Do you remember this prediction from Mr. Kellogg:
With all due respect to Ross Tucker and Steve Magness, who have given their thoughts on Eliud Kipchoge‘s sub-2 attempt this weekend, we started LetsRun.com to spread the gospel of our old running mentor John Kellogg. So I decided to reach out to Mr. Kellogg, LetsRun.com’s coaching/stats guru, for his thoughts on the sub-2 attempt.
“[And if he sticks to sub-2 pace past halfway], I think he might bonk and not break the world record. I mean how many big positive split world records do you see?” said Kellogg before noting that it does happen as Mary Keitany did it on the women’s side in London for the women’s-only world record. In London, Keitany ran her second half 3:07 slower than her first half.
John Kellogg showing off his basketball skills yesterday before making his prediction. (YouTube)
We then asked Mr. Kellogg for how long he thought Kipchoge could keep up 1:59:59 pace if he just keeps running that pace until he drops.
“I think if he sticks with the 1:59:59 pace for as long as he possibly can, I think he’ll make it BETWEEN 19.75 and 20.00 miles (Very precise prediction by Mr. Math Whiz = Ha Ha Ha) said Mr. Kellogg, who has a masters degree in mathematics, explaining that he came up with that estimate simply by comparing the pace Kipchoge is trying to run (4:34.57 mile pace) with the pace for half marathon world record (4:27.21) and marathon world record (4:41.36).
"There is a 14.15-second gap (per mile) between the marathon and half marathon world records and Kipchoge is trying to run at a pace that is 52.0% of that difference – and 52% between 13.1 miles and 26.2 miles is 19.91 miles.
“A marathon is not a 20-miler. A lot of people can run hard for 20 miles but you’ve got to pace it properly if you are going to run a good time for all 26.2.
"There could be a really BIG BONK if they force him to stick to that pace.” (Wrong again math whiz!!!)
PS. For the last few years, Mr. Kellogg, who guided LetsRun.com co-founder Weldon Johnson from 30:13 in college to 28:06 post-collegiately, has focused much of his efforts to becoming a cyclist, but he wants it to be known he’s come out of retirement and is coaching runners once again.
He has room to coach three more serious athletes.
If you are interested in being one of these three people, please email him at
johnkelloggcoach@gmail.com
.
He’d like to know your
Running history (injuries, mileage)
PRs
Goals
The price of the coaching plan for unlimited emails/phone calls and individualized training plan is $200 PER MONTH.
http://www.letsrun.com/news/2017/05/john-kellogg-dismisses-eliud-kipchoges-sub-2-chances-unless-hes-got-cheaters-shoes-hes-not-cant-say-anything-impossible-pretty-close-impossible/