The Monday Big Discussion: After 31:55 10k Win in Stanford, how do you assess Gwen Jorgensen's Olympic chances?

Well I haven't read all the previous post but would like to put Gwen in with a chance for at the least a top 10 in Tokyo. Her hardest test will be making the team but she is an athlete on the up in regards to marathon. I don't believe that Flanagan or others who have been racing so well over marathons recently will be making the 2020 team. 2 more years is a long time and the training and racing toll on the body will bode well for the next generation to move to the forefront. The biggest issues as always is that USA woman and men have a qualifying marathon then the real thing in a relatively short time frame. I would imagine the trials will be in January and the Olympics in Tokyo are in July/Aug which is one of the main reasons why I think Gwen will race so well.

The marathon in Tokyo at that time of the year will be extremely difficult not only based on the heat but the humidity that will be ever present. This will mean that sport science will be very important and as most are aware Kenyans don't always race well in the humidity. Iten and training at attitude is nothing to what they will face. This is where a very talented athlete with a good support team and who is well coached will do very well.

Gwen's 15;15 for 5k indoors easily convinced me that she could make the team. Her prior Olympic results lets me and everyone else know that she knows how to prepare.

I like her attitude not caring what other think. Did anyone really think when she made the switch she was going to say "I just want to make the USA Marathon team for Tokyo" she is a competitor and knows that you have to set extreme goals, put it out there, and train like hell to reach them! I wish her the best of luck!

If Gwen makes the Olympic Marathon Team, do you think that Stanley will go with her to Tokyo???

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Need To Know wrote:

If Gwen makes the Olympic Marathon Team, do you think that Stanley will go with her to Tokyo???

I was talking Jonathan Gault - the originator of the 0% comment - today and he made a great point.

"Do people realize what happened in Rio? The US's 3 all ran A races and Flanagan, Linden and Cragg finished 6th, 7th and 9th."

Yes, Flanagan won NYC but in NY there were only 3 women with a PB faster than her.

One point I just thought of, If Jorgensen wasn't good enough to win NCAA xc within 2 years of picking up the sport, why do you think she'd be able to win the Olympic marathon within 2.5 years?

rojo wrote:

I was talking Jonathan Gault - the originator of the 0% comment - today and he made a great point.

"Do people realize what happened in Rio? The US's 3 all ran A races and Flanagan, Linden and Cragg finished 6th, 7th and 9th."

Yes, Flanagan won NYC but in NY there were only 3 women with a PB faster than her.

One point I just thought of, If Jorgensen wasn't good enough to win NCAA xc within 2 years of picking up the sport, why do you think she'd be able to win the Olympic marathon within 2.5 years?

This. The reason her "Gold in Tokyo" statement evokes misgivings is because it suggests that she can do what several of the greatest US marathoners of her generation(ish) haven't been able to do, including Flanagan, Linden, Cragg, Goucher, Kastor . . . the list goes on. I'm rooting for her, but I was there in LA in 2016 and I saw what it took just to make the team. Shalane collapsed at the finish. Goucher had a great day and was 4th. And this was before the advent of Molly Huddle and Jordan Hasay. Dream big, but don't get ahead of yourself.

The SI Article also made me wonder if Jerry is going to be a good fit for her as a coach. I think she says something about being a racer, not a trainer. Jerry is notorious for limiting the number of races his athletes take part in -- particularly his marathoners.

Wait that is not a a well thought out argument considering she started tri's in 2010 and has been running since them. She just didn't suddenly run 15:15 for 5k. I was impressed when she ran a tough 10k in Sydney in 32:12 in 2015.

24 37 Bartlett, John M37 Sydney Striders Road Runn 32:03

25 988 Cole, Matt M32 Randwick Botany Harriers 32:04

26 1024 Highnam, Tom M42 Sydney Striders Road Runn 32:07

27 718 Roche, Kieran M22 32:11

28 438 jorgensen, gwen W29 32:12

29 33 Barker, James M38 32:22

30 708 Robertson, Kevin M40 Sutherland District Athle 32:33

31 896 Warren, Mark M34 Mingara Athletics Club In 32:33

32 98 Burgess, Joe M19 Sydney University Athleti 32:34

Now this result may not mean much to you but what I didn't put on was that Eloise Wellings was 40 seconds back in 32:53 and she is a 14:54 5k 1:09 1/2 marathoner. Aussie Milly Clark who has run 2:29 could only manage to run 33:30 for this 10k the year she ran that time.

I think she'll make the USA team and top 10 finish in Tokyo 2020.

Coffee Monster wrote:

epicTCK wrote:

YOU will NEVER win an oly gold with THAT MENTALITY

THE GRIND NEVER STOPS

Hey dumb @ss, she already has an Olympic gold.

Cheers!

hey dumb @ss I think it's pretty clear I was trolling perhaps my humor was lost on you

I don't know who you are but your last 2 posts mirror my opinion almost 100%. A lot higher than ZERO lol.

Need To Know wrote:

If Gwen makes the Olympic Marathon Team, do you think that Stanley will go with her to Tokyo???

Now that's funny! He seems to be the star of her youtube fluff so I would imagine he would go.

I watched the video. Did they say they were on 32 flat pace with a lap tongo, and she ran 31:55? So a 71s last lap? And she made that last 150m look easy. She had way more than 31:55 left in the tank, but she was just racing to win.

And she was with Wellings at 8km, I had a very close view. She is gonna shock the pants off the doubters, seems to be a lot of pessimistic Americans.

I'm an american but have a little eye for talent! TDF Green Jersey winner is my former student who I got in the sport. Just happen to have a little bit of an idea about endurance sports.

sadgadsfasdf wrote:

Regarding Gwen Jorgensen, I'm wondering if she's going to struggle to maintain her fitness from running alone. She's got this huge aerobic engine and a lot of muscle, developed by working out several times a day for many hours a day, and it might be tough to find ways to maintain that as a runner. In fact she might not want to maintain all of it (the upper body for sure), but some of it is functional. So I wouldn't be surprised if she did really well in her first season or year of running, and then we saw a dip in her performance before it ultimately improved.

I guess I’m the only one who’s major concern is her staying injury free? What kind of mileage was she previously running? As a triathlete she was getting aerobic fitness from splitting her training in three sports. Now all her fitness must come from running. And realistically for marathon success she’s going to need to run a lot of mileage. Unless she was running big miles and 7 days a week as a triathlete she now has a big switch in training and a pretty narrow window of time to have a huge jump in needed mileage etc. I can’t help but worry that she has as a serious potential for injury with a huge and drastic change in training like an elite marathoner (mileage etc.) from an elite triathlete.

epicTCK wrote:

Coffee Monster wrote:

Hey dumb @ss, she already has an Olympic gold.

Cheers!

hey dumb @ss I think it's pretty clear I was trolling perhaps my humor was lost on you

... Equanimity is also important to WeJo. “I don’t want us to be hot-headed, self-righteous pricks like some Deadspin guys,” he said.

WeJo earned an ­economics degree at Yale and spends more time managing the site than writing. His ­rationality tempers the often whimsical RoJo, who claims to suffer from “idea­phoria.”

(“I’d be a billionaire if someone implemented all my ideas,” RoJo told me. One of them: a “how to be an adult” website.)

“Weldon and Robert’s work has qualities of journalism,” says Tim Layden, a senior writer at Sports Illustrated. “But their best quality is that they don’t give a sh*t about offending people.

This is fun.

she has mentioned that there have been some niggles popping up d/t increased mileage and that she wants to run more but hasn't been able to. she continues to cross-train on the bike and in the pool. there are other pro runners who swim regularly for xtraining too

I doubt any Kenyans and Ethiopians cross train on a bike let alone swim in some pool. World class marathoning is not the same at elite tris. World class marathoning is serious business and not a circus like the Ironman.

coahc wrote:

I'm an american but have a little eye for talent! TDF Green Jersey winner is my former student who I got in the sport. Just happen to have a little bit of an idea about endurance sports.

Yes mate, I know who you are. I wish I had a dollar for every time you try to claim credit for Michael Matthews. You should tell the story about the soccer player more often, everyone should hear that a few hundred times too.

bladerunner wrote:

Need To Know wrote:

If Gwen makes the Olympic Marathon Team, do you think that Stanley will go with her to Tokyo???

Now that's funny! He seems to be the star of her youtube fluff so I would imagine he would go.

Stanley =

I read recently her mileage went from her normal 40 mow to 80 mpw. Long run from 80 (1 hour 20) minutes to 2 1/2 hours and pace dropped from over 8 minutes a mile to 7 minutes being her and Shalane grandma pace.

So I'm sure big improvements on all 3 of her pb 15:15i 5000m, 31:55 just ran to win 10000m, and 2:41 triathlon marathon leg will follow later this year, 2019 and 2020 if she stays healthy.