He says he had no idea what shape he is in. He says those words.
He said he likes to take it out from the front and would always take it out from the front no matter what, aka stupid.
Even Rudisha let someone else take out the 800m in Rio when he realised they had gone out too hard.
Another terrible post by ex-runner.
1. Anyone who has ever trained AT ALL knows that saying "I have no idea what shape I am in" isn't the same as saying "gee, I might be in AR shape, I might be in 1:50 shape. Who knows!" Obviously he has come along a fair bit since the layoff, and is somewhere between the couch and his former 1:43outdoor fitness. Obviously it was his first race of the season and he hadn't set a benchmark in a 2018 race yet ("I have no idea"). Also obviously, he wasn't trained to run his PR this weekend. Of course he knew that.
2. Not stupid. Smart, in fact. He probably has the easiest speed in the business. Runners like that don't run their best times and placings by hanging back. You are just not understanding that for a true 400/800 runner there is no sense at all in coming through 7-8 seconds slower than 400 ability, ever. They will slow down by 2-3 seconds NO MATTER WHAT, and might as well get out fast. Don't bother saying 'but Rudisha even split that one time,' the exception that proves the rule. He ran faster, over and over, off of 49-second splits, and when he ran 51/51-->1:42-high he was in 1:41 if not 1:40 shape.
3. Rudisha has front-run probably 95% of his races. Again, naming the exception where he doesn't shows how uncommon it was for him. If you want to talk about Rudisha's strategy when his is off-fitness, more often that he has hung back and won in those cases, he has started fast and lost. You are actually proving the point that front front-runners have got to front-run.
You are really making out Berian to be way smarter than he is, and for no good reason.
The simplest answer is often the correct one:
He said he had no idea what shape he was in, and he demonstrated that he had no idea what shape he was in.
For you to come in and say actually he did know what shape he was in but he decided to go out really hard because of some next level reason involving running a 600mTT and setting up Brazier for an AR is quite bizzare and far fetched.
My second point is that it's stupid to always take it out hard from the front 'no matter what' because as evidenced by Rudisha in the 2016 final (and Brazier in this race), sometimes an idiot takes it out too hard then comes last. If you race them on the first lap you will come last too.
Don't tell me Brazier is not a 400/800 runner like Berian.
A 51 first lap would have done wonders for Berians last 200m. For a 400/800 guy going 51 then 55 would be a good race.
Don't tell me that the aim of the 800m is to blast 400m and then die. If you think that then you don't understand 800m running. Rudisha typically slows by 2-3 seconds. Not 10.
1. I am not making him out to be particularly smart. I have no idea how smart he is, and I don't think this is about intelligence at all. It is about a racing decision that had a high likelihood of a slow time but also had benefits. (Benefits which you are evidently not smart enough to comprehend.)
2.a. You are talking like someone who has never trained or run a race in his or her life. Of course he would know to within a few seconds where he was at. I am absolutely sure if you had told Berian to run his best possible TT 800 on the weekend, and had him guess his time afterward, he would be within three seconds. Anyone would.
2.b. "No idea" doesn't mean "gee, I might run 1:54, I might run 1:43, I just don't know." It means you haven't done a race or a TT/sim that has you dialed in to a 1-2 second range.
2.c. I would actually say that in the 800 more than other races runners will know where they are at, because you fall off "race pace" workouts so dramatically if you aren't ready for it (i.e. if you are doing "800 workouts" at what is actually your current 600 pace), and they are so comfortable if you are ahead of where you expect to be (i.e. if you are doing "800 workouts" at a pace you could in fact handle for 1000). Berian (like any experienced 800 runner) will no what workouts he was doing when he did his PRs, and he will darn well know if he has been falling off of the same attempts/doing them at a slower pace with max effort.
2.d. I have at no point said he did a 600 TT or paced Brazier. Try reading.
3. If your best time comes with a 49-50 first lap, and only with a 49-50 first lap, running a 49-50 first lap is not dumb. It is perfectly reasonable to just hit that pace and see what happens. If he felt he was probably in 1:46-1:48 shape, with an optimism toward for 1:45, that is not a bad idea at all. In February, any coach wants a runner coming back saying "wow I felt great at 400, held on until 600, but I sure have work to do to close," not "wow I ran five seconds over my PR and it felt so relaxed."
4. Brazier likes to race the 1000 and the mile, and has had success in them. I don't think that Berian has even done these in a meet since going pro. I highly doubt he will compete in a mile, let alone break 4:00 at it. You can say there are "both 400/800 runners" but they are not the same. That is not one category with a bunch of identical runners. (So is Rudisha. So was Juantorena? Do you like all of those guys equally in a mile? Ridiculous.) More importantly, Brazier has had consistent training lately, while Berian has been injured. Comparing their tactical approach in a February event is a useless exercise, like everything you have said on this thread.
"Don't tell me that the aim of the 800m is to blast 400m and then die. If you think that then you don't understand 800m running. Rudisha typically slows by 2-3 seconds. Not 10"
This line shows such poor reading comprehension on your part I won't waste time answering. Read again, maybe more slowly if that helps you.