Could Yuki Kawauchi win the WS 100?

Ultras are pointless wrote:

Sorry but ultras are something that nobody with decent athletic capability can take serious and are absolutely obsolete and pointless. Almost any decent marathon runner would win the majority of ultra races. Ultras are for failed athletes that never made the cut in any Olympic distance and are now searching for their athletic relevance. A few weeks back a 39-year old German dude with a 2:18 marathon PB won the wings for life running 77km (about 48mi) in under 5hrs, beating all the favorites that call themselves ultra marathon runners. Among them another German dude who is claiming to contend for the WS100 title this year. What a joke.

come on man..really?

I've trained over the last 60 miles of the WS100 course, i.e., the easier miles, with a guy who ran the WS100 often. Based on what I was able to find, the ultras Yuki is doing are paved road/gravel road ultras. WS100 is nothing like that. There are some dirt stretches you can really run, but there's also fording creeks, jumping over rocks, and a few nasty downhills and uphills... and running at night... and learning how to eat while running. You can't ignore the trail and just run, like you would in road race. Eventually, a hidden rut or root will cause a face plant.

My training partner won his AG at WS100 several years. The fatigue really messes with your mind. He told me that once he was running at night and looked over and saw a 6-foot tall rabbit running on its hind legs beside him. He thought nothing of it. He ran with the rabbit for a long time. Looking back later, the odd thing to him wasn't that he saw a 6-ft tall rabbit; it was that he thought it was perfectly normal.

Correct me if I'm wrong, as I'm basing this on second-hand reports, but Yuki frequently does his long run on the trails or in the mountains. I think he'd handle the WS course just fine.

https://runningscience.co.za/elite-athletes-training-log/yuki-kawauchi/

gakj wrote:

WS100 won't let him race. All these races have been exposed for discriminatory practices in regards to registration, it's why they created the Golden Ticket (against the RD wishes) to solve for up and coming elites and not keep it white-old centric.

They need to bring in new blood to these races like the Walmsley's of the world.

Like the Walmsley’s what of the world?

Disregarding the ignorant comments about what talent may be required to run an ultra (with whatever terrain / distance one refers to), it is worth noting that particularly in the US, though they are in vogue on trails, ultras do not mean trails and trails do not mean ultras. However, running is running - or in say, an alpine style race (Hardrock), bipedal human locomotion is bipedal human locomotion (if you're trying to be precise with the word running - trekking poles are another matter for another time).

As far as Yuki goes, this was his longest race to date, but not his longest distance traveled by foot. I believe he's run 7+ hours and or 100 km in training at slow paces. A race of Western States duration is perhaps another matter. It is well known that Yuki is a poor hot weather runner, which would make the race that much more difficult, and I haven't any idea how he handles technical terrain. Though the terrain at WS is mild relative to some races out there, it still doesn't quite qualify as road running (more technical the better also seems to be a trend - except at Sonoma, TNF 50 etc - and I'm very familiar with technical terrain up in the northeast - Catskill Mts etc).

A much more reasonable question than the opening poster asked would be how Yuki might fair at Comrades - the single most competitive and oldest ultra in the world that is pure competition with no pacers. Like WS however, it is fairly hot.

Personally, I'd be curious to see how Yuki might fair in a 100 km road or track race. Don Ritchie's 6:10:20 100 km I believe from 1979, is the oldest record in Track & Field in international sports. For those with Walmsley love (I am among them), granted he only attempted the year before his JFK 50 CR, he blew up in spectacular fashion at the Winschoten 100 km 2015 WC, finishing in 7:05 after a 3:05 first 50 km. For reference, Don Ritchie split 50 km in less than 3 hours in his WR. No one at the time of Ritchie's record thought his record would last nearly this long. 100 km and Comrades both have rich histories of fast marathoners attempting them. Only 6 men in history have run under 6:20 for 100 km. I would be much more curious to see Kawauchi give one of those two races a go than WS.

What is Jim’s marathon PB again? Oh wait he hasnt run one because he ducks real competition and drug testing.

Apostrophe Crime’s wrote:

gakj wrote:

WS100 won't let him race. All these races have been exposed for discriminatory practices in regards to registration, it's why they created the Golden Ticket (against the RD wishes) to solve for up and coming elites and not keep it white-old centric.

They need to bring in new blood to these races like the Walmsley's of the world.

Like the Walmsley’s what of the world?

To my fellow steeltown runner (s/o Pittsburgh)..I appreciate your balanced viewpoint on the OP. As a fan of ultras, I'd love to see a road runner like Yuki get into Western, even if it ends in epic bonk fashion, it would still be a spectacle. He's a unique character for sure and Ultras very well could be in his future. Roads and Ultras are two different beasts though, and somehow this gets forgotten on this site all too often. Technical terrain on top of wildly changing climates in a race like Western is a 180 from a 2 hour and change road marathon, even on the hottest or coldest of days. Comrades just sounds like cruel and unusual punishment, but it may suit him well if he ever wants to venture into Ultra land. TNF 50 would be awesome, but still, there's like 10k climbing in that right? These are variables that most road runners just aren't conditioned for in a single race. Road speed may play a pivotal role in a flat, runable 50k but variables beyond a "runable" 50 miler add up too quick to assume road speed always translates. Sage and others have proved this time and time again.

Ultras are pointless wrote:

Sorry but ultras are something that nobody with decent athletic capability can take serious and are absolutely obsolete and pointless. Almost any decent marathon runner would win the majority of ultra races. Ultras are for failed athletes that never made the cut in any Olympic distance and are now searching for their athletic relevance. A few weeks back a 39-year old German dude with a 2:18 marathon PB won the wings for life running 77km (about 48mi) in under 5hrs, beating all the favorites that call themselves ultra marathon runners. Among them another German dude who is claiming to contend for the WS100 title this year. What a joke.

so a 2:18 marathoner can outrun a guy training for a hilly trail 100 miler over a 45mi flattish road race. so what?

Maybe. Also maybe that there are dozens of 13-14:xx collegiate runners with the hidden talent to school everyone including the pro marathoners over 100 rough trail miles. Walmsley has definitely shifted paradigms in the WS100 world, and yet, there's really nothing extraordinary about his talent in a truly elite sense. He simply has solid D1 distance running background, great mechanics, and a love for running hours in the mountains every day.

Ultras are pointless wrote:

Sorry but ultras are something that nobody with decent athletic capability can take serious and are absolutely obsolete and pointless. Almost any decent marathon runner would win the majority of ultra races. Ultras are for failed athletes that never made the cut in any Olympic distance and are now searching for their athletic relevance. A few weeks back a 39-year old German dude with a 2:18 marathon PB won the wings for life running 77km (about 48mi) in under 5hrs, beating all the favorites that call themselves ultra marathon runners. Among them another German dude who is claiming to contend for the WS100 title this year. What a joke.

That's pretty much what 100 meter folks must say about milers.

Yuki "runs" Western States - snooze fest. I'm sorry but when eating becomes the key element of a contest then you've lost me.

Yuki runs Comrades - now we're talking. Make it happen Brett.

In the last two years the strongest runner (with lots and lots of specific training) didn’t win the WS100. Could Yuki win? There simply is no way to tell. Jogging 100k on trails or racing 100k on pavement is something completely different than racing 100 miles on a WS like course.

The disrespect towards ultra trail running on here reminds me a lot of my days as an 800m runner where some of my team mates would claim to be 2:30 marathoners right now just because we raced our 10mile long run in under an hour. Just take some energy gels and hang on a little bit longer, that’s all it takes, right? :P

skier wrote:

Maybe. Also maybe that there are dozens of 13-14:xx collegiate runners with the hidden talent to school everyone including the pro marathoners over 100 rough trail miles. Walmsley has definitely shifted paradigms in the WS100 world, and yet, there's really nothing extraordinary about his talent in a truly elite sense. He simply has solid D1 distance running background, great mechanics, and a love for running hours in the mountains every day.

There is something more going on with Jim besides great mechanics. Lake Sonoma 50 has a list of times by solid NCAA runners, marathoners and trail studs over the years and nobody has been within 19 minutes of his CR there. It is not even a technical route.

Jim’s CR ( 5:50-5:51)

Alex Varner 6:09

Zach Miller 6:11

Rob Krar 6:12

Sage Canaday 6:13-6:17

Tim Freiks 6:15-6:17

Etc,

Max King, Cody Reed, Tim Tollefson, Chris Mocko all ran much slower. The race site has all the history and lists on times. Interestingly Jim first ran over 6:40 there also and was a DNF another year I believe. Must be something in the water up in Flag to have that kind of improvement.

ashevilTR wrote:

There is something more going on with Jim besides great mechanics. Lake Sonoma 50 has a list of times by solid NCAA runners, marathoners and trail studs over the years and nobody has been within 19 minutes of his CR there. It is not even a technical route.

Jim’s CR ( 5:50-5:51)

Zach Miller 6:11

If you go by college performances, you'd expect Jim to be 5 minutes per hour faster than Zach. So Jim should be down to 5:41.

Doesn’t always work that way in ultras, son. Hawks was a faster college track runner than Jim and a D1 All American in xc and he routinely gets beat by Miller. Yuki would smash Comrades and WS. 2:08 marathoner over Jim (who’s best half marathon was 1:08 after college). Did they ever test at Lake Sonoma 50?

zzzz wrote:

If you go by college performances, you'd expect Jim to be 5 minutes per hour faster than Zach. So Jim should be down to 5:41.

No, Hawks was not faster than Walmsley in college. Walmsley's fastest steeplechase is better than Hawks' 28:53 10000m.

Runners usually look at high school performances when they point to raw running talent. That's why there are so many wasted talent threads here for runners that don't do well in college running, or skip most of it like Verzbicas. Like most college runners, Walmsley didn't have a perfect 4 year development like Rupp did. He had some ups that showed incredible talent like 13:56 as a sophomore, and making it to the NCAA Championship finals in the steeplechase as a senior. But some down years interrupted training and slowed his ultimate college times. By high school performances, Walmsley is on another raw talent level than all the guys on that list above. He's the only one to make the Footlocker Nationals, finishing in the middle. Those dudes would have been far back in high school cross if in the same race.

I'll add that Hawks was training with Cam Levins in college, probably doing super high mileage like Levins, and he was close to maxing out at 28:53. Walmsley's training in college to get a better steeplechase performance than that was much less on the work scale. If both had gone pro track, Walmsley would have had a much higher ceiling than Hawks.

3km track raw talent is very different than talent in 100 mile mountain runs and other Ultramarathons. Jim has no marathon time to his name and only a 1:08 in the half.

Walmsley probably didnt go pro in track because he was too busy getting kicked out of Air Force for cheating.

And you are wrong about Walmsley being on another raw talent level. Tim Freriks was a total stud in highschool: sub 9 in the deuce and great at 5km xc: http://www.espn.com/highschool/rise/news/story?id=3621669