I actually appreciate your response, it’s really well thought out.
I agree that Kerley may have been done, but I’m still not sold on it 100%.
He ran his 200 PR after USAs and only 2 or 3 weeks before World Champs. In his semi he ran a 44.5 after getting out in a blazing 20.5. Not only that, but he had ran a 44.9 in his prelim just a day or two beforehand.
These feats alone suggest he was in at least a similar fitness to what he was within a few weeks before NCAAs. With the exception of his 43.7, his best performances of the season were all either 44.0 or 44.1, and following his rounds I don’t think it would have been absurd to imagine him running a 44.1 or 44.2 in the final.
Although that is a decline, I don’t think it’s fair to call that a burnout. And, yes, Kerley isn’t slow; and it would be ignorant and dismissive for me to label him as such, but amongst his peers, he is obviously on the slower side. Van Niekerk, Merrit, Makwala, and even Michael Norman all hold faster PRs in the shorter sprints. That aside he does have exceptional strength and there’s no reason for me to downplay his talent.