’t sprint downhill! Don’t injure yourself! But don’t slow jog either. As you get back down, also no stopping. Instead, turn around and run up again, as fast as you can. Every time you get on top, look at your heart rate. When you see same HR value twice, count this as your max HR.

This is a demanding test, as you probably have to run this climb for 6-8 times, pretty much all out. So it is good to have someone yelling at you on the sideline. :-D To make sure you really put in everything you’ve got. You will see your heart values rise approximately like this: 148; 162; 174; 180; 182; 183; 184; 184. So the final 3-4 uphill runs are absolute killers. You get close to your MAX HR rather fast, but getting to actual maximum is hard. Obviously you should not be doing that test when you just started out running, nor when you are coming back from sickness or injury. Make sure you are fit to do it and that you feel well. Always a good idea to consult your doctor prior to any test like this. However, runners in bad shape get faster to their MAX HR and therefor suffer less during the test. :-D I have seen runners getting to their max with only 4 intervals and runners that have gone up 11 times.

This test is surprisingly accurate. We compared the result of 6 runners (lab test vs uphill test). 2 out of the six got exactly the same result and from those who were not spot on, non of them were off more than 1-3 beats. If I remember correctly, the difference was just around 0,5% - 1,6%. Go figure, whether it was us or the lab who were bit off here. :-D

Anyway, this test is a solid starting point that allows you to determine all of your pace zones pretty damn accurately. From your max stroke volume zone to lactate threshold to VO2 Max, etc.

A 1:23 half relates to 2 x 1:23 + 5 min = 2:51 …….so at least 2:51 should be doable.

At least when coached by a magic wizard. :)

I would not listen to anyone saying 2:45 is unobtainable. 18 weeks is plenty of time. It will be tough but you can do it if you prioritize.