2018 NCAA mile: If Edward Cheserek were racing Kerr this year, who would you pick? Will Elle Purrier win NCAA title #1?

Kerr surprised everyone with his close last year, including a possibly overconfident Cheserek. Given the knowledge of their previous meeting, Edward would obviously take a different approach to his race strategy.

Assuming he went straight to the front and ran 56, 58, & 58 for a 2:52ish 1200, as long as he closes in 59 or better, he wins that race 9 out of 10 times.

With Haas in his corner calling these shots, the smart money would be on King Ches.

Rooting for cranny in the mile. But i would be very unsurprised to see Dani jones take it. I don’t think Elle will win but I think she’ll finally get her title in the steeple in a few months

D’Ye Ken? wrote:

I think the issue is that Cheserek has transcended his level of performance from that indoor season.

Kerr’s a gamer, but I suspect Ches is now a cut above.

How did Cheserek develope so much speed all of a sudden at his age?

How did Cheserek beat the times of past indoor mile studs from the 80’s that were suspected of doping?

Watch the race ... Ches jogs it in when he realizes he won't catch Kerr. Ches keeps looking over his shoulder and just eases up and jogs in to ensure he gets 2nd. So, I think the winning margin is exaggerated - it would have been much closer if Ches kept pushing.

Ches ran a 1m prelim (sub 4) and the 5000 final on Friday (13:40 FTW).

The mile final was on Saturday so, it is easy to see why he might be tired. If it was a one off race, I think Ches would have beat Kerr this time last year. And now, a year later, Ches has only gotten better. He ran the #2 all time indoor mile. He can close insanely fast - he won that 3k the day after the #2 all time mile with a blistering kick defeating some legends in the process. There is no way he gets beaten by Kerr now.

Questionable speed wrote:

D’Ye Ken? wrote:

I think the issue is that Cheserek has transcended his level of performance from that indoor season.

Kerr’s a gamer, but I suspect Ches is now a cut above.

How did Cheserek develope so much speed all of a sudden at his age?

How did Cheserek beat the times of past indoor mile studs from the 80’s that were suspected of doping?

You do realize he ran 3:52 a year ago, right?

NFW wrote:

Kerr surprised everyone with his close last year, including a possibly overconfident Cheserek. Given the knowledge of their previous meeting, Edward would obviously take a different approach to his race strategy.

Assuming he went straight to the front and ran 56, 58, & 58 for a 2:52ish 1200, as long as he closes in 59 or better, he wins that race 9 out of 10 times.

With Haas in his corner calling these shots, the smart money would be on King Ches.

You think Ches is running a 3:51 full mile from the front with no rabbit? That's laughable. Anyways, Kerr ran 3:54 a month ago. I'd assume he's in 3:52 shape by now.

I don't think Rojo/Jon Gault are crazy. These blazing indoor miles at BU are entertaining but overrated. Reminder: Galen Rupp ran 3:50 in the same conditions.

Curious if VTech gets all 3 guys in the finals do they have some team tactics ready for Kerr?

rojo wrote:

NFW wrote:

Kerr surprised everyone with his close last year, including a possibly overconfident Cheserek. Given the knowledge of their previous meeting, Edward would obviously take a different approach to his race strategy.

Assuming he went straight to the front and ran 56, 58, & 58 for a 2:52ish 1200, as long as he closes in 59 or better, he wins that race 9 out of 10 times.

With Haas in his corner calling these shots, the smart money would be on King Ches.

You think Ches is running a 3:51 full mile from the front with no rabbit? That's laughable. Anyways, Kerr ran 3:54 a month ago. I'd assume he's in 3:52 shape by now.

Ches ran 3:49 a month ago, I’d assume he’s in 3:47 shape by now.

See how dumb that sounds?

There is no credible reason to think that Josh Kerr would be a match for Che’s right now. Just typical rojo-style delusion and hate.

Doidoi wrote:

rojo wrote:

You think Ches is running a 3:51 full mile from the front with no rabbit? That's laughable. Anyways, Kerr ran 3:54 a month ago. I'd assume he's in 3:52 shape by now.

Ches ran 3:49 a month ago, I’d assume he’s in 3:47 shape by now.

See how dumb that sounds?

There is no credible reason to think that Josh Kerr would be a match for Che’s right now. Just typical rojo-style delusion and hate.

How is it laughable to imagine a guy can come within 2-3 seconds of his mile pr running from the front in a high pressure situation? You know, the same guy known to close workouts with efforts near 4:00 or run sub 1:50 repeat 800s.

O’Hare beat Kerr with room spare with a series of low 29s, does that sound out of reach?

The problem here is that you clearly overvalue your own opinions and mistake those for relevant info in a discussion.

If Dani Jones is healthy, I would pick her to give Purrier a run for her money in the 1500, especially if it is strategic. Unfortunately I don't know that she is healthy right now.

Ches ran 3:54.73 in Albuquerque, Kerr ran 4:00. The edge goes to Ches. As far as the other poster wondering why Ches is running so fast; it is simple, he is no longer having to run 3-4 events in a meet week after week after week. He is probably as fresh and as healthy as he has been in years. Oregon was beating the crap out of him for years racing him as often as they did.

fghrunner wrote:

Rooting for cranny in the mile. But i would be very unsurprised to see Dani jones take it. I don’t think Elle will win but I think she’ll finally get her title in the steeple in a few months

I give Purrier about a 5% chance of beating Ostrander in 3K steeple this outdoor season. Purrier has a better chance (50%?) of winning in the mile this weekend or the mile outdoors. The mile is her comparative advantage.

Jonathan Gault wrote:

Though actually, now that I think of it, Chris O'Hare was able to drop Kerr at Millrose by running 3:54 from the front. I'm confident Cheserek could solo a 3:54 flat if he needed to and that might be enough to win.

I'd still love to see them race though.

Thats why I believe he would "destroy" him this year. What Kerr did last year was spectacular but it seems that in almost all of ches's races this year he simply drops the field.

Kerr ran really well to beat Ches, but he was coming off of two races leading up to the final. Had an off race. Ed would win 100%, especially since he’s taken over two seconds off of his mile PR from last year (which was already a world class time). Kerr is over 5 seconds slower PR/SB wise this year.

Rojo, let me ask you this: did you foresee or predict Kerr outclassing Ches last year? I'm pretty sure you didn't. Now this year, with Kerr in position as a heavy favorite, similar to 2k17 Ches, you automatically rule out anyone else'a chances entirely? ("yes, he's going to win") That isn't genius factor, that is dismissiveness, and saying that a man who just ran 3:49 with the last several laps solo should not be favored against an athlete whose indoor mile pr is 10 seconds slower just because on one day he was better isn't genius either. You say your job is to entertain, and in the forums that may be true, but rationality should be a component of that. If you're saying this stuff to be sensationalist and attract eyes, fair enough, but don't be quite so brazen about unsupported, unprovable comparisons. If you actually believe that in a race today, Kerr should be favored against Cheserek, quite simply, I'm disappointed.

Furthermore, other people have bought up great points in that Ches was rode hard for 4 years and in that race he had an off day (and eased up no less). Chances are Josh Kerr as a pro ends up like most European / North American milers...good but not remarkable (unless you are Centro).

These trolling posts really undermine your credibility when it comes to legitimate reporting. They make you seem biased and unable to consider the total picture. Maybe you should troll using an alternate persona.

bleedingblue wrote:

I give Purrier about a 5% chance of beating Ostrander in 3K steeple this outdoor season. Purrier has a better chance (50%?) of winning in the mile this weekend or the mile outdoors. The mile is her comparative advantage.

Purrier - 18ish steeplechases in college career. 8:55 3000m, 4:26 mile.

Ostrander - 4. 8:54 3000m, 15:21 5000m. 4:18 1500m

PRs 9:43 vs 9:41 gonna call that close enough

Allie won last year, ran a 8:59 3k this year indoors, and kicked Purrier's butt in XC.

I started this comment favoring Purrier but I'm thinking Allie's got this in hand unless Purrier steps up her 5k game and runs under 15:40