If all man-made things were wiped out, how long would it take to re-create modern civilization?

Harambe wrote:

You people are all morons or trolling. I don't get it.

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Looking at say the State of Washington. So not too cold, but in winter you’ll need cloths. How many people will be able to make some form of clothing, out of what material, with what, and generally how do you think they will be able to do that? Depending on the month, they may have very little time to figure that out. All the while naked, cold and walking around in bare feet needing to find food. How many foragers are going to find enough edible plants before they freeze to death and starve?

Most people will die

^

that is 100% true and is proven repeatedly wherever there are wars. Millions of refugees result not because of the bombs or bullets, but because the infrastructure gets destroyed - no power, no water, food distribution is interrupted, it quickly becomes impossible to survive in cities and they have to leave and find a place where they can get stuff. They don't just go to the country and live off the land, they have to have assistance agencies take care of them. If that happened everywhere, yes lots of people would die.

Even in the mighty USA, urban areas have about 3 days' food supply on hand. Very precarious. National fuel reserve is something like a few weeks.

The length of time depends on 'memory,' if we remember how we did things and how they were made, it would be quick. But if we had amnesia, thousands of years.

Joe Rogan tried to address a similar sort of question:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf8R5ZlDiJg

Harambe wrote:

Do you realize how large the planet is? Do you realize how quickly populations of game would rebound?

Do you realize how easy it will be to grow crops with even a basic knowledge of modern agriculture?

Do you realize how many smart people are on the earth? They just don't come to these forums.

Maybe my 1 billion estimate was high, but I strongly doubt Earth's population dips below 100 million:

Even at a hunter-gatherer level, Earth can support 100 mil people. This isn't counting sea resources, which will be bountiful.

Agriculture will rebound very fast.

Yawn. 250 years max.

What you are ignoring is the mortality rate in the first few weeks. Yes population will rebound, plants can be grown etc. but that takes time. Time is the big problem. 25 years after the event I am sure there will be areas with plenty of deer for the taking , edible plants will be plentiful and a primitive society will be manufacturing tools based of pre-event knowledge. But you have got to get to that point.

In previous posts I've looked at the resources in my local area and the number of people who will be competing for those resources. The conclusions are scare, I would guess that less than 1 in 260 will still be alive after 100 days. In bigger cities the rate will be much worse. Only in remote rural areas is a number like 1 in 70 that you are predicting, possible.

The earth may be able to support a hunter gatherer population of 100 million but most of those resources are in remote areas, not wandering around urban areas. The large planet works against us in that respect. Agriculture requires seeds and tools. Where is your nearest seed supply? What tools do you have to farm? Yes, the survivors will develop these, but not in the first few weeks.

The human body can only function efficiently for a few days without food. Yes it can survive longer but in those additional weeks the body has almost shutdown. With limited food the survival time is longer but malnourished individuals will be in no fit state to walk, let alone hunt and gather.

The scenario propose by the OP is extremely drastic. The results would be very different if the scenario was we reverted to the technology that existed say, 3000 years ago and had their tools and resources available. Or we were each given 60 minutes in a hardware store before the event.

My feeling is the population will drop way down to something like 25 million and then start the long slow rebound.

I agree, it will be a huge die off. Even if it is summer in the northern hemisphere when it happens. There will be people dying constantly, but the first year will see a few peaks in the death rate.

(Remember in the OPs scenario, the earths resources, plants, and animal populations are returned to their original state. At least that's the way I read it.)

3-4 days, water. This wouldn't be as bad as you think at first. Most of the population lives on rivers. Larger cities are on the coast where rivers are large and wide. All the man made lakes disappear, and rivers (also now free of pollution) will run more and cleaner water. Unfiltered water would get some, but not a ton of people. Meanwhile nearly all of the southern hemisphere dies due to the winter conditions since there is no time to make clothing or shelter.

3-6 weeks, starvation. This would get the most people. Even if you assume cannibalism, that only delays the inevitable. There are no tools to hunt and not enough time to grow crops. Foraging would be the only food source at this stage. The survival rate would be much much worse than the land can support since almost no-one has the skill set necessary to succeed in this scenario. As mentioned, some lucky individuals will live near plentiful and easy food sources.

6-8 months, exposure. The first winter in the northern hemisphere sets in, and causes the second biggest die off. There has been some time to put together crude shelters and clothing, maybe learn how to make a fire. It won't be as bad as the southern hemisphere die-off, but probably will still get everyone where the temps stay at or below freezing for more than a few days at a time.

After the first year, my guess is only 15 million remain (1/500 dead) and the population declines for a few more years, bottoming out around 8 million (1/1000 dead). India, southern China and Africa hold 75% of the worlds population and the rest reside in Central America or various islands. 1% or less live outside of warm climates. Then people start to get the hang of their new environment and progress starts.

Ok, champ wrote:

Looking at say the State of Washington. So not too cold, but in winter you’ll need cloths. How many people will be able to make some form of clothing, out of what material, with what, and generally how do you think they will be able to do that? Depending on the month, they may have very little time to figure that out. All the while naked, cold and walking around in bare feet needing to find food. How many foragers are going to find enough edible plants before they freeze to death and starve?

Most people will die

So let's say this were to happen in early June, and you were in Seattle at that time. What would you do, figure out a way to build shelter, or head south? I think I would head south. Shelter (constructed out of fallen logs and tree branches?) and clothing (animal hides? plant material crudely stitched together?) can probably be figured out by fall, but food storage is going to be tough. There's not much that grows there in winter.

The initial die-off will be massive, but I wonder how much re-population is necessary to build something comparable to today's computers. I reckon it could be done with as few as 150 million - 200 million people.

speculation wrote:

So let's say this were to happen in early June, and you were in Seattle at that time. What would you do, figure out a way to build shelter, or head south? I think I would head south. Shelter (constructed out of fallen logs and tree branches?) and clothing (animal hides? plant material crudely stitched together?) can probably be figured out by fall, but food storage is going to be tough. There's not much that grows there in winter.

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If it’s summer there’s a chance, but if it’s winter and all things disappear - what animal are you able to hunt and kill with nothing to make cloths with before you freeze to death? Even if it’s summer - how many people have the knowledge and ability to catch any animal at all with no guns, knives, rope, etc. The easiest and most plentiful animal to hunt and kill will be humans. Way easier to catch and kill most humans as compared to even a rabbit. Still, how many people will then be able to somehow stitch any animal skin into cloths? How many people know how skin and cure a hide? And do it with no tools?

Few people can survive in the wild with current man made items. A totally naked person with no tools or any knowledge about rudimentary survival skills (making a fire, finding edible plants, etc.)? Even skilled people would be in serious trouble. Very few people would survive.

Human skin wrote:

[quote]speculation wrote:

how many people have the knowledge and ability to catch any animal at all with no guns, knives, rope, etc.

There are a lot of fairly tame animals that aren't afraid of people. Most people could easily seize a raccoon or a duck. Not a squirrel though.

I read a manifesto by this dude name Ted, anyways his manifesto and my personal experience with the industrial world I would be all for going back to pre-industrial society.

smartphone addict wrote:

The wizard also leaves this message behind for every person in his/her language:

“I’ve cast a spell on all of humanity as an experiment. Here’s how it works: everything will remain as is until someone manages to discover a new million-digit prime number. Proof is required, so random guesses aren't allowed. Once that prime number is found, you have the option of reversing the spell and getting back all the man-made objects you had in 2018."

What do you mean by "new" million-digit prime number? I could tell you how to come up with an expression for one in just a couple minutes. It's not a "new" prime though, it's not like there are new ones and old ones or discovered and undiscovered.

Er dude, the world is only 6,000 years old.

By the way, the people who search for large prime numbers sound like gimps.

no chance, mates wrote:How many people even know how to manufacture pencil and paper from scratch?

Nobody, I mean NOBODY, makes a pencil from scratch!

One of the main issues is communication over long distances. How do we get our brightest minds together in one place to exchange knowledge: make metals, building materials, etc and then disseminate that knowledge around the world? You would need a ministry of science city in a central location. Messengers(distance runners would be very important) would need to travel around and recruit knowledgeable people to the city where all the knowledge can be recorded and then copied for distribution around the world. It would take several years to gather the people, record the knowledge, make copies, and send it out by messengers.

Now here’s the interesting thing in our current world 2018. We’re all interconnected with online social media. The best minds don’t need to be in the same spot at the same time to communicate and share ideas. Knowledge isn’t limited to certain texts or universities, Anyone can upload an idea online which can be viewed by MILLIONS! People can get inspired and take the next steps, maybe even in a different direction. People can crowdsource ideas and get results. With all of our minds, ideas, knowledge together in one place what kind of advancements will be made in the next 10 years? The kids growing up today have only known smart phones and FaceTime. What will they be able to develop?

Yeah but how many mpw would you do!?

Spiridon spit out his message and died. Don't be so foolish. The pony express was a much better solution.

This thread is still embarrassing.

Just because you guys have never been on a farm doesn't mean people don't have EXCELLENT knowledge of agriculture.

Most of the effort in early human progress was figuring out how to grow good crops.

We already know how to do that.

100million humans will survive - minimum. Plenty to rebuild society.

Harambe wrote:

This thread is still embarrassing.

Just because you guys have never been on a farm doesn't mean people don't have EXCELLENT knowledge of agriculture.

Most of the effort in early human progress was figuring out how to grow good crops.

We already know how to do that.

100million humans will survive - minimum. Plenty to rebuild society.

Bumping this a year later because it's still that good.

I took a several-years hiatus from letsrun so missed this one until just now. It's an interesting thing to think about, if you subtract the whole wizard part and the thing about the prime numbers. The people who think human society could EVER be brought back from such an event simply must have zero, or near to zero, experience of the natural world. Everyone would be dead. Every single human being on earth. It would be like cutting the legs off a spider and expecting it to survive somehow. No. Everyone would be dead, everywhere. Including the 3rd world countries some posters seem to think still exist in stone age conditions. Go have a look at some subsistence farmer in guatemala or laos or angola. There isn't a place or a people left on earth whom substances like steel and plastic haven't touched.

Everyone would be dead. Everyone. The human organism would not survive this, as a species. The people talking about "keeping the scientists and mathematicians alive long enough to..." are discounting the world of misery that EVERYONE would be in, for the rest of their fairly short lives. I didn't see the factor of total depression mentioned once in this thread. I guess that's because it would be pretty low on the list of stuff by which every person would be daily assailed. But should be mentioned anyway. You are all, and eggheads especially, going to be in such constant discomfort and hopelessness the LAST thing on anyone's mind is going to be how to re-invent the calculator. And if it doesn't happen within about 30 years, sorry, it's never happening. One generation's removal from the conveniences of this age and all of it's gone forever. Your cave-children aren't going to understand or care enough to keep the efforts alive once you're gone. And that's a good thing.

What I don't understand is why anyone would WANT to re-instate the world we have today, if some stroke of magic instantly reset all the misery the human organism has wrought on its environment. If the prime number salvation scenario were really a part of it, I truly hope there would be a large, large segment of the very very small number of humans able to survive who would dedicate significant efforts when / where appropriate to making sure that magic prime number was never found.

I hope to think that the type of humans able to somehow survive or thrive in such a hostile environment would have no interest in resurrecting THIS poisoned human society.

Farmers

Engineers

Construction workers

Mechanics

Factories

Repeat.

Otherwise, no food, no heat, no electricity, no fuel, no vehicles, no roads, short life span, no nothin'.